5 POTENTIAL NFL DRAFT BUSTS

BY ADAM GREENE

To see the bust potential in the 2022 draft class, you need look no further than the 2018 crew. As usual, there wasn’t a lot of drama in that particular draft, with every man selected slated to go about where he went, with maybe a handful of “second rounders” sneaking into the bottom of the first.

But that happens. After the Top 15 or so players, the guys ranked 16-45 are all probably pretty close. So, when it comes to a draft like 2018’s, especially the whiffs at quarterback, who do you blame?

Because that thing was bust heavy at the most important position in the sport. Of the five quarterbacks taken in the 2018 draft, four of them in the Top 10, only two will start for the teams that drafted them in 2022. Josh Rosen is barely hanging on in the NFL. Sam Darnold is probably playing his final season where he even gets a chance to compete for a starting job.

Baker Mayfield? Well, we all know how that’s coming to an inglorious end.

Other guys that didn’t work out? The Cincinnati Bengals took center Billy Price at No. 21. They traded him to the New York Giants before last season after he started all of one game the year before. The Tennessee Titans took Rashaan Evans at No. 22 and let him walk without picking up his fifth year option. The same thing happened to Hayden Hurst with the Baltimore Ravens at No. 25. Taven Bryan, taken at No. 29, started 17 games in four seasons with the Jacksonville Jaguars and none last year. He’s a Cleveland Brown now. And while Sony Michel is a good player and picked up a Super Bowl ring with the Los Angeles Rams this season, he was originally drafted by the New England Patriots at No. 31. All they got in return was a 2022 sixth rounder and a 2023 fourth rounder.

Before we get to my list of potential busts, understand that I don’t have a dog in the fight. I don’t want any of these guys to suck. The NFL is better with good players and I’d love nothing more than for every man picked in the first round to play up to his potential.

The problem is, they will. And that potential will have been misjudged. It is, of course, not the players’ fault. It’s the fault of scouts, general managers and draft “experts” who put far too much value on workouts than actual game tape. They use their imaginations to concoct an entirely made up “ceiling” on these guys and then call them bums when they don’t match their fabricated fantasies.

So, realizing that, here are my five picks for your potential 2022 NFL draft busts, based only on how highly they are regarded by the “experts.”

5. KENNY PICKETT, QB, PITTSBURGH

2021: 67.2 completion percentage, 4,319 yards, 42 touchdowns, seven interceptions

Here’s the problem with Pickett and it’s not his fault. None of these quarterbacks look great to me, but my guess is we’re only getting two taken in the first round of this month’s draft and Pickett will be one of them.

His stats are fine and, in years past, you could look at an ACC schedule and think he played against NFL opponents week to week. I’m not too sure about this past season.

Pickett is definitely draftable. If he were to be selected late in the second and anywhere between there and the fourth round, that would be perfect. In the first? No. He looks like another Sam Darnold to me.

4. TREVOR PENNING, OT, NORTHERN IOWA

NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah has Penning ranked as his No. 22 overall prospect. My guess is Penning, regardless of his prototypical NFL tackle size of 6-7, 321 pounds, has never once blocked an NFL caliber pass rusher in his entire collegiate career at Northern Iowa.

If you’re drafting a tackle in the first round, you’re expecting a Day One starter when Penning has to be a project. Again, you grab him in the third round, you win the day. Guys that can step in, as a rookie, and play offensive tackle at an NFL level are rare. And they’re not coming out of Northern Iowa.

But you take a guy like Penning in the third, train him up, maybe he’s ready to go by his third or fourth season.

3. GEORGE KARLAFTIS, EDGE, PURDUE

2021: 39 tackles, 10 for a loss, 4.5 sacks, four passes defended, two forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries, one defensive touchdown

Karlaftis started 12 games for Purdue last season and faced a solid schedule with the Boilermakers. They faced four ranked teams in the Big 10. Against that competition, facing plenty of offensive linemen that will be joining him in the NFL from Notre Dame, Iowa, Michigan State and Ohio State to just name a few, Karlaftis, an edge rusher, recorded just 4.5 sacks.

That’s it. 12 games, 4.5 sacks. He had 10 tackles for a loss and none of this comes close to his freshman year stats, which is probably why he’s ranked as a first rounder on board. Jeremiah has him at No. 18. A guy that, on film, obviously couldn’t get it done against NFL level competition is not a first round pick. He should be a fourth rounder at best.

2. AHMAD “SAUCE” GARDNER, CB, CINCINNATI

2021: 40 tackles, five for a loss, three sacks, three interceptions, four passes defended

Sauce Gardner thinks he’s the best player in the 2022 Draft. CBS Sports has him ranked No. 3 overall, as does Jeremiah.

My question is, where did he show it? Against Miami of Ohio? How about Murray State? Is that where he put an elite NFL corner film down? Cincinnati played only one ranked team in the regular season, a win over Notre Dame, but the Irish had QB issues and played three guys, including an injured Jack Coan who was benched in the second half.

The Bearcats defense was fantastic in the Cotton Bowl and Gardner played well there too. But the Bama receivers were probably the best he’d faced in his career and they did OK. Gardner looks like a low first round, high second round pick to me. I would not use a Top 10 (or Top 5) pick on a guy that played one single game against NFL caliber receivers in 2021.

1. MALIK WILLIS, QB, LIBERTY

2021: 61.1 completion percentage, 2,857 yards, 27 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 878 rushing yards, 13 rushing touchdowns

There’s always a guy like this. In 2020, it was Jordan Love that somehow worked his way into the first round in spite of every bit of game film he put down. Last year, it was Zack Wilson, who was taken No. 2 overall, who did it.

It’s always because of a comparison to an elite guy already in the league. For Love, it was Patrick Mahomes. For Wilson, it was Josh Allen. With Willis, it’s Lamar Jackson.

His college stats are fine, but not elite. He played well against nobodies, teams ESPN 2 and FS1 show on Friday nights. More than that, when Willis was asked to show up against any legitimate opponent with possible NFL players on its defense, like Ole Miss or over Louisiana, he disappeared.

Now, because he can exercise well at his Pro Day, he’s a first round pick?

Willis might turn out to be a legitimate NFL quarterback and if he was taken in the fourth or fifth round, everything would be fine. But some team is about toss this poor kid into the woodchipper based on their GM’s imagination and potentially ruin any chance he has at real NFL success.

Willis has plenty of tools and, again, I always hope I’m wrong. I write it all the time and it’s true every time I do — there are 32 NFL Franchises in the league. There are not 32 NFL Franchise Quarterbacks on the planet. It would be great if Willis turned into one of those guys.

But what are the chances?

Because here’s a list of quarterbacks the scouts and general managers thought were first round picks and franchise guys in the last decade — Jordan Love (Packers, No. 26, 2020), Paxton Lynch (Broncos, No. 26, 2016), Johnny Manziel (Browns, No. 22, 2014), Josh Rosen (Cardinals, No. 10, 2018), Dwayne Haskins (Commanders, No. 15, 2019), EJ Manuel (Bills, No. 16, 2013), Brandon Weedon (Browns, No. 22, 2012), Robert Griffin III (Commanders, No. 2, 2012), Blake Bortles (Jaguars, No. 3, 2014), Sam Darnold (Jets, No. 3, 2018) and Baker Mayfield (Browns, No. 1, 2018).

And that’s not even counting guys like Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston who have bounced around some, but should still start in 2022. Four of those guys in the bust list, all former first round picks, are no longer even in the NFL as back ups.

Which list do you think Willis (and Pickett too) is more likely to end up on?

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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