Deja Vu In AFC East As New England Patriots Favored To Win Division

At some point, the New England Patriots won’t be expected to control the AFC East. This year is not the year. The defending Super Bowl champions are a -400 NFL futures betting odds favorite to win the division like they’ve done for 10 straight years and 16 of the past 18. They’re also a +350 top choice to repeat as AFC Champions and a +600 top choice to defend their Super Bowl title. Spoiler alert–taking Tom Brady in the sixth round of the 2000 NFL Draft worked out pretty well for New England. All he’s done is amass 6 Super Bowl rings, 4 Super Bowl MVPs, 3 NFL Regular Season MVP Awards and 14 Pro Bowl selections. He’s also now the oldest quarterback to win a Super Bowl at age 41. Now 42 years old, can Brady beat his own record?

That remains to be seen but the Patriots have a good shot at taking down another divisional title. The rest of the division has shown at least marginal improvement but will it be enough to take New England’s crown? have improved while the teams at the top have at least some ambiguity heading into the 2019 campaign. Here’s a quick look at the division along with predicted order of finish:

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Pats’ biggest lost from last year was tight end Rob Gronkowski to retirement. New England lured Ben Watson out of retirement but he’s been suspended for the first four games of the year due to a failed drug test. Matt LaCosse, Stephen Anderson, Andrew Beck and Ryan Izzo are the rest of the tight ends on the depth chart. This quartet has combined for 63 career receptions in the NFL. Gronkowski had 47 in just 13 games last year. For now, either Izzo or LaCosse are expected to start. No Gronk means that Brady will look to his wide receivers more often. Obviously that means Julian Edelman will be a frequent target but rookie N’Keal Harry out of Arizona State will get his share of looks. Harry is physically monstrous for the position (6’4″ 225) and if he shows some skills he could quickly become a big part of the Pats’ offense. Pats have a relatively easy schedule and play their final two games and 4 of their last 6 at home.

BUFFALO BILLS: Bills look to be the most improved team in the division this year and should be back above .500 after a 6-10 season a year ago. Sean McDermott is a solid head coach and bringing in Ken Dorsey as quarterbacks’ coach should help the maturation process of Josh Allen. Allen will have a new weapon at his disposal thanks to free agent pickup WR Cole Beasley. Excellent draft with a couple of players that could make an immediate impact–none more impressive than defensive tackle Ed Oliver out of Houston who is an absolute beast at 6’2″ 287 with ridiculous athleticism. Matt Milano is back from injury and along with Tremaine Edmunds are a nasty duo to deal with at linebacker. Bills’ second half schedule is brutal–they finish the year playing at Dallas, home against Baltimore, at Pittsburgh, at New England and home against the Jets. Overall, Buffalo’s defense might be the most improved in the league and if Allen gets better the Bills could be the surprise team of the season.

NEW YORK JETS: The Jets and Dolphins both look to be a cut below Buffalo and New England. Jets have better personnel on hand but not a fan of new head coach Adam Gase who is expected to develop Sam Darnold into a legit franchise quarterback. Problem is that Gase’s system is a poor fit for Darnold’s skill set. Keep in mind that Gase’s offenses in Miami regressed each year during his tenure ranked #24, #25 and #31. Dolphins were also one of the most penalized teams in the league. Jets’ defense got a huge boost with the selection of defensive tackle Quinnen Williams out of Alabama. And then there’s Le’Veon Bell who should give New York some immediate help on offense as will wide receiver Jamison Crowder.

MIAMI DOLPHINS: Former New England Patriots’ linebackers coach Brian Flores should be an upgrade on the sidelines. Miami signed cornerback Xavien Howard to an extension but for the most part jettisoned high price underachievers like Ryan Tannehill, Cam Wake and Robert Quinn. The Dolphins aren’t really in rebuild mode–they might be in ‘gut the roster and *then* rebuild’ mode. That’s actually a better long-term plan but can be painful in the short-term. Miami’s ‘best case scenario’ long-term might be to struggle this year and pick up a high draft pick. They’ve at least got a couple of capable veteran quarterbacks on the roster with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen.

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH:

1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
2. BUFFALO BILLS
3. NEW YORK JETS
4. MIAMI DOLPHINS

BET BUFFALO BILLS +900 TO WIN AFC EAST
BET BUFFALO BILLS OVER 7.5 WINS +110
BET MIAMI DOLPHINS UNDER 4.5 WINS +110
BET NEW YORK JETS UNDER 7.5 WINS +100

If New England falters, someone will have to win the division. Should that happen, Buffalo has the best mix of talent, coaching and chemistry to get it done and at a hefty price to boot. Expect the Bills to be much improved this year while the Jets and Dolphins…not so much.

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