2023 NFL DRAFT GRADES: AFC SOUTH

BY ADAM GREENE

We now hit the AFC South’s draft grades and, oh man, we have to of the weirdest drafts that I can ever remember. One of them was from a contender. The other, well, you’ll just have to see it to believe it.

As usual, here’s the rules. You must have a first-round pick to get an “A” rating of any kind. Picks from Rounds 1-3 should be able to start for your team from Day One, whether you need them to or not. After that, it’s all about trying to steal talent.

Here we go.

HOUSTON TEXANS

Odds to win the Super Bowl: +10000

The Haul: Round 1: CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State, Round 1: Will Anderson, Jr., Edge, Alabama, Round 2: Juice Scruggs, Center, Penn State, Round 3: Tank Dell, WR, Houston, Round 4: Dylan Horton, Edge, TCU, Round 5: Henry To’oTo’o, LB, Alabama, Round 6: Jarrett Patterson, Center, Notre Dame, Round 6: Xavier Hutchinson, WR, Iowa State, Round 7: Brandon Hill, Safety, Pittsburgh

Well, when you take my top ranked quarterback and top ranked edge rusher in back-to-back picks, you’re probably headed to a pretty solid grade. While Bryce Young went No. 1 overall for all the reasons he could have and should have, Stroud was my favorite of this QB class from the start. Houston could have sat around with the No. 12 overall pick and gotten a pretty solid player, but instead decided to push all their chips to the center of the table and grab Will Anderson, Jr. as well with the third pick. All it cost them was 12, the No. 33 overall and a first and third next year. I’m assuming that the 2024 first is one of the picks they got in the Deshaun Watson trade with the Cleveland Browns.

Juice Scruggs meets your starter in Rounds 1-3 requirement. He comes in with a 71.5 Pro Football Focus grade and surrendered exactly one sack last season and three in his entire collegiate career, with two as a full-time starter. Tank Dell, whose name is definitely ironic considering he’s 5-10 and 155 pounds, was insanely productive at the college level. He caught 199 passes, 2,726 yards and 29 touchdowns over the last two seasons for Houston. If he can stay healthy, you’d think that might turn into a solid pick. But, man, 155? Fingers crossed for you buddy. Dylan Horton looks like a guy that can help immediately as well after consecutive 51 tackle seasons for TCU. He had 9 tackles for a loss in 2021 and 15 in 2022 to go with 10.5 sacks. Considering Houston is building from scratch, he’s not a bad end piece to line up across from Anderson. Henry To’oTo’o was my fourth ranked linebacker and they nabbed him in the fifth round. Don’t be surprised to see him take the field in Week 1 as a starter, out of need if nothing else. The Texans took another highly ranked center in the sixth, with Jarrett Patterson notching a 70.5 PFF rating and giving up a total of three sacks, one a year, in three years as a starter for Notre Dame. Xavier Hutchinson in the sixth is another high production wideout, hauling in 107 passes last season for 1,171 yards and six touchdowns. Unlike Tank Dell, he’s built for the NFL at 6-2 and 210 pounds. DeMeco Ryans and general manager Nick Caserio were apparently determined to find somebody who could protect Stroud up front and guys he could throw the ball to. You can’t complain about that.

Grade: A+

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Odds to win the Super Bowl: +10000

The Haul: Round 1: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida, Round 2: Julius Brents, CB, Kansas State, Round 3: Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina, Round 4: Blake Freeland, OT, BYU, Round 4: Adetomiwa Adebawore, DT, Northwestern, Round 5: Daniel Scott, Safety, California, Round 5: Will Mallory, TE, Miami, Round 5: Evan Hull, RB, Northwestern, Round 6: Titus Leo, Edge, Wagner, Round 7: Jaylon Jones, CB, Texas A&M, Round 7: Jake Witt, OT, Northern Michigan University

This draft for the Colts is all about Anthony Richardson. Nothing else matters. They swung for the fences here, grabbing the athletic freakshow that, for whatever reason, never looked all that great in college. I’m not a believer in the “ceiling.” I like to call that a “scout, pundit or GM’s imagination.” But there’s no question that if Richardson can put it all together, Indianapolis has a Cam Newton/Lamar Jackson hybrid. And, if you’re going to play a lottery ticket, there are worse chances to take. Thankfully under the NFL’s collective bargaining agreement, taking a bad QB here doesn’t kill your franchise for a decade, just, three or so years. Which, considering the damage the team had done trying to band aid the position since Andrew Luck retired, probably isn’t the worst idea. Personally, I would have listened to some trade offers and maybe taken Tyree Wilson or Paris Johnson, Jr., then picked up Hendon Hooker in the second round, but, you know, I’m paid to snipe about this stuff on the internet. No one has offered me a job as an NFL scout or general manager. Yet.

Julius Brents didn’t make my corner list because I couldn’t make it 20 players long, but the dude is a specimen. A 6-4, 204 pound corner who can run a 4.53 40 is an interesting prospect. He looks more like a safety to me and, in that position, could probably be a Day One starter. He had a better season in 2022, picking off four passes and allowed just a 57.7 passer rating. That was significantly better than his 2021, when he gave up a 101.9 passer rating. Back in 2020, the passer rating against him was 39.6. So, your guess is as good as mine how he’ll end up as a pro. He’s almost an “Anthony Richardson” at corner type of a player. The Colts rolled the dice more than once in this draft. Josh Downs was a productive wide out for North Carolina and caught 195 passes for 2,364 yards and 19 touchdowns over the last two seasons in a Pro Style offense. He should be a contributor in what is already a pretty good looking Colts wide receiver depth chart.

Blake Freeland is an intriguing prospect at tackle. He put up a massive PFF score at 90.9, but it was with BYU and God only knows how many NFL level pass rushers he faced. I’m already feeling sorry for all the Colts beat writers who have to learn to write Adetomiwa Adabawore all through the preseason, but he had a solid Big Ten resume. Indy took a couple of small school flyers later. The only guy I’d expect anything from is maybe Will Mallory, the tight end out of Miami. He had great production last season with 42 catches for 528 yards and three touchdowns and at 6-5 and 245 pounds, he could act as a nice safety valve for Richardson as he learns the pro quarterback position. Because Richardson, whether he’s ready or not, is going to play. I like Gardner Minshew as much as the next mullet enthusiast, but Richardson’s seeing the field this year. A lot.

Grade: B- (but, like I said, it’s all about Richardson. If he hits, you can’t put enough A+s on this draft)

JACKSON JAGUARS

Odds to win the Super Bowl: +2500

The Haul: Round 1: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma, Round 2: Brenton Strange, TE, Penn State, Round 3: Tank Bigsby, RB, Auburn, Round 4: Ventrell Miller, LB, Florida, Round 4: Tyler Lacy, DE, Oklahoma State, Round 5: Yasir Abdullah, LB, Louisville, Round 5: Antonio Johnson, Safety, Texas A&M, Round 6: Parker Washington, WR, Penn State, Round 6: Christian Braswell, CB, Rutgers, Round 6: Erick Hallett, DB, Pittsburgh, Round 7: Cooper Hodges, OT, Appalachian State, Round 7: Raymond Bohasek, DT, North Carolina, Round 7: Derek Parish, Edge, Houston

This is a weird draft for a team that maybe got into the playoffs (and won a playoff game) a year earlier than they should have. Anton Harrison was my No. 7 ranked offensive lineman, so I have no issue with that pick at all. Where we go awry is our Round 2 pick of Brenton Strange. Now, Strange looks like an NFL player and can absolutely be a starter. But they already had Evan Engram, plus Darnell Washington out of Georgia was right there. You let the Steelers take him in the third and deep in that round. It wasn’t a need and Strange was nowhere near, from my rankings, the best tight end available at the time. As I wrote earlier, we’re looking for starters in Rounds 1-3. You know who’s not going to start ahead Travis Etienne, Jr., the guy I think might be, at worst a Top 3 running back in the NFL right now, is Tank Bigsby. Now, Bigsby is a good running back and he was ranked fourth on my own pre-draft rankings. But Etienne is an every down back and, barring injury, won’t leave the field. Now, maybe you can make the argument that Bigsby is a good insurance pick for that very situation. But, again, they could have taken Washington after whiffing on him in Round 2 there, Jordan Battle at safety, Kalee Ringo or Clark Phillips III at corner or another guy that could produce for you this year as a legitimate starting player and not a guy setting a new Fruit Ninja high score on his Microsoft Surface tablet on the sideline. And when that fourth round pick rolled around, they could have taken Israel Abanikanda out of Pitt, who ended up on the New York Jets. And, yes, I like Bigsby better than Adanikanda, but unless something catastrophic happens to Etienne, he’d get just as much work in 2023 as Bigsby will. Which, I guess, is keeping a solid Wordle streak alive. Adinikanda scored 21 touchdowns in the ACC last season for God’s sake and rushed for 1,431 yards. But, hey, Doug Pederson has won a Super Bowl. All I’ve done is watch them (and win some money on them).

After those first three rounds, they could have nabbed a potential steal in the fifth with Yasir Abdullah as an edge rusher. He had 31 tackles for a loss and 19.5 sacks over the last two seasons with Louisville in the ACC and dropped probably because he’s undersized at 6-1, 235. Worth the flyer for sure. Derek Parish in the seventh looks like a waste of a pick to me. Not that he can’t make a team, but he’s been hurt two of the last three seasons and, even his best year, he managed just five sacks. He played in all of four games in 2022 and I’m comfortable that he would have been available as a UDFA. Again, a weird, weird draft for the Jags that I can’t see paying off this season at all.

Grade: C+

TENNESSEE TITANS

Odds to win the Super Bowl: +8000

The Haul: Round 1: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern, Round 2: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky, Round 3: Tyjae Spears, RB, Tulane, Round 5: Josh Whyle, TE, Cincinnati, Round 6: Jaelyn Duncan, OT, Maryland, Round 7: Colton Dowell, WR, Tennessee-Martin

Speaking of weird drafts, we are wrapping up with the Tennessee Titans what will either be a triumphant set of picks for head coach Mike Vrabel after he won his battle with former General Manager Jon Robinson, or the draft that will be mentioned in every single article written about Vrabel’s firing two years from now. Because everything that happened here after the first round is mind blowing to me. Peter Skoronski was my favorite offensive tackle headed into this draft and I wasn’t the only one who liked him, considering he was the odds on favorite to be the first one taken off the board. Turns out, he was third selected and that’s OK. The guys taken ahead of him, Paris Johnson, Jr, was my No. 3 and Darnell Wright was my No. 5. Every one of those guys will start for a decade or more at tackle, so there’s no problem there.

It’s Round 2 where this draft goes completely off the rails. Quarterback Will Levis was my fourth rated quarterback behind, not Anthony Richardson (who I had seventh), but behind CJ Stroud, Bryce Young and University of Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker. Now, I will confess to you that I am from Tennessee and still live in Tennessee. And while I did not go to the University of Tennessee (I went to Carson-Newman University, an NCAA Division II school), they’re still my favorite D-1 team. Because, they’re literally an hour away from my house. Who the hell else would I like? I’ve covered their games back when I was a regular sports journalist. I like them. And I can tell you, without a shadow of a doubt, that Hooker is the most popular player to come out of Tennessee since Eric Berry and the most popular quarterback since Peyton Manning. To compare his last two seasons at Tennessee to Levis’ at Kentucky, is a joke. And they both played pretty much the same schedule in the SEC East. Hooker threw five interceptions total as a starter for Tennessee. Levis threw 10 last year. Hooker threw 58 touchdown passes and if you add what he did with his legs in his two seasons, he was responsible for 68 touchdowns. Last year, he led the Volunteers to their biggest win since God only knows (I’m not even going to look it up), when they knocked off Alabama 52-49. Hooker outplayed No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young in the game. Young was 35 of 52 for 455 yards, two touchdowns and no picks. Hooker was 21 of 30 for 385 yards, five touchdowns, one interception and rushed for 56 yards in the win.

And the Titans, who play in Tennessee, took Levis over Hooker? That is insane. And it’s even crazier when you look at how the draft fell for what could have been one of the greatest, most popular Tennessee Titans drafts of all time. They traded up to No. 33 pick to take Levis, sending them the 41^st and 72^nd picks to do it. Do you know who was still available at No. 72? Vols wide receiver Jalin Hyatt. The Titans could have taken Hooker at 42 (he went at No. 68 overall to the Detroit Lions) and taken Hyatt at 72 (he went at No. 73 to the New York Giants who traded up to that spot with the Los Angeles Rams to grab him).

I am flabbergasted by this. Dumbfounded. I’m going to keep going to the thesaurus to find words to describe how absolutely moronic this draft was for the Titans. Astonished. Befuddled, Perplexed. Stunned. Addled. Like I said, pick your word. This was, across the board, a disaster.

Now, obviously, if Hooker bottoms out and Levis becomes a franchise quarterback, Vrabel and new Titans GM Ran Carthon, can have a big laugh at all of our expenses. I am not rooting against Will Levis. I write consistently that there are 32 franchises in the NFL, but there are not 32 NFL franchise quarterbacks on Planet Earth. So, if Levis turns into one, I will happily eat all of these words.

But, if the grades were even close between him and Hooker (and they weren’t, not for me, not for plenty of us), then Dear God, this draft will haunt Mike Vrabel and the Titans for the next decade. Or, at least it will the Titans. Vrabel will be a defensive coordinator at Alabama trying to resurrect his career with Nick Saban as all the other cast-off failures do.

Their third rounder, Tulane running Tyjae Spears, is a waste of a potential starting pick because they have Derrick Henry. You want a starter in the third. Not a guy that’s going to not even need his helmet on Sundays barring a catastrophic injury to one of the best backs in the game. And if you were going to go with a smaller guy, why not Devon Achanem who went three picks later and actually played in the SEC (and was my No. 2 rated running back). Oh, and Darnell Washington and Jordan Battle were both still there too.

This Titans draft after the first round was a farce.

Grade: D (and that might be generous, but, again, if Levis is a franchise guy, none of the rest of this matters)

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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