Chicago Bears Super Bowl Odds

The Chicago Bears achieved so much in 2018. They had languished in mediocrity (or worse) for several seasons, but the trade with the Oakland Raiders for Khalil Mack profoundly upgraded the roster and enabled the defense to fully come together. The Bears smothered most of their opponents and were extremely hard to play at home.

The year ended by winning the NFC North and returning to the playoffs, which should have been a positive, but the Bears missed a very makeable game-winning field goal that should have pushed them to the second round. With kicking seemingly still a problem and experts talking about regression, will this team take a step back in 2019?

Odds to Win Super Bowl LIV
Chicago Bears +1200

Offseason Changes

In: Chuck Pagano (def. coordinator), Ha-Ha Clinton Dix, Nick Williams, David Montgomery, Buster Skrine

Out: Vic Fangio (def. coordinator), Adrian Amos, Jordan Howard, Bryce Callahan, Cody Parkey

The Bears had a number of key losses in the offseason but immediately addressed them.

The Bears swapped out the ever-steady Amos for the big-play, big-bust Clinton-Dix at safety. Jordan Howard went to the Philadelphia Eagles, so the Bears replaced him with a third-round draft pick at running back, David Montgomery of Iowa State, who has been extremely impressive in the preseason. And Chicago lost Bryce Callahan at cornerback and replaced him with Buster Skrine. Those moves feel like they leave the Bears are about even to where they were.

The loss of Cody Parkey, the kicker who missed crucial field goals during the season, especially the one at the end of the wild card loss against the Eagles, could be the biggest loss. Although he was blamed for the missed kick, replays showed it was tipped. The concern is that their long-drawn-out kicking competition is likely to leave them with an inferior kicker.

Vic Fangio, who coached last year’s outstanding defense, went to Denver to become the head coach of the Broncos. Chuck Pagano, who had recently been the head coach of the Indianapolis Colts and who was a former defensive coordinator with the Baltimore Ravens, replaced Fangio as the 2019 defensive coordinator.

Regular Season Win Total: 9 Games

The Bears will go over 9 wins if…

Their passing game down the field can improve. By all accounts, Mitch Trubisky has been inconsistent in training camp and preseason, which suggests he hasn’t taken the next step forward. However, if he has, the Bears could be a very dangerous offense. They have a good running game, but they need to hit long passes as a result of defenses coming up to the line of scrimmage to take away the run. If Trubisky can prove that he can beat defenses consistently and keep them honest, this will be a very complete team.

On defense, nobody is too worried after the losses of Fangio and other changes. With Khalil Mack and a slew of other Pro Bowlers returning, this unit should be strong. The defense carried so much of the workload last year. If they don’t have to do so much to win games for this team, that will be a big bonus.

The Bears will go under 9 wins if…

Their offensive line has an average year and Trubisky doesn’t progress. He’s clearly had some big games before but opposing coaches just don’t really think he can beat them. They’ll load the box and force him into some mistakes.

The other concern here is the schedule. The Bears played what turned out to be a very easy schedule last season but it should be much tougher in 2019. Was this team, in fact, that good last season or did they benefit from some cupcake games?

Lastly, the kicking issue still looks like a problem. If the Bears continue to whiff on key kicks and it takes the wind out of their sails, they’ll stay under the nine-win mark.

Best Chicago Bears Futures Bets

Will The Chicago Bears Make The Playoffs?
Pick: ‘Yes’ at +170

The Bears should make the playoffs. The Minnesota Vikings should have a loaded defense but they are saddled with the burden of having Kirk Cousins at quarterback. The Green Bay Packers have a new coaching situation which makes them very hard to trust. The Bears should have less question marks as they have an elite defense and what could be a very effective offense.

NFC North Final Position In The Standings
Pick: 2nd at +225

It still feels like the Bears will regress a little bit in 2019. I expect this team to make the playoffs but likely via a Wild Card berth. While I like the value at +170 to make the playoffs, I also think the second spot is the best bet for them in this division.

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