Week 11 College Football: Odds, Picks, and Predictions

Week 11 brings some critical matchups as teams jockey for position in conference play and in the College Football Playoff (CFP) race. The SEC features two big showdowns that could shape the playoff fate for a couple of teams, while others aim to solidify their rankings. Let’s dive into some of our best plays for this weekend. Check the odds for this market now:

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Florida at No. 5 Texas (-21.5)

Texas is coming off a bye week after barely squeaking by Vanderbilt. Since returning from injury, quarterback Quinn Ewers has looked average, throwing six touchdown passes, four interceptions, and completing just 66% of his passes. Florida may have to start walk-on QB Aidan Warner, as DJ Lagway could miss the game with a hamstring injury. The Gators have held their own against tough opponents, losing to Texas A&M, Tennessee, and Georgia by 13 points or less.

The Pick: Florida +21.5

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Purdue at No. 3 Ohio State (-38)

In Purdue’s two matchups against top-20 teams, they have been outscored 105-7 by Notre Dame and Oregon. However, the Boilermakers are 3-4 ATS as road underdogs. This spread is massive, and the big question is whether Purdue can score 7-10 points. Ohio State should rack up yards on the ground as Purdue allows 5.1 yards per carry. While Ohio State is 1-2 ATS when favored by 25 points or more, the Buckeyes should be able to score at will.

The Pick: Ohio State -38

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Maryland at No. 1 Oregon (-24.5)

The Ducks continue to dominate and now face a Maryland team coming off a bye. The Terps have a decent run defense, allowing just 3.3 yards per carry, but they’ve given up 40+ points in two Big Ten games. Oregon should find success through the air as Dillon Gabriel has been averaging 296.1 passing yards per game and is a Heisman favorite. The Ducks have no issues scoring in garbage time, so they should cover.

The Pick: Oregon -24.5

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Washington at No. 6 Penn State (-13)

Coming off a loss to Ohio State, Penn State will be eager to get back on track. Fun fact: the Nittany Lions have won by an average of 17 points in games following a loss to the Buckeyes over the past three years. The Huskies are 0-3 on the road in Big Ten action and are likely to be overmatched.

The Pick: Penn State -13

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Nevada at No. 12 Boise State (-25.5)

Boise State continues its push for a playoff spot and is the highest-ranked Group of 5 team in the polls. The Broncos have covered in three home games and have averaged 54 points in those wins. Nevada’s run defense has allowed 188 yards per game over the last four contests and now has to face Ashton Jeanty, who averages 190 yards per game. Good luck to the Wolfpack.

The Pick: Boise State -25.5