BY ADAM GREENE
First off, we need to define what a bold prediction is, because so many of writers get it wrong. Writing something like, “The Kansas City Chiefs repeat as Super Bowl Champions” isn’t bold in the slightest, nor is a prediction that the Baltimore Ravens, Green Bay Packers, San Francisco 49ers or any of the other odds-on favorites will achieve the thing they’re actually favored to do.
No, a bold prediction is just that – something that should not happen. An event that is unlikely or unexpected. The odds have to be against it. So, while writing that the New England Patriots will win the AFC East isn’t bold, suggesting that the New York Jets will definitely is bold. And, no, I’m not going there.
So let’s get to it.
1. The San Francisco 49ers won’t make the playoffs
There you go. There’s a big one. The 49ers, as of right now, are tied at No. 2 as favorites to win the NFC. How can I think a 13-3 team that made it to the Super Bowl will miss the postseason the very next season? Because it happened last year to a team in the Niners own division, the Los Angeles Rams.
Working in the 49ers’ favor is an expanded playoff field (if there is a full season) and those same Rams would have sneaked in under the new rules. Will San Francisco be that lucky? They won’t be playing that last place schedule again. The NFC West, already the best division in football, will be improved top-to-bottom. The Arizona Cardinals played them close in both games last season. With Kyler Murray in his second year and the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, they’ll be an entirely different animal.
The Niners also benefited by the aforementioned Rams Super Bowl hangover, one they will now have to battle themselves. The NFL did them no favor with their schedule either, putting all their cupcakes on early. Once mid October hits, it’s a murderer’s row that doesn’t calm down until they play Washington on Dec. 13. And by that time Ron Rivera will have that team playing its best football.
2. Nick Foles makes the Pro Bowl with the Bears
There’s a reason Matt Nagy made the trade for Nick Foles, in spite of the conventional wisdom surrounding the former Super Bowl MVP. He knows how to use Foles, because Andy Reid and Doug Pederson know how to use Foles. Nagy is in that same coaching tree having been on Reid’s staff in some position since 2008.
Since 2013, with Reid or Pederson calling the plays, Foles is 15-4 as a starter in the regular season and 4-2 in the playoffs, including a Super Bowl title.
Chicago has put some real weapons around Foles, with a solid running game, good playcalling and a defense that can keep them in the game even when they’re struggling.
How does he make the Pro Bowl? Because people don’t show up. An elite QB that’s going to make it, somebody like Russell Wilson or Drew Brees, is probably going to be playing in the Super Bowl. Other guys may just not want to show up. It’s how Kirk Cousins got in last year.
To be continued in Part 2
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