2021 NFL MVP Odds – Week 17

There has been a ton of movement in the NFL MVP betting odds over the last week. Aaron Rodgers has gone from a contender to the odds-on favorite in just two weeks, and Tom Brady has moved from odds-on favorite to +550. We are seeing some real stratification as only five players have odds under 28-1, but Cooper Kupp remains an interesting wildcard at that price considering the historic season he is having for the Los Angeles Rams.

Aaron Rodgers

This Week’s Odds: -185

Last Week’s Odds: +145

The push for Aaron Rodgers to win the NFL MVP in consecutive seasons is a little head-scratching. Rodgers has been very good this season, but he hasn’t been anywhere close to head and shoulders better than any other quarterback in the league. He ranks 10^th in passing yards and is tied for fourth in passing touchdowns, and we typically need a player to have outstanding numbers to be named MVP in back-to-back years. Rodgers has thrown fewer interceptions than any other quarterback, and the Green Bay Packers have the best record in the league, but that’s the strength of his case so he shouldn’t be the odds-on favorite.

Tom Brady

This Week’s Odds: +550

Last Week’s Odds: +175

The NFL’s leader in passing yards and touchdown passes is Tom Brady. The GOAT is on the defending Super Bowl champion, and there is real value in him at over 5-1. There’s a good chance we see a strong push for Brady to be named NFL MVP for the fourth time in his career if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers end the season with two convincing wins. That wont be too difficult with the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers left on the schedule, and strong games with stars like Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin out will add to the legend of TB12.

Jonathan Taylor

This Week’s Odds: +600

Last Week’s Odds: +750

Jonathan Taylor is going to lap the field as the NFL’s rushing leader. He has run for over 400 yards more than the next closest running back, posting 1,626 yards (5.5 YPC) and 17 touchdowns. A lot of the value in Taylor to be named NFL MVP is gone, but he still could have a good chance to claim the award. Carson Wentz may not be available this week after testing positive for COVID, and the Indianapolis Colts would likely ride Taylor hard if Wentz can’t go.

Patrick Mahomes

This Week’s Odds: +1100

Last Week’s Odds: +1200

It’s been interesting to see Patrick Mahomes re-emerge as an MVP frontrunner after a poor start to the season. Mahomes doesn’t have the numbers we have come to expect from him, but he ranks fifth in passing yards and is tied for fourth in touchdowns. The Kansas City Chiefs will clinch home field advantage with a win in one of their next two games, so it’s best to avoid Mahomes as he will likely sit out next week if the Chiefs knock off the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.

Josh Allen

This Week’s Odds: +1400

Last Week’s Odds: +3000

Few players have had roller coaster seasons to the degree we have seen with Josh Allen. The Buffalo Bills quarterback was the favorite to win MVP for a while, but then his candidacy fell into a river in November and early December. Allen was great last week against the New England Patriots though, so his odds have been halved.

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