FRIDAY AFTERNOON QUARTERBACK: NFL WEEK 16

BY ADAM GREENE

We are in the midst of a football bonanza as, starting Thursday night, there will be some kind of football game, college or pro, happening every single night for the remainder of 2023. The NFL games are spread out over the weekend, with two games on Saturday, this group on Christmas Eve and then three full games on Christmas Day. Many with playoff implications.

It all started last night with the Los Angeles Rams getting over .500 for the first time this season since Week 1 as they knocked off the New Orleans Saints, 30-22, in a game that wasn’t really that close. The Saints put some points up in garbage time, but LA controlled the action from the opening whistle.

Matthew Stafford continues his tear since Thanksgiving, finishing 23 of 34 for 328 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Over the last six games, coming out of their bye, the Rams are 5-1 and Stafford has thrown 15 touchdowns, two picks and for 1,578 yards. Puca Nakua, with nine catches for 164 yard and a touchdown, is putting together one of the greatest rookie wide receiver campaigns in NFL history and running back Kyren Williams is the first Ram running back to hit 1,000 yards in a season since Todd Gurley did it in 2018, a Super Bowl year for the team. And Williams did it while missing four games due to injury. Defensively, the two best rookie pass rushers also happen to be on this team, with Kobe Turner leading the class with 6.5 sacks and Byron Young at No. 2 with six sacks. I think Les Snead’s “remodel, not rebuild” has gone pretty well. And this team will have a full compliment of draft picks and clear salary cap next season, regardless of how this one ends.

New Orleans, of course, could still find its way into the postseason and save Dennis Allen’s job. Though, I’m not sure why anyone would want that. There are some good pieces in NoLa, but Allen is obviously not the guy, even though the defense is still pretty decent under him. Last night was the first 300 yard passing performance Allen’s D has given up this season. While Allen obviously isn’t head coach material, he’ll land a defensive coordinator job somewhere and should.

With all the featured and Prime Time games this week, we just have nine in our Sunday mid-day slate, but there are some good ones and plenty of playoff positions to be determined. Let’s pick them!

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT ATLANTA FALCONS (-1, O/U: 44.5)

It’s the Gardner Minshew III vs Taylor Heinicke quarterback duel we’ll be talking to our great grandchildren about. The 30 for 30 is already being planned here and NFL Films will probably have a few extra cameras on hand to chronicle this historic matchup. The fact that both these teams are still in the playoff mix in December is shocking. More shocking is the fact that, if the playoffs started today, the Colts would be in it. And Arthur Smith would be fired. Falcons 24, Colts 23

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (+4.5, O/U: 37.5)

Green Bay had a playoff spot all but sewn up but decided to stumble around like me on Christmas morning after my third mimosa. They’ve dropped two in a row as favorites, one at home where the defense allowed Baker Mayfield to put up a perfect quarterback rating for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Now they’re at Carolina which is the good news, as it should be a de facto home game because Panthers fans can’t be bothered to show up and watch their team kick three field goals for four quarters. Packers 31, Panthers 13

CLEVELAND BROWNS AT HOUSTON TEXANS (+2.5, O/U: 40)

I think most of us, with a healthy Deshaun Watson, expected the Browns to be in the playoff conversation, but no one outside of DeMeco Ryans’ household expected Houston to be in it. But that’s what’s happening and while Cleveland could lose this one and remain in the bracket, a loss for Houston here could be tough to bounce back from this late in the season if the Jacksonville Jaguars can pull out of their nosedive. Case Keenum, who began his career with the Texans before playing for virtually every other NFL franchise, will need to work some real magic in what could be the best battle of backups, between him and Joe Flacco, of the weekend. Browns 27, Texans 23

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT TENNESSEE TITANS (+3, O/U: 41.5)

I predicted a few weeks ago that the Seahawks, once they slipped to .500, would not see a winning record again in 2023. To spite me, Seattle upset the Philadelphia Eagles last Monday night and now face a Tennessee team already playing for next season, as they’ve been officially eliminated from AFC playoff contention. It does the Titans no good at all to win now, which is, honestly, the best reason to pick them here. Teams love to screw up their draft positioning in December. Titans 20, Seahawks 17

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS AT NEW YORK JETS (-3, O/U: 37.5)

Well, Scott Hanson, here’s the good news. This ridiculous game that could end up 6-3 is happening in the 1 p.m. window, so you have a real shot at never tossing to it even once as both these teams could be held out of the red zone for the entire 60 minutes of actual football played. The bad news? Because of that, Scott will probably have to point us to this one because the first half will go by so fast after each team wears out its punter’s kicking leg that it’ll be the only game in live action while everyone else is at halftime. Might be time to take that piss break after all. Jets 10, Commanders 6

DETROIT LIONS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+3, O/U: 47.5)

The only thing shocking about the Vikings’ loss last week with Nick Mullens at quarterback is that the game was close at all. It just shows how good an offense Kevin O’Connell is running there and how important it is for this team to hit on its next QB, or bring back Kirk Cousins. Minnesota currently holds the seventh seed in the NFC, but a win here would put them back to six, which would set up a potential rematch with these same Lions in the playoffs. But nobody wants that. We want the Rams to be the six and for Matthew Stafford to bring LA to Detroit in the Wild Card Round. At this point, we’re kind of demanding it as a civilization. Lions 34, Vikings 16

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-2, O/U: 41)

As I mentioned earlier, Baker Mayfield just unleashed the beast at Lambeau Field a week ago, becoming just the second QB to record a 158.3 perfect passer rating in that Stadium. The other guy? Aaron Rodgers. Mayfield is getting his just rewards for getting run out of Cleveland with a potential playoff run in Tampa Bay. Trevor Lawrence isn’t having the same kind of December and, if he was any other player, would probably be sitting out this one with his leg injury. But Lawrence, apparently, has an adamantium skeleton and a mutant healing factor. At this point, this game is a must win for the Jags, but I still like the Bucs at home. Sorry Tampa Bay fans. You’re getting at least one more season of Todd Bowles as head coach. Buccaneers 27, Jaguars 24

DALLAS COWBOYS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS (-1, O/U: 49.5)

Speaking of head coaches on the hot seat, Mike McCarthy is probably doing his best job as a head man in his entire career and will still get fired if Dallas doesn’t make it to the NFC Championship. They could have taken a serious step to get there last week but were blown out on the road in Buffalo. Now they face one of the most potent and creative offenses in the league. Thanks to the Rams winning Thursday night, the Cowboys can now claim two victories over teams with winning records on the season. Miami still has none. Until Sunday. Dolphins 34, Cowboys 31

ARIZONA CARDINALS AT CHICAGO BEARS (-4, O/U: 43)

Yes, both these teams are either realistically or mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, but this could legitimately be a fun, high scoring game that, at the end of the season, will mean absolutely nothing to either team. In fact, losing this one would be the ideal situation for both franchises. Since Jonathan Gannon’s job is safe, my money’s on Matt Eberflus pulling this one out with Justin Fields, who might be auditioning for other teams. Hell, Kyler Murray might be doing the same thing. Bears 31, Cardinals 27

Last week

Straight up: 10-6

Against the spread: 8-8

Season

Straight up: 112-70

Against the spread: 100-82

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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