5 TEAMS THAT COULD MISS THE 2022 NFL PLAYOFFS AFTER MAKING IT LAST SEASON

BY ADAM GREENE

In years past, the NFL has experienced a regular playoff turnover of anywhere from three to five teams across both conferences. Last year, it was seven. That’s right, we had seven teams make the postseason in the 2021-22 season that watched it all unfold on their TV screens the year before.

One of those squads, the Cincinnati Bengals, made it all the way to the Super Bowl.

It should almost go without saying that franchises that enjoyed a playoff appearance a year ago will be filling out their Barcaloungers come next January. Here are my picks for the five teams most likely to miss the playoffs after making it last season.

5. TENNESSEE TITANS

Last season: 12-5, AFC South Champion

Odds to win AFC South: +145

Tennessee has made the playoffs for three consecutive seasons and four of the last five, so why do they make the list? It’s because there’s a vastly improved AFC as a whole and, for the first time in the last two seasons, they’ll have a legitimate opponent in the AFC South.

Are the Titans better than the Indianapolis Colts? Not on paper and while it might take Indy a month or so to get it together on the field, by season’s end they should be rolling with Matt Ryan. There’s a reason the Colts are the odds-on favorites to win the South at +110.

It’s going to become a familiar refrain as I go down this list, but in the AFC, the Wild Card race will be absolutely brutal. All four AFC West teams could conceivably claim a playoff spot. If not them, you’ve got to get past the defending AFC North Champion Cincinnati Bengals or the Baltimore Ravens, who will be battling it out for that division and a Wild Card spot as well.

If you were picking the games straight up today — Titans vs. Bengals, Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders or Los Angeles Chargers, would they win? I can’t see it, so losing the South to the Colts could be all it takes to send Tennessee to their man caves for the postseason.

4. ARIZONA CARDINALS

Last season: 11-6, NFC Wild Card

Odds to win the NFC West: +275

Over the last three seasons the Cardinals have gone 3-5 (2021), 3-5 (2020) and 2-6 (2019) over their final eight games of the season. Under Kliff Kingsbury and with Kyler Murray at quarterback, Arizona takes a swoon in December like one of Jane Austin’s Musgrove sisters.

Two years ago, with a playoff spot on the line, the Cardinals lost their final two games, including the season ender to the Rams with John Wolford making his first NFL start. Last year, going into the final game, Arizona could have claimed the NFC West title and a home playoff game, but were beaten 38-30 by the Seattle Seahawks in Russell Wilson’s final game with that franchise. Just one more win in the 2019 or 2020 seasons over the second half of the season would have drastically changed Arizona’s fortunes. And they couldn’t get it done.

While the NFC Wild Card race will be nowhere near the grindhouse that the AFC will enjoy, it’s not without its problems. The Dallas Cowboys (tied for the easiest schedule in the NFL) and Philadelphia Eagles (third easiest) have all been handed playoff spots by their schedules. One of those teams is winning the NFC East. The other is probably claiming a Wild Card spot.

That leaves two more Wild Card openings and if you hand the NFC West to the Rams (and you should), the NFC South to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (and you should) and the NFC North to the Green Bay Packers (and you should), then the Cardinals will be in a pitched battle with the San Francisco 49ers (who made it to the NFC Championship a year ago), the New Orleans Saints (who nearly made the playoffs last year with a bunch of Fudrucker’s Grillmasters at QB) and what should be a much better Minnesota Vikings team (that also nearly sneaked in a year ago).

There’s more and we’ll get into that in the entry below.

3. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Last season: 10-7, NFC Wild Card

Odds to win the NFC West: +215

Over the last four seasons, the math for the 49ers has been simple. If Jimmy Garoppolo plays most of the season, they make the playoffs. If he’s not playing, they don’t.

They are actively moving away from him at quarterback for second year man Trey Lance. Now, Lance might turn out to be better than Garoppolo in the long run. What I find impossible to believe is that he’ll be anywhere near as good as Jimmy G. in his first full season as a starter. I certainly didn’t see even a hint of it anytime he was on the field last season.

Aaron Rodgers, the reigning NFL back to back MVP went 6-10 his first year starting in Green Bay. Lance will have to get it done not only against the NFC West, which will remain a strong division, but will also have to hold off every team in the AFC West. San Francisco still has a loaded team on both sides of the ball, but no one knows what to expect from Lance. And whatever he does, he’ll have to do it against the fifth hardest schedule in the NFL.

As I wrote in the preamble, seven new teams showed up in the playoffs a season ago. Four of them were in the NFC including all three Wild Cards. There’s a reason for that. Teams that posted bad records the previous season get easier schedules in the next.

San Francisco knows they’ll be facing off against the Saints, Cardinals and Vikings for two Wild Card spots, as I mentioned earlier, plus a team or two no one is picking to do anything right now. A team like the New York Giants, for instance, who have significantly upgraded their team and coaching staff this offseason and will enjoy the fourth easiest schedule in the league. Don’t sleep on the Detroit Lions either, who are looking at the fifth easiest schedule.

Last year, with Garoppolo, the 49ers were swept by both he Cardinals and the Seahawks. They did sweep the Rams, but that mojo crashed and burned in the NFC Championship. Is Lance, in his second year, making just his third start when this season opens, the guy to navigate that schedule and win at least 10 games? I’m not betting on it.

2. PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Last season: 9-7-1, AFC Wild Card

Odds to win the AFC North: +750

You could make the argument that the Steelers shouldn’t have made the playoffs last year. The Chargers were certainly a better team with the same number of victories and they got to watch the postseason at home. It took an overtime win over the Ravens in the season finale to secure the spot Pittsburgh and that Ravens team was without Lamar Jackson for the last month. If Jackson plays, do the Steelers win that one?

Ben Roethlisberger wasn’t elite last year by any means, but he was still a leader and could  muster a little magic when required. Mitchell Trubisky won’t be a talent drop off, but the Big Ben gravitas is most certainly gone.

So you have a team that, if everyone in their own division was healthy, wouldn’t have made it last year competing in not only a significantly stronger AFC North (with the addition of Deshaun Watson to the Cleveland Browns), but a stronger AFC South and an absolutely brutal AFC West. The Steelers will remain dangerous and Mike Tomlin will keep them together, but this isn’t a team finishing 2022 with a winning record. The math in the AFC simply isn’t there.

1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Last season: 10-7, AFC Wild Card

Odds to win AFC East: +550

A lot of good things happened for the Patriots last year in Mac Jones’ rookie season, but down the final stretch reality set in. New England lost four of its last five games including their Wild Card playoff game against the Buffalo Bills. That Bills loss, 47-17, was one of the worst in Bill Belichick’s New England tenure.

So it’s safe to say that winning the AFC East is out of the question for the Pats. They will be vying for one of those three coveted Wild Card spots that whichever team doesn’t win the AFC West (and any of them could) will be going after, along with the Titans or Colts and Bengals or Ravens along with the Miami Dolphins (who are favored by the odds to finish ahead of the Patriots in the AFC East) and the Cleveland Browns, depending on how much Watson they get on the field.

There’s a real chance New England will start the season 0-4 with games at the Dolphins, at the Steelers, hosting the Ravens and then at the Packers. Their final seven games down the stretch are the Vikings, the Bills twice, the Cardinals, the Raiders, the Bengals and the Dolphins again. Not only would it not shock me for New England to miss the playoffs, it wouldn’t shock me to see them finish 6-11.

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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