Browns Are A Two-Touchdown Underdog at New England This Week

By BetOnline October 24, 2019

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The Cleveland Browns are coming off their bye week as they spent that time trying to figure out answers to their offense, which has not made the grade in a season which has been massively disappointing. Now they’ll go on the road to face the league’s best defense when they visit the New England Patriots this weekend. Can the Browns surprise here or at least make this remotely competitive?

CLEVELAND BROWNS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
NFL ODDS: PATRIOTS -13
NFL TOTAL: 46

WHY THE BROWNS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The reality that the New England Patriots’ offense isn’t as good as it once was is the reason Cleveland can keep this game close and cover the number. The Patriots’ defense is awesome, very legitimately the best in the league but the offense has not performed well this season. When you subtract the defensive touchdowns, special teams touchdowns, and very short fields which have led to points for the Patriots, it becomes clear that the New England offense hasn’t had to do very much work this season. Even in games when the Patriots have scored more than 30 points, such as their wins against the Washington Redskins, New York Giants, and this past Monday against the New York Jets, the defense did much of the work to put the offense in position to succeed.

However, if the Patriots’ opponents can get a good start and not play from behind, anchored by their defense, New England can be tested. We actually saw the New York Giants make them sweat a little bit two weeks ago, so if Baker Mayfield can avoid the interceptions and if the Browns can run the ball a little bit, they could make this interesting.

There’s no taking away from the Patriots 8-0 record but take a look at the quarterbacks they’ve faced: Ben Roethlisberger, Josh Rosen, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Josh Allen, Matt Barkley, Colt McCoy, Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold. The combined record of their opponents is 12-32. Sure, Cleveland is just a two-win team but they should be capable of more. If they don’t shoot themselves in the foot, maybe they surprise here.

WHY THE PATRIOTS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

This isn’t very hard. The Browns’ offense has not come together. They don’t look well-coached, Baker Mayfield has more turnovers than any other quarterback since the start of last season and the offensive line is a mess. The Patriots formula is simple: play smart, let the opponent make mistakes and capitalize. The Browns have been as mistake-prone as it gets.

The New England defense has pitched two shutouts this season and has given up 10 points or fewer in three other games this season. The math here is quite simple: stop Nick Chubb in his tracks, put the game on Mayfield’s arm and wait for him to make mistakes. The Browns picked up 193 rushing yards against the Baltimore Ravens and 157 against the Seattle Seahawks. They’re at 92.3 rushing yards per game outside of that. As far as the Patriots go, they’re second in the NFL in rushing yards per game allowed.

As long as Tom Brady can cut down on the mistakes – he’s bizarrely turned it over in four straight games – then this should be another Patriots win.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE TOTAL

The Browns aren’t going to score much, but they might be able to contain New England. They’re returning off a bye and should get a number of the members of their secondary back. This game should be more of a grind than an offensive showdown, so the under makes more sense than the over.