BAD BEATS: NFL WEEK 13

BY ADAM GREENE

We nearly made it through Week 13 without a Bad Beat at all, which would have been the second time this season it happened. Before that, I can’t remember it happening at all.

A Bad Beat of some kind is almost a guarantee in the NFL. It’s part of the league’s “Any Given Sunday” mantra, where upsets can be secured or denied in the game’s final minutes.

But between Thursday’s Dallas Cowboys walk and a Sunday full of, for the most part, solid ass kickings, we were nearly out of chances. We had nine out of 14 games decided by double digits. We had another won by a touchdown that had a scoreless fourth quarter.

Our three close games were all relatively tight spreads, with the exception of the Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions. The Lions were a seven point dog, but you knew when they reeled off 20 points in the second quarter to take a 20-6 lead into halftime, that wasn’t going to hit.

And if you took the Las Vegas Raiders at -1 over the Washington Football Team or the Baltimore Ravens at -4.5 over the Pittsburgh Steelers, you have no one to blame but yourself. I picked both those games for you. The Ravens just don’t regularly cover, period. Especially two weeks in a row. I nearly hit the WFT at Raiders score exactly in my prediction (I had 19-16, it finished 17-15).

To be honest, most weeks our Bad Beat wouldn’t even have counted, but this one was especially egregious and I’ll get to why as we discuss Monday night’s New England Patriots 14, Buffalo Bills 10.

For the second week in a row, I’ll forgo my usual storytelling at some imaginary schlub’s betting expense. Instead, we’re going to have to deal with the fallout from this game together, as a nation, a culture and a species.

Because the New England Patriots are not only in sole possession of first place in the AFC East, they currently hold the top seed in the AFC playoffs. And they’re doing it with a rookie quarterback who threw a total of three passes Monday night.

And here’s the thing if you’re Buffalo and you see that stat. You should be ashamed. And I’m not talking about a dog that’s been caught in the cat box ashamed. I’m talking about questioning yourselves as men, as a team and, frankly, as an organization. Because in 2021 it should not be possible to win an NFL game throwing just three passes and completing just two.

But it happened. And we all watched it happen. It was like watching a Saw movie and being in it at the same time.

And this didn’t come about thanks to a dominating rushing performance. This isn’t some Derrick Henry or Jonathan Taylor 200 yard, five touchdown type game. Damien Harris rushed 10 times for 111 yards and a single touchdown. The rest of the Pats runners had 111 yards too. This was a game where a team posted 241 yards of total offense and won.

The Patriots were never in danger of passing the ball. Buffalo knew what was coming every time on defense and, yet, they still averaged 4.9 yards per play and 4.8 yards per rush.

As for the Bills, a lot was made of the weather last night in Buffalo. The wind whipping around and changing the trajectory of throws and kicks, but this game was in Buffalo. You live there. You play there. This should not affect anything that the Bills do. How did Buffalo play at home in their own home weather in front of their own home fans and somehow have a disadvantage because of said home weather? It makes no sense.

It’s like the Green Bay Packers losing because they played at Lambau Field in December and it got a little too chilly for them. This was an outrageous loss.

But what makes it a Bad Beat is that the Bills had two chances to win it outright. Not only win, but also hit the -3 and make the game a push for those of us poor slobs (of which I am one) who placed cash on them in the belief that they would not let a team led by a rookie quarterback come into their stadium in December and leave with a victory. A great team, a Super Bowl team, would not do that.

Getting the ball near the beginning of the fourth quarter, down 14-10 after a New England field goal, the Bills put together an 11 play drive, getting the ball all the way to the Pats six yard line before Allen surrendered a sack on second and goal. On third and goal, he missed a pass for Dawson Knox and the team trotted out kicker Tyler Bass for a 33 yard chip shot.

And, again, the wind was bad. But Bass lives there. He has a house there, or at least a condo or apartment. He kicks in this stadium all the time. If New England’s kicker Nick Folk can bury these, Bass definitely should.

But, of course, he didn’t.

Which, if you bet on Buffalo was OK since you needed them to at least win by three to get your money back.

With the ball back after a predictable Patriots three and out, the Bills again drove the length of the field, making it to the Patriots 13 before a stupid false start penalty set them up at 3^rd and 14. It was before the two minute warning and this was definitely four down territory, so Buffalo had its whole playbook open and could have easily picked up some yardage to get closer for a final shot.

But the Bills offensive line immediately opened the floodgates and Allen tossed up a prayer to Knox in the end zone that fell incomplete.

The fourth down play after should haunt Allen for the rest of the season. New England blitzed and this time his protection picked it up. He had three men running routes and, right as a Pats defender squirted through, Allen fired the ball to Gabriel Davis only to have New England safety Myles Bryant knock it down.

The MNF guys praised Bryant for the game ending play, but here’s the thing — watch the replay. The only reason Bryant was in position to get a hand on the ball intended for Davis is because Cole Covid Beasley had beaten his doors off. If Allen had passed the ball to Beasley’s disease covered hands (and remember, there were just three receiving options all facing a man defense), then Beasely would have trotted into the end zone and celebrated with the Bills fans over the back wall, giving them all the latest Omicron variant currently growing in his beard.

This is a Bad Beat, sure. But it was a team defining beat for the Bills. This is who they are. And if you put a bet on Buffalo to make it to or win the Super Bowl this year in the preseason, you threw that money right into the woodchipper. 

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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