2023 NFL DRAFT GRADES: NFC NORTH

BY ADAM GREENE

We are progressing through our draft grades and now park our attention on the NFC North, a division that will look very different with the absence of Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay this season.

There are plenty of expectations still coming out of this four team group, mainly focused on the Detroit Lions. Punditry is in love Dan Campbell and his crew and they are fun, but people seem to forget that the Minnesota Vikings went 13-4 and wont he division a year ago and did nothing to get worse this season. Also, I don’t understand the preseason faith put into the Rodgers-less Packers. I’m seeing a lot of high bars for Jordan Love that he has not proven he can even touch on his tippy toes so far. Expectations seem a tad high there.

But we’re talking the draft here, handing out marks that, while they don’t go into the permanent record, might still make some parents happy (or angry).

The rules remain the same for grading. To achieve an “A” grade of any type, a team must have owned and used a first round pick. Players taken in Rounds 1-3 should be seen as capable of starting in the NFL on Opening Day, even if they don’t because someone is ahead of them on the depth chart. The only exception to that rule is for quarterbacks, who might have to rightly sit for a while, even if they are selected on Day One or Two.

You can boost your grade, obviously, by stealing good players in later rounds, but that’s all based on subjective scouting, specifically mine (and Pro Football Focus’s).

CHICAGO BEARS

Odds to win the Super Bowl: +6600

The Haul: Round 1: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee, Round 2: Gervon Dexter, Sr., DT, Florida, Round 2: Tyrique Stevenson, CB, Miami, Round 3: Zacch Pickens, DT, South Carolina, Round 4: Roschon Johnson, RB, Texas, Round 4: Tyler Scott, WR, Cincinnati, Round 5: Noah Sewell, LB, Oregon, Round 5: Terrell Smith, CB, Minnesota, Round 7: Travis Bell, DT, Kennesaw State, Round 7: Kendall Williamson, DB, Stanford

The Bears have gone “all in” on Justin Fields and I am “all in” for it. Fields was my No.2 ranked quarterback in that 2021 NFL Draft class, behind Trevor Lawrence, and my opinion certainly hasn’t changed at all. While the Bears didn’t win games on the “field,” Fields won plenty of teams fantasy football championships and my guess is he’ll be taken VERY high in most fantasy drafts this season. But Chicago had a lot of work to do and luckily, in addition to the pick haul they got from the Carolina Panthers for the No. 1 overall selection, the Big Cats also tossed in a star wide receiver, DJ Moore. So, I feel like you have to count him in this class too. It’s like getting an extra Top 10 pick in the trade.

As for the picks they made in this draft, Darnell Wright was my fifth ranked offensive lineman and all but one of those guys went in the first, so grabbing him here is perfectly fine. Gervon Dexter, Sr. looks like a physical specimen, but I’m not nuts about his stat output at Florida against SEC competition. It’s why he was nowhere near my pre draft defensive lineman list. He’s a run stopping tackle who will play in a league (and division) that’s not especially nuts about running the ball. But, a 55 tackle, four for a loss, two sack year isn’t terrible. It just doesn’t look like a second rounder to me. His Pro Football Focus grade of 65.7 means my own eyes probably don’t deceive me. Tyrique Stevenson is a better second round pick out of Miami. He posted a 76.5 PFF grade, picked off a couple of passes and allowed only three touchdowns and a 78.4 passer rating. All up from his previous season, which was his best. He allowed just two TDs and a 69,1 passer rating in 2021.

I actually like Zacch Pickets in the third better than Dexter, so they at least have a shot at one of them panning out. Roschon Johnson was my fifth ranked running back coming into the draft, so I have no complaints grabbing him in the fourth. I think he’ll take over as the starter halfway through the season at worst. Tyler Scott was my No. 6 wideout, so adding him in that same round is a coup and, he too, could be in the starting line up quicker than people expect. Noah Sewell didn’t have a great 2022, but his 2021 for the Ducks was incredible, with 114 tackles (more than double his number in last season) to go with four sacks, a pick, five passes defended and two forced fumbles. If he’d done that in 2022, he would have definitely gone higher. So the potential is there. Terrell Smith and Kendall Williams are probably both special teamers at best. Travis Bell, with just 34 tackles, 5.5 for a loss and 1.5 sacks at Kennesaw State looks like a guy that could have been plucked off the street as a UDFA and expected not to make the team. As a seventh rounder, he’s not much of a risk, but honestly, he doesn’t look like much of a pick. I would say it wouldn’t surprise me to see him cut in the preseason, but the Bears are in such bad shape, roster-wise, that he could make the team just out of necessity. Which could be why they made that selection, and took three interior defensive lineman specifically, in the first place.

Grade: B- (A- when you include DJ Moore)

DETROIT LIONS

Odds to win the Super Bowl: +2500

The Haul: Round 1: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama, Round 1: Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa, Round 2: Sam LaPorta, TE, Iowa, Round 2: Brian Branch, CB, Alabama, Round 3: Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee, Round 3: Brodric Martin, DT, Western Kentucky, Round 5: Colby Sorsdal, OT, William & Mary, Round 7: Antoine Green, WR, North Carolina

My love for Jahmyr Gibbs was no secret before the draft. He was my favorite running back coming out and reminded me, in so many ways, of Todd Gurley. Apparently, I wasn’t the only one to see that as the Lions snapped up Gibbs with their first pick to pair with Jared Goff, whose best seasons were with Gurley as his backfield mate with the Los Angeles Rams. All it did was get the team to a Super Bowl in the 2018-19 season. While Jack Campbell was my No. 2 linebacker, I have no issue at all taking him in the first. His production at Iowa was stratospheric and he’s a potential Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate already. Sam Laporta, in the second, was my fourth ranked tight end and getting Brian Branch, my top rated safety and corner (whichever place you want to put him) that late in the second is just outrageous. As I mention in the preamble, you can’t count quarterbacks against our “starters in the first three rounds” rule, but Hooker was my No. 3 ranked quarterback. I thought he was going to go late in the first so getting him here, as insurance for Goff at worst, is a steal. If they both work out, and they could, you could trade one or the other for some serious draft capital down the road. Look at what the New England Patriots did with Jimmy Garoppolo. Brodric Martin had a solid PFF grade of 71.9, but I don’t see the production that would make me take him in the third, especially coming out of Western Kentucky. But, if he’s the lone single out of a draft with all triples and home runs before that, Detroit will be fine.

Colby Sorsfal picked up an 89.9 PFF Grade and I have to trust them. I have no clue about William & Mary Football and would have never known this kid existed outside of the draft and Senior Bowl process. The Lions are already loaded at receiver, but Antoine Green looks the part and was a value pick in the seventh after catching 43 passes in nine games for 798 yards and seven touchdowns for the Tarheels last season.

Grade: A+

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Odds to win the Super Bowl: +5000

The Haul: Round 1: Lukas Van Ness, LB, Iowa, Round 2: Jayden Reed, WR, Michigan State, Round 3: Tucker Kraft, TE, South Dakota State, Round 4: Colby Wooden, LB, Auburn, Round 5: Sean Clifford, QB, Penn State, Round 5: Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Virginia, Round 6: Karl Brooks, LB, Bowling Green, Round 6: Anders Carlson, Kicker, Auburn, Round 7: Carrington Valentine, CB, Kentucky, Round 7: Lew Nichols III, RB, Central Michigan, Round 7: Anthony Johnson, Jr., Safety, Iowa State, Round 7: Grant DuBose, WR, Charlotte

A new era dawns in Green Bay with a draft that looks pretty much like every draft they’ve run in recent memory, as they took a defensive player in the first and didn’t address their wide receiver needs until the second. Lukas Van Ness was my third ranked edge rusher and, considering that he was the third to come off the board, I feel like that was pretty much universal. Jayden Reed was my No. 9 wide receiver, so the Pack, at least, got a starter level pass catcher with their second rounder. And, like I said, this is what they do. There’s only so much college football one human can watch and Tucker Kraft wasn’t on my radar pre draft, but PFF gave him a 79.9 grade. His stats don’t jump off the page to me, and I feel like they should at the FCS level if you’re a Round 1-3 selection.

Colby Wooden made none of my lists, but that doesn’t mean he wouldn’t have if I’d gone  to 12 on edge rushers or 10 on linebackers. He brings a lot of ability to do both jobs after a 45 tackle, 11.5 for a loss and six sack season at Auburn in 2022 to go with three passes defended, two fumble recoveries and three forced fumbles. At 6-5 and 278, that looks like as good as it can get in a fourth rounder. Certainly, if you’d switched him and Kraft, I’d have no issues at all. Sean Clifford, even as a fifth rounder, looks as if he was taken a tad high. But, there was a run on quarterbacks and, if Matt LaFleur likes him, there was no reason not to pull the trigger. He was definitely draftable after a 64.4 percent, 2,822 yards, 24 passing touchdown, five rushing touchdown and seven pick season with Nittany Lions. Dontayvion Wicks had a significantly less productive season in 2022 than he did the season before for the Cavaliers. In 2021, he had 57 receptions for 1,207 yards and nine touchdowns in 12 games. Last year was bad, with just 30 catches for 430 yards and two touchdowns and Wicks injured his hip at the NFL Combine and couldn’t work out the whole time. Green Bay apparently had seen enough, or certainly feels as if that 2021 season is more representative of what he can do.

Like Wooden in the fourth, Karl Brooks can bring the heat from the edge as well as play the regular outside linebacker role. He had 50 tackles, 18 for a loss and 10 sacks for Bowling Green last year, which are great stats, but also against MAC competition. As a sixth rounder, though? You take a guy like that every time. Anders Calrson is huge for a kicker, at 6-5 and 218 pounds. He projected as an undrafted free agent, but most kickers and punters do. And if you need one, and the Packers did, you better take one while you have the pick of the litter. Grant DuBose, Anthony Johnson and Carrington Valentine all look like good selections where they were taken. You’re basically grabbing scratch offs in Rounds 6-7 and if you get special teamers out of it, you’ve won something. Anything more and you’ve won big. Lew Nichols III, in the seventh, is very intriguing because his 2021 production was through the roof. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry, rushed for 1,848 yards and 16 touchdowns and caught 40 passes for 338 yards and two touchdowns. He was injured much of last year and his production was way down before he finally just called it a career in early December to try to train and get healthy for the draft. Nichols is exactly the kind of running back Green Bay seems to consistently find and get the most from. As I said earlier, this is a very Packers draft. This is pretty much how they handle it every season.

Grade: B+

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Odds to win the Super Bowl: +4500

The Haul: Round 1: Jordan Addison, WR, USC, Round 3: Mekhi Blackmon, CB, USC, Round 4: Jay Ward, CB, LSU, Round 5: Jaquelin Roy, DT, LSU, Round 5: Jaren Hall, QB, BYU, Round 7: DeWayne McBride, RB, UAB

Pairing Jordan Addison, who was my No. 2 wide receiver in this draft and reminds me a lot of former St. Louis Rams great (and Pro Football Hall of Famer) Isaac Bruce, with Justin Jefferson seems unfair. Kevin O’Connell is apparently unphased by what he’s about to unleash upon the NFC North with this wide receiver tandem and he should really be ashamed. Mekhi Blackmon didn’t make my Top 10 corners list, but that’s only because I cut it off at 10. He looks like a prototype NFL corner, played incredible against legit competition and put up a 90.6 PFF grade, allowing just one touchdown and a 46.1 passer rating when targeted for the Trojans.

Jay Ward is more of a project, but comes with an LSU pedigree. He didn’t show much on the field, and was picked on with the Tigers, allowing a 99.9 QB rating when targeted so the Vikings must see something raw, very raw, there to have taken him in the fourth. Jacquelin Roy looks like a decent enough fifth round pick. He posted a 71.4 PFF grade to go with his 49 tackles, 3.5 for a loss and half a sack for LSU last year. I don’t care about his stats or measurables, Jarren Hall was never a guy I would have considered drafting. I don’t trust BYU stats against their schedule. He might be draftable, but I can’t see using a fifth on him. DeWayne McBride was a beast for UAB over the last two seasons. He rushed for 1,713 yards and 19 touchdowns last year, averaging 7.4 yards per carry. The year before, he averaged 6.7 yards per carry to go with 1,371 yards and 13 touchdowns. That is a card you happily turn in as a seventh round selection, especially if he’s your final pick of the draft.

Grade: C+

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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