Cleveland Browns Host Cincinnati Bengals In ‘All Ohio’ NFL Rivalry Matchup

Motivation is among the most misunderstood concepts in sports handicapping. The ‘square’ views motivation in very simplistic terms and as a binary construct. In their view, it’s either there or it isn’t. Furthermore, the lifetime loser at sports betting considers motivation as a situational occurrence. If ‘State University’ beats ‘State Tech’ one season the ‘square’ will look at the rematch one year later and assume that ‘State Tech’ will have ‘motivation’ simply because they lost last time out. They might, but it’s not guaranteed simply because they play a team they lost to one year ago on a specific Saturday.

Some of the handicappers that oversimplify motivation also consider it as exclusive to college sports. The rationale works something like this—professional athletes are paid handsomely for their services and for that reason ‘come to play’ every game with a certain level of intensity. If they win they get paid, if they lose they get paid. Since the game is a ‘job’ to them there’s no reason to expect a higher or lower level of effort due to the circumstances surrounding an individual matchup. College players, on the other hand, are driven by emotional/subjective concepts like ‘revenge’ and ‘in state bragging rights’. If the aforementioned ‘State Tech’ has lost to ‘State University’ for three years running the rising senior class will be ‘sky high motivated’ to avoid leaving school without having beaten their rival.

The 2018 Cleveland Browns are perfect example of how important the mental/emotional component is at the professional level. The line of demarcation is clear with the performance of the Browns before and after their midseason coaching change in near diametric opposition. In-season coach firings are typically a ‘desperation move’ and particularly in the NFL. It’s often an admission that a team’s fortunes have hit rock bottom and immediate action is necessary so as to not alienate the fanbase. When the Browns fired both head coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley it was seen by some as a desperation move. The two men were reportedly engaged in a battle of wills over the development of generational quarterback Baker Mayfield. Instead of taking sides in the feud, Cleveland owner Jimmy Haslam did the smart thing and sent them both packing.

Team owners are frequently criticized for ‘interfering’ with operations since the presumption is that the ‘sports people’ know more than the rich guy signing the checks. Haslam might not have as sound of a grasp of ‘X’s and O’s’ as Todd Haley but he most definitely knows how to run a business (he’s CEO of the Pilot/Flying J Truck Stop chain). The ‘sports guy’ way to handle it would have been to a) let Haley and Jackson work things out themselves this season even if it meant that Mayfield’s development suffered or b) take sides in the feud and fire one or the other. Haslam’s move demonstrates that he understands the ‘moving parts’ of his NFL ‘business’ at an extremely high level.

Thanks to Haslam’s decisive action 2018 has been transformed from another ‘lost season’ into a potential turning point for the franchise. The Browns are developing a nice running game to compliment Mayfield’s aerial attack—Nick Chubb has scored touchdowns in five of the Browns’ last six games. The Browns are playing hard for interim head coach Gregg Williams and even more so for well liked offensive coordinator Freddie Hitchens. Hitchens has developed a nice rapport with Mayfield, a fact that won’t be lost on management during the offseason.

The price on the Browns here might scare some bettors off but it shouldn’t. The concept of parity is well established in NFL football and the line about how ‘on any given Sunday’ one team can beat another has become part of the sport’s lexicon. So if the talent level in the NFL is for the most part equal how can the sport be handicapped successfully? If you said ‘by looking at salient emotional/subjective factors’ go to the head of the class. It’s easy to oversimplify ‘motivation’ in sports but there’s no question that a positive mindset—the ‘mental game’–is a common characteristic for success. The Browns are far from Super Bowl level but against a bumbling Cincinnati Bengals they don’t have to be exceptional. One team in this game simply has the right mindset for success, and the other doesn’t. The final score will be indicative of this.

BET CLEVELAND BROWNS -10 OVER CINCINNATI BENGALS