BETONLINE PRO PICKS BY BARRY WILNER: NFL WEEK 1

By Barry Wilner

(EDITOR’S NOTE: Barry Wilner was a sports writer for the Associated Press for 46 years, covering the NFL since 1985 and serving as the news organization’s Senior NFL Writer since 2001. Wilner now joins the BetOnline editorial staff to deliver expert analyses and picks every week of the NFL season. Last year, Wilner’s Pro Picks weekly column yielded records of 185-100-1 SU (64.9%) and 159-123-2 ATS (56.4%), including his “Best Bets” going 13-7 SU/ATS and “Upset Specials” a sparkling 15-3 SU/ATS.)

Kickoff weekend in the NFL is about as unpredictable as figuring out when Tom Brady will truly hang it up. This week’s opening games are a prime example – including that 45-year-old quarterback’s Buccaneers journeying to Dallas for the Sunday night showcase.

Those Bucs are favored on the road, as are the Ravens, Saints, 49ers, Eagles, Colts, Chiefs, Packers and Broncos as things get started for real (at last!). That’s A LOT of home underdogs.

Which usually makes for plenty of temptation to pick the hosts. Or not, because in many cases the visitors simply are far superior teams.

Then again, anything can happen in Week 1.

Browns at Panthers (+1)

Christian McCaffrey is healthy, Baker Mayfield is ticked off, and the Browns are a team in turmoil.

(BEST BET) PANTHERS 22-13

Raiders at Chargers (-3)

Maybe we’re being foolish relying a bit too much on what we saw in the preseason. But Josh McDaniel could make a huge difference in Sin City.

(UPSET SPECIAL) RAIDERS 30-26

Broncos at Seahawks (+6.5)

If you think Mayfield is eager for vengeance, how about Russell Wilson?

BRONCOS, 31-10

Steelers at Bengals (-6.5)

Seems like a bunch of folks are downplaying the Bengals and writing off the Steelers. Beware on both ends.

BENGALS, 23-15

Buccaneers at Cowboys (+2.5)

Even with so many stars on the field in Big D, the O-lines could determine how this turns out. But we’ll stick with the Old Man QB for now.

BUCCANEERS 28, COWBOYS 24

Packers at Vikings (+1)

Another aging quarterback we’ll put our faith in is Aaron Rodgers. And we’re not sold on Minnesota as a contender, though a convincing win here would change our mind a bit.

PACKERS, 22-16

Chiefs at Cardinals (+6)

Both clubs appear less dangerous than a year ago, missing key pieces on offense and defense. The Chiefs are starting from a higher plane, though.

CHIEFS, 30-20

Patriots at Dolphins (-3.5)

The Dolphins have had the Patriots’ number recently, which says a whole lot more about Brady not being in New England any longer.

DOLPHINS, 17-16

49ers at Bears (+6.5)

Untested Trey Lance against virtually untested Justin Fields. No matter, this one will be decided in the trenches, which means …

49ERS, 22-6

Ravens at Jets (+7)

Scheduling oddity 2022: The Ravens play each of the AFC East teams in the opening four weeks, and the Jets take on each AFC North squad.

RAVENS, 24-10

Saints at Falcons (+5.5)

Dennis Allen’s debut as head coach for the Saints, who have a championship-quality defense. Nothing about the Falcons speaks title.

SAINTS, 23-9

Eagles at Lions (+4)

The positive vibes about the Eagles, far more talented than in 2021 when they squeezed into the playoffs, would fade with a flop here.

EAGLES, 28-25

Colts at Texans (+7)

If Chicago doesn’t have the weakest roster in the league, then Houston does. Indy should be a solid AFC South pick.

COLTS, 29-13

Jaguars at Commanders (-2.5)

Jacksonville spent big bucks to upgrade the roster, but it’s bringing in Doug Pederson for Urban Meyer on the sideline that made for the biggest improvement.

JAGUARS, 19-17

Giants at Titans (-5 ½)

This line seems low and probably reflects the belief the Titans have regressed significantly. We’ll go with it.

TITANS, 20-16

Wilner’s 2021 RECORD

Season – Straight up: 185-100-1. Against the spread: 159-123-2.

Best Bet – Straight up: 12-7-1. Against the spread: 13-7.

Upset Special – Straight up: 15-3. Against the spread: 15-3.