FRIDAY AFTERNOON QUARTERBACK: NFL WEEK 10

BY ADAM GREENE

We started Week 10 off with a shocker as it picked up the upset baton passed from Week 9. While I didn’t think the Baltimore Ravens would cover, because that’s been their thing this year, I did not think for a second that the Miami Dolphins could win outright. But that’s exactly what they did, 22-10.

When you remember that Brian Flores can do this, take away a team’s offense that relies too heavily on one formation or set of plays, then it makes more sense. He literally did it to Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams twice. Once in Super Bowl LIII as defensive coordinator of the New England Patriots and then again last season, knocking them off 28-17 as head coach of the Dolphins. If Flores can flummox one of the best playcallers of this generation, he sure as hell should be expected to shut down anything Greg Roman can come up with.

The problem was, of course, the horses. Baltimore is full of them. The Dolphins have very few. But the players Miami does have showed up in a big way, with Xavien Howard returning a fumble 49 yards for a touchdown in the third quarter that blew the game open. Frankly, when Justin Tucker missed a 48 yard field goal in the first half, we should have all known the Ravens were in deep trouble.

Tua Tagovailoa came off the bench and saved the day, fractured finger and all. He finished 8 of 13 for 158 yards and led three scoring drives, punching it in himself on a QB keeper.

It makes you wonder where Miami would be if they hadn’t openly flirted with replacing him for Deshaun Watson and he’d been healthy all year. Of course, Tagovailoa’s injury issues were a knock on him coming into the draft, so what can you do?

We still have a weekend left full of upset potential and plenty of games with real postseason implications. Let’s pick them.

Byes: Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, New York Giants, Houston Texans

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-10.5, O/U: 47.5)

The only thing that would shock me more than the Jags upsetting the Bills is if they somehow managed to do it two weeks in a row. This only thing scary about Indy and this game is the spread. The Colts remain alive in the playoff hunt, but can’t afford anymore stupid losses. Ultimately, there’s just no way Jacksonville plays above its head in consecutive weeks. Colts 27, Jaguars 16

CLEVELAND BROWNS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-1, O/U: 45.5)

All it took for people to begin work on Mac Jones’ Pro Football Hall of Fame jacket again was a couple of wins in a row. If the playoffs started today, the Pats would be in and that’s something. As for Cleveland, Baker Mayfield’s kryptonite is apparently trailing in the fourth quarter. As long as his team is ahead, he’s Superman. Browns 24, Patriots 17

ATLANTA FALCONS AT DALLAS COWBOYS (-9, O/U: 55)

Now that I’m starting to feel better about my preseason Falcons playoff pick, this is just the time where they will absolutely let me down. Dak Prescott probably came back a game early and it cost Dallas against the Denver Broncos last week. He’ll take it out on an Atlanta team that absolutely does not have it in them to perform at a winning level two weeks in a row. And after a last second victory no less? Cowboys 31, Falcons 20

BUFFALO BILLS AT NEW YORK JETS (+12.5, O/U: 47.5)

I don’t know what to think about Mike White other than his name sounds fake, as if the FBI created it for a mobster in witness protection. His college stats were fine and, really, his redshirt junior year at Western Kentucky was pretty spectacular, but what does that mean at the NFL level? He’s had one great game and a pretty good quarter, but if he can look anything like that Sunday against Buffalo, he’ll create the dumbest QB controversy in the history of the NFL. I’m betting against it, mainly because the Bills have to be dying to get back on the field after dropping a public deuce against Jacksonville a week before. Bills 41, Jets 19

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT TENNESSEE TITANS (-2.5, O/U: 44.5)

As big a win as the Titans had Sunday, this is still the team that fell to the Jets a month ago. Do I think New Orleans will win? No. Do I think the Saints can win against an overconfident Tennessee squad that’s won five in a row? You better believe it. Especially considering their offense did absolutely nothing against the Rams a week ago. Titans 17, Saints 16

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (+10, O/U: 51.5)

Both these teams are coming off the bye and going in completely different directions. The good news for the Washington Football Team is, if they don’t like any of the quarterbacks in next year’s draft, they can pick up a solid guy via trade or free agency in the offseason. The bad news for WFT is, it’s still not the offseason. Tampa Bay had a week to stew on their loss to the Saints and get healthier on the back end of their defense. Buccaneers 34, WFT 19

DETROIT LIONS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-9, O/U: 42.5)

Jared Goff is now 0-15 without Sean McVay as his head coach, but more importantly, he has the Detroit Lions on the cusp of history. Detroit was the first team once the NFL went to 16 games to go 0-16. They were also one of the league’s four winless teams during Word War II when half the players went off to fight, going 0-11 in 1942. That means that not only could the Lions be the league’s first 0-17 team, they could be the first to go winless in three seasons of their franchise’s history. They’re already the only team to do it twice. Goff isn’t a horrible NFL quarterback when everything goes perfect around him, but nothing is going perfect in Detroit. And this week he has TJ Watt heading his way for a multi-sack game. Steelers 38, Lions 23

MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-3, O/U: 53)

Speaking of distractions, the Vikings have a Dalvin Cook sized one they’re dealing with this week. They’ll probably play him, but it shouldn’t matter against a LA team that just has to start stacking up wins to put away a playoff spot and possible AFC West title. Chargers 27, Vikings 23

CAROLINA PANTHERS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (-10, O/U: 44)

Cam Newton makes his triumphant return to the team that’s been absolutely lost without him. He’ll probably be in uniform and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him play if Arizona gets up big in the second half. Still, it’s most likely PJ Walker’s loss the whole way as the Cardinals are healthy and rolling. Here’s a fun fact about the Panthers. They still have Teddy Bridgewater on their cap and are stuck with Sam Darnold on their cap for another year. All in an attempt to replace Newton, a former Super Bowl QB and NFL MVP. And now they’ve brought Newton back. And I am thrilled about it. It’s where he belongs. Cardinals 34, Panthers 13

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3, O/U: 49.5)

If Aaron Rodgers tests negative for COVID-19 Saturday (and it’s a big “if” and everyone is acting like it’s a given), then he’ll suit up for Green Bay. Meanwhile, Seattle will also see the return of their QB, Russell Wilson, from a finger injury. The Seahawks’ season is on the line here as six losses could very well keep them out of the Wild Card hunt with so many NFC West games coming. As for the Pack, if Rodgers does play, we have no idea what that will look like. He’s not been able to work out or throw so much as a tennis ball for the last two weeks. But he is mad, at all of us apparently, for deciding that he’s a lying liar who lied, so that’s an X-Factor as well. I’m going Green Bay, but low scoring. Packers 19, Seahawks 14

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT DENVER BRONCOS (-2.5, O/U: 45.5)

The Broncos appeared to fold their cards when they traded Von Miller, but fooled everyone, knocking off the heavily favored Cowboys. Philadelphia, a team I have yet to figure out, gave the Chargers everything they could handle in a three-point loss. All that is to say, I think this game is a coin flip and I’m just going with Denver at home. Broncos 20, Eagles 17

Last week

Straight up: 7-7

Against the spread: 5-9

Season

Straight up: 83-53

Against the spread: 68-68

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan

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