2023 NFL DIVISION, PLAYOFF, CHAMPIONSHIP & SUPER BOWL LVIII PREDICTIONS

By Luis September 28, 2023

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BY ADAM GREENE

It’s that time. We’ve picked the win totals for each team. Now let’s pick who’ll win it all.

AFC

AFC EAST

z – Miami Dolphins: 13-4

x – Buffalo Bills: 12-5

New England Patriots: 7-10

New York Jets: 6-11

Here’s the benefit of putting this together three weeks into the season. I had no doubt the Dolphins would make the playoffs again, but figured they’d be a Wild Card when I crafted my preseason plan. Now? Oh, the sky is the limit and I am completely bought in.

The Bills aren’t going away. As long as Josh Allen protects the ball, this one will go down to the wire. The Jets would have absolutely made the playoffs if Aaron Rodgers wasn’t injured, but now they just get to reload with a high draft pick for next year when he comes back. As for the Pats? Have fun on HBO’s Hard Knocks next year, Super Genius.

AFC NORTH

y – Baltimore Ravens: 12-5

x – Cincinnati Bengals: 10-7

x – Cleveland Browns: 9-8

Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-9

Again, back in the preseason, I would have picked the Bengals and Ravens flipped here, but that 0-2 start, that was nearly 0-3 if the referees hadn’t called back a couple of touchdowns against the Los Angeles Rams Monday night (the first was egregious), was worrisome. They’re obviously still a great team, but one that needs a Joe Burrow at 100 percent to compete for a Super Bowl. An 80 percent Joe Burrow can definitely be a playoff team.

Baltimore lost a dumb game of their own, but I feel as if they’ll take the division with a hobbled Burrow and real offensive coordinator in Todd Monken. Cleveland looks as if they’ll make their fanbase happy with a playoff appearance.

Yes, it’s probably stupid to pick the Steelers to finish with a losing record. It’s never happened under Mike Tomlin, but this isn’t a Tomlin prediction. This is a Matt Canada prediction. We’ll see if it finally happens.

AFC SOUTH

y – Jacksonville Jaguars: 11-6

Tennessee Titans: 8-9

Indianapolis Colts: 6-11

Houston Texans: 5-12

The Jaguars are coming off their own stupid loss, but they’re the only legitimately good team in this division. Every team will take a loss they shouldn’t and win a game they shouldn’t. It happens. It’s why it’s so hard to tank in the NFL.

The Titans are OK and could sneak into a winning record. It all comes out to what they can get out of Ryan Tannehill in his last year with the team. No one expects the Colts or Texans to be above .500. If you’re a fan of either of those teams, all you want to do is see improvement. It does look like, right now, they got the two best quarterbacks out of last year’s draft, but I’m not ready to toss Bryce Young into the trash heap just yet.

AFC WEST

y – Kansas City Chiefs: 12-5

x – Los Angeles Chargers: 10-7

Las Vegas Raiders: 8-9

Denver Broncos: 6-11

There’s not a universe where the Chiefs aren’t winning this division and, frankly, this record prediction might be a little low considering that they have the entire Taylor Swift fanbase behind them now. And here’s the thing, Swifties. We love having you. You’re the best. We love her. We’re super excited that you’ve joined our reindeer games here. Travis Kelce’s jersey sales are up 400 percent and every other TikTok you see is a Swifty discovering that Kelce is a generational talent a legitimately good dude. So this works for all of us.

Los Angeles has too good a roster to miss the playoffs and, if they do, Brandon Staley will be looking for a job next season., The Raiders are still coached by Josh McDaniels, who is in the running with Mike McCarthy as the worst head coach in the league. Sean Payton’s bloom is fully off the rose after giving up 70 points to the Dolphins on Sunday. There’s a good chance he’ll be eating all his Nathaniel Hackett criticism at the end of the season. From his couch.

AFC PLAYOFFS

1. Miami Dolphins

2. Kansas City Chiefs

3. Baltimore Ravens

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

5. Buffalo Bills

6. Cincinnati Bengals

7. Cleveland Browns

AFC WILD CARD

Chiefs 27, Browns 20

Bengals 20, Ravens 17

Bills 31, Jaguars 23

AFC DIVISIONAL ROUND

Bengals 23, Chiefs 20

Dolphins 33, Bills 30

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

Dolphins 31, Bengals 23

NFC

NFC EAST

y – Philadelphia Eagles: 12-5

x – Dallas Cowboys: 11-6

New York Giants: 8-9

Washington Commanders: 6-11

The Eagles already look to have put any Super Bowl hangover behind them, so they’re a safe bet to win the East. The Cowboys are too talented a roster to miss the playoffs, which is pretty much the story of Mike McCarthy’s head coaching career — getting the least out of the most. If they don’t at least make it to the NFC Championship, McCarthy is probably unemployed at the end of the season. Will that happen? Don’t spoil yourself and skip to the end.

There’s no universe where the Giants make a return to the playoffs in spite of Brian Daboll being a solid head coach. Ron Rivera is too good a coach to properly tank for the Commanders, but the dream is over after a 2-0 start. This is a bad team that should trade up in next year’s draft to get its quarterback. I’m feeling Shadeur Sanders.

NFC NORTH

y – GREEN BAY PACKERS: 11-6

x – DETROIT LIONS: 10-7

MINNESOTA VIKINGS: 7-10

CHICAGI BEARS: 4-13

I wrote the Packers off like everyone else in the preseason and Matt LaFleur has proven, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that his coaching record even with Aaron Rodgers was no fluke. This is a very talented team and they should win the division. We all wanted the Lions to be that franchise, but they’re not ready. Playoff ready, sure. They should have made it last season, but they’re not division champions just yet.

Kevin O’Connell is no danger of getting fired, but the Vikings are down this year and will likely stay there after an 0-3 start. It’s time for a complete rebuild and they should lean into it. Matt Eberflus of the Bears has spent the first three weeks of the season trying to prove me wrong on my first head coach fired prediction. He might not make it to Halloween.

NFC SOUTH

y – NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: 10-7

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: 9-8

ATLANTA FALCONS: 7-10

CAROLINA PANTHERS: 3-14

In the preseason I would have picked just one of these teams to make the playoffs, but the first three weeks of the season have not only made me believe that Todd Bowles might survive the entire season (something I and the books never thought possible) but could get his team into the playoffs as well or at least a wining record. The Saints have the best roster and as long as they can keep Derek Carr healthy (apparently a big “if”) they should win it.

Regardless, any NFC South team is one and done in the playoffs. The Falcons and Panthers will both be watching at home, but so far Arthur Smith has kept his head off the chopping block. By picking them to finish 7-10, I guess I’m saying he should stay employed, but that depends solely on who’s out there available as a head coach. Even if Atlanta isn’t completely terrible, they should look for an upgrade if Smith can’t get them into the postseason this year.

NFC WEST

z – SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: 12-5

x – LOS ANGELES RAMS: 11-6

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: 8-9

ARIZONA CARDINALS: 3-14

The 49ers look like the most complete roster in football and their 3-0 start is no illusion. This is a loaded team with a quarterback on the cheapest possible rookie contract. So they might not be done adding players before the trade deadline. The Rams are better than everyone thought (but me) and while that 11-win mark might seem high, they’re making the playoffs. I made the statement all offseason and it’s just as true today — with a healthy Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp, there’s no way there are seven teams in the NFC better than the Rams. Well, they currently don’t have a healthy Kupp, but it turns out they drafted ANOTHER Cooper Kupp in Puka Nacua.

The Seahawks shouldn’t have made the playoffs a season ago and won’t this year. The Cardinals are probably headed for the No. 1 overall pick, in a pitched battle with the Chicago Bears, and each of those teams will have a real decision to make. Caleb Williams vs Kyler Murray/Justin Fields. I like Murray and I like Fields, but I like Williams way better. I know what I’d do, but since I actually root for the Rams in my fandom, I’d love it if he didn’t end up in the NFC West.

NFC WILD CARD ROUND

Eagles 27, Buccaneers 16

Cowboys 23, Packers 20

Rams 31, Saints 17

NFC DIVISIONAL ROUND

49ers 34, Cowboys 19

Eagles 24, Rams 20

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

49ers 24, Eagles 20

SUPER BOWL LVIII

Dolphins 31, 49ers 27

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.