2023 NFL DRAFT GRADES: NFC SOUTH

BY ADAM GREENE

That’s right. I still have my reading glasses perched atop the bridge of my nose and we’re dishing out draft grades. The NFC South was the worst division in football a season ago, with the 8-9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking the title and home playoff game, only to lose immediately in the Wild Card in blowout fashion to the Dallas Cowboys.

All three of the other teams finished 7-10 and all were in the playoff hunt down to the wire. The fact that the Carolina Panthers, after firing their head coach, Matt Rhule, remained in contention speaks to both the job interim head coach Steve Wilks did and also how bad this division was.

The draft grade rules remain the same. To receive an “A” a team must have and use a first round pick. Any player selected in Rounds 1-3 must be able to start from day one, even if he’s not a starter on the depth chart. The only exception there is with quarterbacks, because sometimes they need to sit, especially if they’re not taken high in the first.  

ATLANTA FALCONS

Odds to win the Super Bowl: +6600

The Haul: Round 1: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas, Round 2: Matthew Bergeron, OT, Syracuse, Round 3: Zach Harrison, Edge, Ohio State, Round 4: Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah, Round 7: DeMarcco Hellams, Safety, Alabama, Round 7: Jovaughn Gwyn, OG, South Carolina

I sincerely didn’t think a running back would go in the first round and projected it that way in both my mock drafts. That doesn’t mean I have any issue at all with the Falcons taking Bijan Robinson with their first round pick. And I definitely had no issue with the Detroit Lions taking my favorite back coming out of college, Jahmyr Gibbs. Robinson, for the record, was my third ranked running back, so he was obviously valued a lot more by the rest of draft punditry as well as Atlanta than by me. He looked like a throwback runner to my eyes, someone who would have definitely been a first rounder in 1992, if not a Top 5 pick. He’s already a potential Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate and a solid bet to get all the touches required, thanks to the Falcons’ offense, to make that happen. Matthew Bergeron didn’t make my offensive linemen list, thanks to surrendering five sacks and four QB hits last season, but still posted a 75.2 Pro Football Focus rating and will move inside and play right guard for Atlanta. ESPN already has him posted as the starter on their depth chart. Zach Harrison was a solid selection in the third. He was awarded an 86.1 PFF score and recorded 34 tackles, eight for a loss, 3.5 sacks, one interceptions, four passes defended and three forced fumbles last year for Ohio State against some of the best competition in college football.

The Falcons aced the fourth round, grabbing the talented, but undersized corner Clark Phillips III out of Utah. I had Phillips ranked No. 10 on my pre-draft corners list, and should slide into that slot/nickel corner spot from Week 1 on. With plenty of time to think about it and no picks in the fifth or sixth rounds, Atlanta grabbed Alabama’s odd safety out in DeMarcco Hellams. He was just another Bama DB who managed 108 tackles, one sack, an interception, seven passes defended, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery. At 6-1, 208 there’s a chance Atlanta found a future starter at a position they just paid Jessie Bates III a ton of money to take over in free agency. Jovaughn Gwyn added some value in the seventh, posting a 68.0 PFF grade after surrendering just two sacks last season against SEC competition with South Carolina.

Grade: B

CAROLINA PANTHERS

Odds to win the Super Bowl: +6600

The Haul: Round 1: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama, Round 2: Jonathan Mingo, WR, Ole Miss, Round 3: DJ Johnson, Edge, Oregon, Round 4: Chandler Zavala, OG, NC State, Round 5: Jammie Robinson, Safety, Florida State

While I had Bryce Young listed as my second overall quarterback, I have no issue with the Panthers taking him over CJ Stroud. There wasn’t a huge difference between the two, scout wise. I liked Stroud better simply because I feel he can last longer in the NFL, with the prototype body. Guys that have been Young’s size, Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray, struggle to stay healthy all season and it’s cost some good teams come December and January. Young wasn’t fully healthy with Bama this last season and it’s not going to get any easier in Carolina. In spite of trading DJ Moore to the Chicago Bears as part of their package to acquire the No. 1 overall selection, the Panthers aren’t in bad shape at receiver. Jonathan Mingo isn’t a bad pick as a second rounder, but there were plenty of guys I liked better than him still on the board, namely Biletnikoff Award winner Jaylin Hyatt, who went a round later to the New York Giants and Marvin Mims, Jr., who landed with the Denver Broncos in the bottom of the second. Mingo looks like an NFL receiver and recorded a 76.9 PFF grade in Lane Kiffen’s Ole Miss offense. He’s been professionally coached, that’s for sure. Last year he broke out for the Rebels, grabbing 51 passes for 861 yards and five touchdowns. DJ Johnson out of Oregon in the third was a value pick. PFF didn’t like him as much as I did, handing him a 66.4 grade, but I look at 39 tackles, 8.5 for a loss and six sacks with two passes defended and one fumble recovery against a PAC-12 schedule (to go with a 6-4, 258 pound frame) and see an NFL player that can start opposite Brian Burns before the year’s up.

Chandler Zavala was a smart pick in the third. The guard from NC State posted a 76.0 PFF grade in 2022 and gave up zero sacks, just one QB hit and three QB hurries. He’s currently listed as third on the Panthers’ right guard depth chart, but he might move up a tad by preseason’s end. Jammie Robinson posted 99 tackles, five for a loss, one sack, a pick, five passes defended and a fumble recovery and was a four year starter for Florida State and South Carolina. He only got better every year and could very well find himself in the Panthers’ starting defensive backfield before the year’s over.

Grade: B+

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Odds to win the Super Bowl: +5000

The Haul: Round 1: Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson, Round 2: Isaiah Foskey, Edge, Notre Dame, Round 3: Kendre Miller, RB, TCU, Round 4: Nick Saldiveri, OG, Old Dominion, Round 4: Jake Haener, QB, Fresno State, Round 5: Jordan Howden, Safety, Minnesota, Round 6: AT Perry, WR, Wake Forest

The Saints put together a draft that you normally would see out of the Las Vegas Raiders in season’s past. Bryan Bresee was a quality pick out of Clemson and absolutely deserved to be a first rounder. I thought he’d just go later, but he was my No. 4 ranked defensive lineman in this draft. But to get Isaiah Foskey in the second, who I loved, out of Notre Dame and had ranked seventh on my pre-draft edge rushers list, was an absolute coup. I liked Foskey better than Bresee, but to get them both? Just outstanding. Kendre Miller in the third makes a lot of sense for a team probably moving on from Alvin Kamara either this season before the trade deadline or after. Kamara’s got plenty of football left in him, but the phone lines are open in New Orleans. Make no mistake.

Nick Saldiveri looks like a future interior offensive line starter to me. He’s already listed as second on the depth chart on ESPN’s website and posted a 72.2 PFF grade, giving up zero sacks in 2022. He surrendered just two QB hits, but did have 16 hurries count against him last season. Jake Haener, in the fourth, looks like a pick made so Derek Carr can have a buddy in the QB room. There’s no question Carr and Haener are well acquainted, as Carr has remained involved in the Fresno State program and has been friends with the rookie QB for years. I mean, if they have a similar game, this is the whole reason you draft a back up quarterback. You want a guy that can run your offense. Haener, obviously, has a lot of Carr-like qualities, so why not? Especially with the run on quarterbacks that happened in the fourth. Jordan Howden looks like a fifth rounder, a scratch off as I call them. Guys that can, at worst, be solid special teamers, but could sneak into starting roles. AT Perry out of Wake Forest had some ridiculous production against an ACC schedule, catching 81 passes for 1,096 yards and 11 touchdowns last season. He had an even better year in 2021 with 71 grabs for 1,293 yards and 15 scores. He’s 6-5, 206 pounds and was there in the sixth round. I tear an ACL running that draft card onto the stage.

Grade: A-

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Odds to win the Super Bowl: +10000

The Haul: Round 1: Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh, Round 2: Cody Mauch, OT, North Dakota State, Round 3: YaYa Diaby, DE, Louisville, Round 5:SirVocea Dennis, LB, Pittsburgh, Round 5: Payne Durham, TE, Purdue, Round 6: Josh Hayes, DB, Kansas State, Round 6: Trey Palmer, WR, Nebraska, Round 6: Jose Ramirez, Edge, Eastern Michigan

I thought that Calijah Kancey, who I had ranked as my third best defensive lineman in this crop, a spot ahead of Bresee, would sneak into the second or even third because of his size. Turns out, the Buccaneers scouting team agreed with me. Kancey was one of the two guys, along with Tuli Tuipulotu, who I thought had Aaron Donald like qualities. And even if these guys get within sniffing distance of what Donald can do, like 80 percent of Aaron Donald, that’s probably a consistent Pro Bowler right there. Cody Mauch, even out of FCS North Dakota State, was my No. 6 ranked offensive lineman and went right where he should have, in the bottom half of the second round. YaYa Diabi had fantastic production for Louisville against an ACC schedule. He posted a 74.2 PFF grade with 37 tackles, 14 for a loss and nine sacks to go with two passes defended and two fumble recoveries. That appears to meet the third round standard for me.

SirVocca Dennis was very productive at linebacker for Pitt, recording 94 tackles, 12 for a loss, seven sacks, one interception, three passes defended and two forced fumbles. Payne Durham looks like an NFL prototype TE2. He’s 6-5 and 255 pounds. Durham caught 56 passes for 560 yards and eight touchdowns for Purdue a year ago. Durham could see a lot of action with the starting unit this season. Josh Hayes has just one year playing college football as a starter, but it was a good one. He finished with 71 tackles for Kansas State with 5.5 for loss and seven passes defended. Trey Palmer benefited from the transfer portal and the chance to start at Nebraska after being buried on LSU’s depth chart. He caught 71 passes for 1,043 yards and nine touchdowns for the Cornhuskers. Tampa is very deep at wide receiver, so if Palmer is going to see the field at all, it’ll be on special teams. Jose Ramirez put up crazy numbers for Eastern Michigan, finishing his 2022 campaign with 66 tackles, 19.5 for a loss, 12 sacks, two passes defended, one fumble recovery and two forced fumbles. My rule for small conference and FCS guys is they should look like men among boys and Ramirez certainly did. Tampa had every intention of putting a defensive line together in this draft and took no chances.

Grade: B+

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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