FRIDAY AFTERNOON QUARTERBACK: NFL WEEK 1

BY ADAM GREENE

Alright, it’s time to come to grips with a simple truth — Jared Goff is Patrick Mahomes’ father. I don’t understand it anymore than the rest of you do, but in two games against Mahomes and the Chiefs Goff has been fantastic and led his team to come from behind victories. The first, a 54-51 victory with the Los Angeles Rams where he threw for 413 yards and four touchdowns. This time, in the Thursday night season opener with the Detroit Lions, he threw for 253 yards and a score to win 21-20 in a game I’m not sure even Dan Campbell’s kids thought they had a chance to win.

We all watched it happen in real time. He outplayed Mahomes again, who was good for 21 of 39 passing for 226 yards, two touchdowns and a pick (which honestly wasn’t his fault). And, hey, I’m not a coach or an athletic trainer, but I think it should be a good idea for receivers and pass catchers to lay off the buttered popcorn between snaps. Maybe hold off on that DIY oil change while the actual contest is happening. But, hey, like Mina Kimes, one of my favorite NFL analysts in the business, I too have never played a down of professional football. Maybe a good Aveeno lotion-ing up pre-snap is the norm for a big time game.

How big was the absence of Chris Jones in the middle of the defensive line for Kansas City? He’s not Aaron Donald, but Jones is, at worst, the third best defensive lineman in the league and his only real competition at No. 2 is Quinnen Williams with the New York Jets. Even though the Lions rushed for just 118 total yards, they got the big runs when they needed them, it set up the play action and Goff was sacked just once. So, if I’m Jones, I’m checking my Venmo every 30 minutes or so today.

On the flipside, while the Chiefs didn’t surrender a sack on Mahomes, he was hit plenty and the team rushed for a total of 90 yards and that leading rusher? Mahomes with 45 yards. Mahomes is a sneakily good runner, but that’s not his game and the fewer times he has to do that the better. A week or so ago I saw Isiah Pacheco called himself one of the best running backs in the game. He answered that call with eight carries for 23 yards and all but 26 of them came from a single carry. I don’t feel like 2.87 yards per carry puts you in the “Best RB in the League” category. But, again, I’m like Steven A. Smith, Nick Wright and Mike Greenberg. I never played a single snap in the league. Why that’s never mentioned with those guys and is with Mina, I mean, I have no idea.

Maybe you have some theories?

But, hey, let’s make some picks.

SUNDAY

CAROLINA PANTHERS AT ALTANTA FALCONS (-3.5, O/U: 39.5)

For maybe the first time in recent history, NFL Red Zone’s Scott Hansen has no apologies pre-prepared. Yes, this is probably the worst game on the Week 1 Sunday schedule, but there’s still plenty to garner your interest here. You could see how poorly the Panthers have added offensive linemen to protect the No. 1 overall quarterback Bryce Young, they spent so much on. Or, you could enjoy watching Arthur Smith, the odds-on (for reasons no one can explain to me) favorite to win Coach of the Year began an outright campaign to get fired before you start buying yams for the sweet potato casserole. Falcons 20, Panthers 13

HOUSTON TEXANS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (-9.5, O/U: 43.5)

Houston has ruined so many survivor pools in Week 1, I legitimately skipped them here. Yes, here, playing at the Ravens with an actual competent offensive coordinator. I believe in Baltimore and I even believe in the line. But the Texans will always get my stink eye in Week 1 when it comes to survivor pools, so I’m saving them for later. I am stoked to see what Lamar Jackson can do with Odell Beckham, Jr., which is why I picked OBJ for my fantasy team. Ravens 41, Texans 17

CINCINNATI BENGALS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (+1.5, O/U: 48)

Here’s a crazy stat for you. Before Deshaun Watson made his official debut for the Cleveland Browns, Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow had never beaten his fellow Ohio team. He’d put up good stats, even as a rookie before he tore his knee up but was 0-4 against Cleveland until they faced off on Dec. 11 last year. In Burrow’s worst game against Cleveland, by far, (he completed just 54.5 percent of his passes and threw a pick), he finally got that off his back. So, Watson playing in Cleveland is already working out pretty well for the state of Ohio. Bengals 27, Browns 23

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+5.5, O/U: 46.5)

It’s the “next Andrew Luck” versus the team that ruined the “former Andrew Luck’s” career. I’m as curious as anyone about how Anthony Richardson will pan out as a real NFL quarterback, but one thing I don’t believe is that a guy that struggles with accuracy is going to be able to realistically compete with a Final Four team from a year ago led by a guy who might really be the “next Andrew Luck.” And that guy has a line and competent head coach. Jaguars 37, Colts 20

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-5, O/U: 45.5)

I’m not sure what Six Million Dollar man machines Oscar Goldman has hooked up to Kirk Cousins before this game, but one thing they won’t have to worry about is gametime. It’s a 1 pm start in a contest that won’t be available all over the country, outside of NFL Sunday Ticket. It’s early. It’s regional. I mean, that’s like a flannel, short-sleaved shirt on the Walmart discount rack — it’s Kirk Cousins time. Meanwhile, let’s just hope Baker Mayfield’s old iPhone’s screen’s not so cracked he can’t get directions to the stadium. Vikings 41, Buccaneers 20

TENNESSEE TITANS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3, O/U: 41.5)

What happens when two middling franchises from the two worst divisions meet in Week 1 of the NFL season? That someone who put the schedule together just shrugged their shoulders and said, this is your problem now, Scott Hanson. Tennessee could flirt with six or seven wins this season and be fine. If New Orleans doesn’t win at least nine, they’re going clean out every coach and set them on the curb like Bobcat Goldthwait in Scrooged. NoLa better win this one. Saints 23, Titans 17

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+2.5, O/U: 41.5)

No team looked better in the preseason than the Steelers and this is the year that Kenny Pickett can make the leap. At the same time, no team was fleeced harder in a trade involving Trey Lance, for a second time, than the Niners were here this summer. There was a thought, just a few months ago, that Brock Purdy might not be ready to play in this one. When TJ Watt buries him into the Hienz Field (yes, I know it’s named something else, but I’m not using that name because I respect my friends from Pittsburgh too much), the Brock-ster might have wished his recovery wasn’t quite this speedy. Fun fact: Pittsburgh has not lost a season opener since 2019. Steelers 27, 49ers 23

ARIZONA CARDINALS AT WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (-7, O/U: 37.5)

There are games that will show up on the season schedule all year that you’ll point at and say, “that’s the one that cost that squad a shot at the playoffs.” We’re not dealing with that here. We have two of the worst teams in the NFL with two of the worst quarterback situations I’ve seen in my adult life. And they’ve done it all on purpose. The winner of this game could very well cost itself the No. 1 overall pick and a shot at Caleb Williams out of USC (or, you know, trading away that selection for a bevy of picks). I’m sorry, Commanders. You draw the short end of the straw. Commanders 17, Cardinals 13

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT CHICAGO BEARS (-1, O/U: 42)

I cannot stress to you, if this is the first NFL season in which you’re paying attention to betting lines, what it’s like to see the Bears a favorite, even by a single point, over the Packers. And, here’s the thing, I believe it 100 percent. I do think it’ll be close, but I also think Chicago can win it. Because, honestly, even if the Packers fall to pieces this season, losing this one out of the gate could ruin Chicago’s year and that normally doesn’t happen until all the Halloween decorations are out. Bears 24, Packers 16

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS AT DENVER BRONCOS (-3.5, O/U: 44)

Here we have it. The match up between Sean Payton, possibly one of the best head coaches in NFL history and Josh McDaniels, a guy that would struggle to empty the mop bucket after cleaning up vomit at a Golden Corall. Payton’s first job was to come in and fix his struggling quarterback. McDaniels recurring plan is to ostracize and chase off whatever Pro Bowl quarterback is on the roster when he’s tossed the key codes to enter the facility. The results? One guy has won a Super Bowl and was a consistent contender the entire time he ran his former team. The other has never posted a winning record and was fired halfway through his second season. I’ll let you decide which guy fits each description. Broncos 38, Raiders 19

MIAMI DOLPHINS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-3, O/U: 51.5)

For all the games set up in Week 1, we don’t get many potential playoff pairings. This game, the Rams at Seahawks game and the Sunday Night and Monday Night games, feel like it, but there are 12 more outside of that. While every contest matters in the NFL, the head-to-heads against your conference opponents matter the most and it’d be a shame for either of these squads to miss out in a tiebreaker over something that happened while your kid hasn’t lost his favorite mechanical pencil at school. For the Dolphins, the key is keeping Tua Tagovailoa healthy, so I’ll be interested, especially facing Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, how they’re going to do that. For LA, it’s all about unleashing their offense because there is no excuse for a team this talented to just Kramer its way into the playoffs once again. This is a long trip for Miami too and I think it costs them. Chargers 27, Dolphins 24

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (+4, 45)

I am mystified by this spread. Did no one watch the Eagles put forth one of the best offenses in the world a year ago? Am I the only person that remembers they were a stupid fumble away from defeating the Chiefs in the Super Bowl? I don’t care if they’re playing at Foxboro. Tom Brady isn’t suiting up for New England here, but you know who is? Bill Belichick’s two sons, Pudknocker and Cooterbooger or whatever the hell their names are. Eagles 41, Patriots 17

LOS ANGELES RAMS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-5, O/U: 46.5)

If the Rams are going to prove the naysayers wrong, they’ll have to do it without All-Universe wide receiver Cooper Kupp. Luckily for them, their other two stars, Matthew Stafford and Aaron Donald have four functioning hamstrings between them. Los Angeles saw its season end last year with an overtime loss to nearly this exact same Seahawks team (with the exception of Bobby Wagner – who was a Ram- and Jaxon Smith-Njiba – who was rehabbing an injury at Ohio State). Wagner will play a lot. JSN, probably not as much, but considering the damage the referees did in this contest last year, I have a feeling the officials will be on their best behavior and LA will surprise some people. Fun fact: No player in NFL history was sacked more by another player than former Seattle QB Russell Wilson was by Aaron Donald. It’s time for AD99 to start a new streak against Geno Smith. Rams 31, Seahawks 23

Preseason

Straight up: 26-21-2

Against the spread: 26-23

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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