FRIDAY AFTERNOON QUARTERBACK: NFL WEEK 4

BY ADAM GREENE

Well, both the Green Bay Packers and I took a hard “L” to open the week. I’d fallen for the “maybe I was wrong about Jordan Love” scenario I’d crafted in my own head. I’m always ready, if not excited, to be wrong about a QB prospect because the league needs them so badly.

Dammit. I’m just too good at this apparently.

Jared Goff had a solid game for the Lions, going 19 of 28 passing for 210 yards, one touchdown and a pick. He also nabbed a solid endorsement from Al Michaels who complimented his “ball handling” and Kirk Herbstreit just let it happen without saying a word.

I mean, this is worse than last week when Tom Pellisaro told the NFL Gameday crew that Kareem Hunt would get a “Chubb-like load” from the Cleveland Browns.

Do I have to do everything?

I will say that, yes, David Montgomery had an outstanding game, rushing 32 times for 121 yards and three touchdowns for Detroit, but as one of the many fantasy football managers who snapped up Jahmyr Gibbs VERY EARLY in my draft…. I am perplexed. Especially since he averaged 5.0 yards per carry in that game and 4.6 on the year.

Ah well, we have a full slate of Sunday afternoon games so let’s pick them.

ATLANTA FALCONS AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-3, O/U: 43)

This game is not only going to be played in London and at 9:30 am EST, but, depending on where you’re watching it, by Buzz Lightyear, Woody and the Toy Story gang. I’m not sure which team is fielding which Disney Pixar action figure, but here’s what I do know. London is the Jags’ second home and they better not lose two games in a row, especially to a team like Atlanta that’ll be lucky to get to 8-9 at season’s end, regardless of which Potato Head they lean their offense on. Jaguars 31, Falcons 17

MIAMI DOLPHINS AT BUFFALO BILLS (-2.5, O/U: 53.5)

If the NFL needed to make an argument to flex games literally from Week 2 on, this is it. The fact that we’re getting the best game of the week stuck in the 1 p.m. window and probably not ideal when Zach Wilson and the New York Jets are coming up against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night. Of course, Taylor Swift will probably be there so NBC’s not going to be hurting for ratings. While I’m loving that whole thing, I’d still rather have the best games in Prime Time. This one will absolutely be the top contest. Looking at the coverage map, the vast majority of us (or, you know, you guys who don’t use NFL Red Zone or Sunday Ticket) will get this one, there’s a lot of poor suckers out there that’ll be sitting through the Broncos and Bears game and that’s just heartbreaking. Taylor Swift won’t be there. Sure, maybe Ashley Simpson will be, but she’ll be too busy working the chimichanga stand to be of much help. Anyway, it wouldn’t shock me to see Buffalo literally hold this line, but I’m not picking against Miami until they give me a reason to. Dolphins 31, Bills 30

MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (+4.5, O/U: 46.5)

We have two loser leaves town matchups this week, but the Vikings already lost their first one last week, so I’m pretending that’s why they’re in Carolina Sunday. Both these squads are 0-3. Bryce Young is expected to suit up and play but considering he’s lining up behind saloon doors on the offensive line, I’m confident that won’t matter. I do hope Young can come out of this one healthy. As for Minnesota, until they start winning, the Kirk Cousins trade talk isn’t going away and considering he’s on pace for a 6,091-yard, 51 touchdown, 11 pick season, he’s definitely not the problem in Minny. I don’t care what time they’re kicking off. Vikings 38, Panthers 16

DENVER BRONCOS AT CHICAGO BEARS (+3, O/U: 46.5)

The fact that this is a three-point spread is funny enough. The fact that Chicago has a puncher’s chance against a defense that gave up 70 points last week is hilarious. For comedy’s sake alone, I hope I am wrong. I will be rooting for the Bears all the way here. But, you know, Matt Eberflus is probably already looking at U-Haul groupons at this point. And if Sean Payton can run it up after last week, he absolutely will. Broncos 44, Bears 20

BALTIMORE RAVENS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-2.5, O/U: 40.5)

I can tell you this without even thinking that hard about it. The fact that the new Browns are favored by 2.5 over the Ravens is the worst possible thing that could have happened to Cleveland since, well, they realized they were Cleveland. As mojo goes, this is as bad as it gets. Baltimore is coming off a dumb loss. The Browns enter this one looking the best they have all season. This is the Browniest recipe for disaster since Art Model decided he liked crab cakes. Ravens 34, Browns 23

PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT HOUSTON TEXANS (+2.5, O/U: 42)

That +2.5 is a lot of respect for Houston and they’ve earned it. CJ Stroud, as I predicted in the pre-draft process, looks like the best quarterback of this class. Pittsburgh actually put it all together last week, but even Matt Canada is going to Matt Canada again, I can’t see the Steelers defense letting this one go. I like Stroud, but he’s probably in for a rough day and a hefty dose of TJ Watt’s aftershave. Steelers 24, Texans 20

LOS ANGELES RAMS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (pk, O/U: 46)

Anthony Richardson has practiced this week, so I’m pretty sure he’s a go. Los Angeles is coming off a game they should have won, with two awful calls taking two touchdowns off the board, but it was also a pretty rough game for Sean McVay. He seems to always find a groove against the Colts and I’m guessing he does again. And, you know, while he and Les Snead are in the building, let’s talk a little Jonathan Taylor with Chris Ballard. Literally get the most out of this trip. Rams 31, Colts 21

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3, O/U: 39.5)

I’m not getting this line with Jameis Winston likely to start for New Orleans. If I’m the Bucs secondary, I’m looking over my contract to see how many incentives I can pick up in this one. Buccaneers 24, Saints 19

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-9, O/U: 43.5)

Remember back when the Commanders were 2-0? They may not see another victory until the Halloween candy is stale and stuck together at the bottom of an old McDonald’s Halloween bucket. This is basically a week off for Philly. Enjoy it guys. Eagles 41, Commanders 13

CINCINNATI BENGALS AT TENNESSEE TITANS (+2.5, O/U: 41)

You know how to screw up getting your first win over a solid Rams team? Lose to a very not solid Tennessee team. I think Cincinnati is on the upswing and if a couple of bad ref calls helped in the process, Joe Burrow and company shouldn’t complain too much about it. I will say that Jeffrey Simmons heading into the Cincy backfield is worrisome. Bengals 27, Titans 20

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-5, O/U: 48.5)

Nothing can fix everything wrong with the Los Angeles defense like facing off against a Josh McDaniels head coached team. I am worried about Jimmy Garoppolo, who historically runs through SoFi Stadium on the reg like a string of porn stars, but I’m rolling with Brandon Staley to cool off his lawn chair a tad here. I mean, if anyone’s gonna help there, it’s McDaniels. Chargers 44, Raiders 24

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT DALLAS COWBOYS (-6, O/U: 43.5)

The sole goal I have with the Pats this year is to ensure they finish with a losing record, so Bill Belichick has to stew with a full diaper next summer on HBO’s Hard Knocks, along with his sons, Flunt and Spork, or whatever the hell their names are. I would love for the talent differential alone to show up here, but Mike McCarthy against Bill Belichick is about as bad a match up as Mike McCarthy vs a plate of jalapeno poppers. As for the Dallas defensive backs, be careful out there. Mac Jones is apparently doing unwelcome scrotal checks when least expected. Cowboys 24, Patriots 20

ARIZONA CARDINALS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-14, O/U: 44)

For a team struggling to tank in spite of what looks like a decent new head coach and a super smart quarterback, running into the brick wall that is the San Francisco 49ers at home should be a big help. If anything, if I’m the Niners, I think about easing up in this one to keep Caleb Williams out of the NFC West. 49ers 38, Cardinals 13

Last week

Straight up: 12-4

Against the spread: 11-5

Season

Straight up: 32-16

Against the spread: 27-21

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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