BARRY WILNER’S 2022 NFL WIN TOTAL PROJECTIONS

By Barry Wilner

(EDITOR’S NOTE: Barry Wilner was a sports writer for the Associated Press for 55 years, covering the NFL since 1985 and serving as the news organization’s Senior NFL Writer since 2001. Wilner now joins the BetOnline editorial staff to deliver expert analyses and picks every week of the NFL season. Last year, Wilner’s Pro Picks weekly column yielded records of 185-100-1 SU (64.9%) and 159-123-2 ATS (56.4%), including his “Best Bets” going 13-7 SU/ATS and “Upset Specials” a sparkling 15-3 SU/ATS.)

Throughout the NFL, coaches and players – echoing those coaches, naturally — will tell you that winning divisional games are of utmost importance in the chase to the playoffs.

We’re not necessarily buying it.

Consider that a team can lose all six of its games within its division but win its other 11 contests, and almost certainly make the playoffs. Maybe even win that division, particularly if it is the AFC South or NFC East in 2022.

Sure, there are meaningful intra-division games upcoming. Each of the matchups within the AFC West could be critical because the perennial champion Chiefs, the Chargers, Raiders and Broncos appear so evenly matched. It’s not beyond the realm of reality that all four clubs will finish with winning records, possibly all qualifying for the postseason.

But where they finish in that sector could be determined even more by how they handle their appointments outside of the AFC West. Their meetings with the defending Super Bowl champion Rams and strong 49ers, for example, could be just as decisive.

So when you hear how divisional games are worth double, well, don’t necessarily take it as gospel.

As for how each of the 32 clubs will fare on the under/over wins scale, read on.

ARIZONA CARDINALS

The offense disappeared without star receiver DeAndre Hopkins last season, and he’s suspended for the first six games. Quarterback Kyler Murray got his money; proving he is worth the big contract will be challenging. The defense lost its best pass rusher, Chandler Jones.   

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Under 8.5

ATLANTA FALCONS

Clearly a team in transition – does any GM or coach dare use the word rebuild? – the Falcons could be a contender for the top overall draft selection next April. Their best players, tight end Kyle Pitts, placekicker Younghoe Koo and DL Grady Jarrett, won’t lift them out of the NFC South basement.

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Under 4.5

BALTIMORE RAVENS

No team was more ravaged by injuries last season than the Ravens. They were almost unrecognizable by the 17^th game as they faded from contention. While their defense should rebound, there are too many questions on offense, and QB Lamar Jackson’s contract status could be a distraction. It’s difficult seeing them win more than 10 games … or fewer than 10.

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: 10

BUFFALO BILLS

History has shown that teams falling just short of the NFL title tend to use disappointment and adversity as a catalyst. So the Bills, who haven’t been to a Super Bowl since losing four straight in the 1990s, just might deserve the favorite’s role. Still, the AFC is deep and talented, and the schedule is challenging.

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Under 11.5

CAROLINA PANTHERS

Coach Matt Rhule better hope his group is ready to ascend after a pair of five-win seasons. Otherwise, he’s likely to be working in college in 2023. There are weapons on offense, with RB Christian McCaffrey remaining healthy critical to Carolina’s chances.

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Over 6.5

CHICAGO BEARS

This might be the worst roster in the NFL. Chicago needs to discover how good Justin Fields might be, but it hasn’t given the second-year quarterback much to work with. And the defense has too many holes.

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Under 6

CINCINNATI BENGALS

We’re still trying to figure out why this number is so low. Hey, remember, the Bengals nearly won the Super Bowl in February. They’ve upgraded their biggest weakness, the offensive line, and though the defense doesn’t get much recognition, it’s solid. 

Wilner’s Win Total Pick:  Well Over 9.5

CLEVELAND BROWNS

And we can’t quite comprehend how the Browns, as dysfunctional a pro sports organization as you will find, are considered that close to the Bengals in talent. By the time QB Deshaun Watson returns from his 11-game ban, Cleveland should be an also-ran.

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Under 8

DALLAS COWBOYS

Like Rhule, Mike McCarthy is another coach in need of a special season. With problems in the trenches, that might not be in reach for Dallas. Yes, the NFC East isn’t exactly a crucible. Still …

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Under 10

DENVER BRONCOS

The AFC West definitely is a crucible (see above). Folks in Denver expect Russell Wilson to be a Mile High Savior, and he has weapons around him (watch RB Javonte Williams). Much depends on the front seven on defense; the secondary is solid.

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Under 10

DETROIT LIONS

Motor City Mania won’t be hitting Detroit, and the record could look similar to recent years. But the Lions should be competitive most weeks, and first-round draftee Aidan Hutchinson could be a force in the pass rush.

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Under 6.5

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Green Bay’s defense often gets ignored because of all the headlines – positive and negative – that reigning two-time MVP Aaron Rodgers provides. The NFC North doesn’t look too tough and there are four meetings with the NFC East. So maybe Davante Adams’ absence won’t lead to a plummet.

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Over 10.5

HOUSTON TEXANS

To say that David Culley didn’t get a fair shake in his one year as Texans coach would be like noting that it gets hot in Houston this time of year. By the time it gets cooler there, the Texans will be thinking about the draft.

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Barely Over 4.5

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Indy went from Peyton Manning to Andrew Luck to, well, nobody of particular note at quarterback. That changes with Matt Ryan joining the Colts, and he should have something left. The defense has plenty left in an easy division.

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Over 9.5

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Just the fact Doug Pederson, who outcoached Bill Belichick to win a Super Bowl, has replaced Urban Meyer as Jags coach should be applauded in Jacksonville. The franchise spent money to get better and, even with a losing record, the Jags will be improved.

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Under 6.5

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Can you hear the Arrowhead fans’ chants changing from WHO-OW WHO-OW  to WOE ARE WE? A lot of people are projecting it. We’re not. Andy Reid is too good a coach, Patrick Mahomes too good a quarterback, Travis Kelce took good a tight end … You get the idea.

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Over 10.5

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Despite awful recent drafts, turmoil on and off the field, and living in the AFC West, the ’22 Raiders have a very nice look. Adding WR Davante Adams to TE Darren Waller and fellow wideout Hunter Renfrow is a big part of the optimism. So is Chandler Jones teaming with Maxx Crosby on the D-line.

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Over 8.5

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

If Brandon Staley doesn’t overcoach the way he did in 2021, and if prized free agent CB J.C. Jackson recovers quickly from ankle surgery, and if Khalil Mack and Derwin James return to peak form … Lots of ifs here.

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Barely Over 10.5

LOS ANGELES RAMS

LA’s other squad, the Super Bowl champs, lost some key contributors to the title run. The Rams still figure to be the class of the NFC West, with an exciting attack built around 2021 Offensive Player of the Year Cooper Kupp, and perennial All-Pro DT Aaron Donald. They won’t be dominant, though.

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Over 10.5

MIAMI DOLPHINS

The excitement meter might fly off the scale with speed demon receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle aboard. If, of course, Tua Tagovailoa can get them the ball. New coach Mike McDaniel won’t hold back anything on offense.

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Over 8.5

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

All that noise coming out of the Twin Cities made us take a deeper look at the Vikings, and how they compare to the Packers in the NFC North. We were impressed with much of the offense, and shrugged about much of the D.

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Under 9.5

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

If the Patriots and Dolphins are in a tight race for a wild-card berth, their meetings in Weeks 1 and 17 will be crucial. These Patriots appear weaker than last season’s surprise playoff qualifier, but good enough for nine victories.

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Over 8.5

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

While the Saints aren’t likely to chase down – or even threaten – the TBs (Tampa Bay and Tom Brady) in the NFC South, they are superior to Atlanta and Carolina. The schedule doesn’t appear daunting, and the defense could be playoff caliber.

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Over 8.5

NEW YORK GIANTS

Fuhgeddabout it. Oops, our Queens accent coming through. The Giants and new coach Brian Daboll have more questions to answer (Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, the linebackers and secondary) than a Big Apple politician.

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Under 7.5

NEW YORK JETS

Year 2 under coach Robert Saleh isn’t likely to look much better in the standings than his first go-round. We doubt the defense will be such a sieve again, and there are promising pieces at the offensive skill positions. The schedule is a killer, though.

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Under 5.5

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Think back to how the Eagles closed last season to make the playoffs with a roster less talented than this one. Their gumption and resourcefulness impressed, and now they’ve added more playmakers, especially WR A.J. Brown.

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Over 9.5

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

This is a tough one because we believe Mike Tomlin can turn pretty much any bunch into a contender. If the defense can stop the run and the quarterbacking is more than marginal, the Steelers could be a surprise.

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Over 7.5

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Now that Jimmy G is staying put, a very wise move by the quarterback and Niners management, pursuing another Super Bowl berth is possible. The defense, led by a terrific front line, needs to be formidable, particularly if Trey Lance is not ready.

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Over 9.5

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

These Seahawks are reminiscent of the group Pete Carroll took charge of way back in 2010. The league’s oldest coach is one of the best, but he simply doesn’t have the studs right now.

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Under 5.5

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

When a team is battling with key injuries before the opening kickoff (see Ravens), it’s not a positive harbinger. Then again, that young man behind center makes up for a lot of worries. Just not enough for this many wins.

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Under 11.5

TENNESSEE TITANS

Sorry to cop out here, but the Titans look like a 9-8 team. Sure, if Derrick Henry is fully recovered and the O-line jells and the pass rush is dynamic and someone steps up at wideout …

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: 9

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

We’d like to think Carson Wentz will find the mojo from his early seasons in Philly. We’d like to think all the off-field drama won’t be a distraction. We’d like to think a fine coach like Ron Rivera can produce a good record. We don’t think so.

Wilner’s Win Total Pick: Under 8