BETONLINE PRO PICKS BY BARRY WILNER: NFL WEEK 4

By Barry Wilner

(EDITOR’S NOTE: Barry Wilner was a sports writer for the Associated Press for 46 years, covering the NFL since 1985 and serving as the news organization’s Senior NFL Writer since 2001. Wilner now joins the BetOnline editorial staff to deliver expert analyses and picks every week of the NFL season. Last year, Wilner’s Pro Picks weekly column yielded records of 185-100-1 SU (64.9%) and 159-123-2 ATS (56.4%), including his “Best Bets” going 13-7 SU/ATS and “Upset Specials” a sparkling 15-3 SU/ATS.)

Let’s talk disappointments. And yes, that includes our picks, particularly our Best Bets and Upset Specials, which haven’t been Best nor Special.

We’ll keep trying. Meanwhile, here are eight teams that have played as if they aren’t interested in the postseason – and five of them made the playoffs in 2021. Sure, it’s only three games, but some trends we are seeing are ominous.

Steelers: The offense is abysmal, there’s little imagination with the ball, and already there are calls to bench quarterback Mitch Trubisky for first-round selection Kenny Pickett. At least the defense makes some big plays.

Patriots: The Belichick Bunch was expected to make a major step forward after last year’s recovery. Instead, the Patriots looked overmatched by Miami and, at times, by Baltimore. And now Brian Hoyer might have to be behind center?

Saints: This has gotten really ugly. Most everyone figured New Orleans would miss the retired coach, Sean Payton. Injuries have played a role in the Big Easy, but the defense is on the field far too long and Jameis Winston looks uncertain as a passer.

Commanders: Some folks picked Washington as a dark horse contender. For now, the Commanders can’t block anyone and look like a high-draft pick favorite.

Chargers: OK, this one is more about who is hurt than who is slumping. Still, this LA outfit might have as much talent as the one it shares SoFi Stadium with, but it’s not showing.

49ers: No one should be surprised that keeping Jimmy Garoppolo as a QB insurance policy would pay off. Except he has looked mediocre or worse – no true preseason practice has been damaging – and the Niners have been sloppy.

Cardinals: Arizona, which usually starts fast and then fades, probably should be 0-3. It dearly misses standout receiver DeAndre Hopkins and has no balance on either side of the ball.

Raiders: They ARE 0-3, and it’s hard to fathom how poorly they have performed over long stretches. The coaching hasn’t been inspiring either. This is a team on the edge.

Commanders at Cowboys (-3)

It’s all about the pass rush here: What Dallas can do with it and how Washington can’t stop it.

BEST BET: COWBOYS, 23-10

Rams at 49ers (-1)

San Francisco has dominated the regular-season series lately. That ends Monday night.

UPSET SPECIAL: RAMS, 20-16

Vikings vs. Saints (+2 1/2) at London

See above about the Saints.

VIKINGS, 24-13

Jaguars at Eagles (-6 ½)

Last month, my son picked the Jags to win the AFC South. He might be on to something, but they just need to cover here.

EAGLES, 30-26

Chiefs at Buccaneers (+1)

Hurricane Ian took away some of the spotlight from Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady. So do all the Bucs’ injuries.

CHIEFS, 20-17

Bills at Ravens (+3)

A bounce-back win for the Bills? Or a major statement by the Ravens after the one Miami made in Week 3?

BILLS, 30-26

Titans at Colts (-3 ½)

Indy made a statement last week, but the Chiefs really handed that game to the Colts.

TITANS, 21-20

Seahawks at Lions (-4 ½)

Detroit’s another team that threw away a victory last week. Not this time.

LIONS, 31-17

Broncos at Raiders (-2 1/2)

The Raiders are too talented not to get some wins. Aren’t they?

RAIDERS, 24-20

Chargers at Texans (+5)

Injuries already are destroying the Chargers. Don’t be surprised if Houston springs an upset. But ..

CHARGERS, 22-19

Bears at Giants (-3 ½)

Does anyone believe these 2-1 teams are headed for the postseason? And one of them will be 3-1.

GIANTS, 20-10

Patriots at Packers (-9 ½)

There shouldn’t be a line on this one, given New England’s quarterback situation. Can the run game keep it close for the Patriots?

PACKERS, 24-13

Browns at Falcons (+1)

Atlanta has hung tough and made things interesting. Cleveland is schizophrenic.

FALCONS, 19-17

Jets at Steelers (-3)

If Pittsburgh flops here, look for Kenny Pickett at QB. The Jets get back Zach Wilson – whatever that means.

STEELERS, 16-10

Cardinals at Panthers (-1)

Boomer Sooner for Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield.

PANTHERS, 23-19

­­­________________

Wilner’s 2022 RECORD

Last Week – Straight up: 8-7. Against the spread: 9-6.

Season – Straight up: 24-20-1. Against the spread: 21-23-1.

Best Bet – Straight up: 1-2. Against the spread: 0-3.

Upset Special – Straight up: 0-3. Against the spread: 0-3.

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