FRIDAY AFTERNOON QUARTERBACK: NFL WEEK 7

BY ADAM GREENE

Week 7 opened the best way possible, with me taking a solid win as the Jacksonville Jaguars outlasted the New Orleans Saints 31-24. It was a boring game for three and a half quarters that got super interesting at the end.

It was so bad that I bailed on the sports bar I was watching it in before the third quarter even ended. To be fair, the Jags were up 24-9 at the time so it seemed a safe bet to beat the drunks home. It turns out, I was a victim of premature sports bar evacuation as the Saints managed to tie the game right before I got home. I entered my own abode just in time to see their comeback fall short after a 44-yard ridiculous touchdown reception from Christian Kirk that put Jacksonville up by seven with less than three minutes to go.

New Orleans battled their way down to the Jacksonville six and with a chance to tie the game, Derek Carr, as he often does, came up just short on an incomplete pass, this time to Chris Olave, with 25 seconds to go in the game. It was a drive, and a game, really, that pretty much sums up Carr’s entire NFL career. He’s an above average quarterback, better than most, that isn’t quite at the franchise level and can never seem to make the play when it counts. I feel for him. New Orleans is lucky to have him. But this is the Derek Carr experience in a nut shell.

Anyway, we’ve got a ton of byes this week, with six teams hitting their chez lounges Sunday, but let’s pick the rest of these Sunday mid-day games.

Byes: Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans

ATLANTA FALCONS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-2.5, O/U: 37)

The Falcons have lost three of their last four and, for whatever reason, Arthur Smith doesn’t appear to be on the hot seat. Now, I think his Autonomous ErgoChair Pro should be engulfed in flames, but I’m not in charge of the Atlanta NFL football club. This is his third season now and he still doesn’t know who his quarterback will be next year. I’m guessing he might not have to worry about that. As for Todd Bowles, a guy everybody thought would get fired this year, he has the Bucs atop the NFC South as the only team with a winning record. I think that particular stat will be held up by 4 p.m.-ish Sunday. Buccaneers 31, Falcons 23

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS AT CHICAGO BEARS (+2.5, O/U: 37.5)

Here it is, the dream scenario we’ve all been waiting for. It’s Vegas without Jimmy Garoppolo facing off against the Bears without Justin Fields Who’s starting for the Raiders? Maybe Brian Hoyer. Maybe rookie Aiden O’Connell. We do know who’s starting for Chicago and it’s none other than Tyson Bagent, a guy who made his last start for NCAA Division II Shepard in a loss to the Colorado School of Mines, a real place that I have been to. It’s very nice, not for Bagent who was sacked eight times and picked off twice in that game, but still, Golden, Colo. is a beautiful locale. I’m going with Las Vegas, regardless of who’s under center, but I’m not feeling great about it. Raiders 17, Bears 13

CLEVELAND BROWNS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+3, O/U: 40.5)

Speaking of a battle of backups, the PJ Walker led Browns will travel to Indianapolis to take on the Gardner Minshew led Colts, a matchup that no one on the planet wants to see happen. Deshaun Watson vs Anthony Richardson? That was gold. This? Like a clump of cat litter box sand. Browns 20, Colts 16

DETROIT LIONS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3, O/U: 43)

This is a sneakily interesting game. You could call it a potential Super Bowl matchup and you’d be right. Yes, the Lions are probably the third best team in the NFC behind the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers, but a lot can happen once you get into the postseason bracket. Look at Brock Purdy’s injury in the NFC Championship last season. Now, imagine something like that happens to the Eagles or Niners and Detroit is full strength. Baltimore is a legit AFC contender and likely, at worst, an AFC Divisional Round team. I like the blackbirds at home, but this one should be good. Ravens 27, Lions 24

BUFFALO BILLS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (+9, O/U: 40)

Buffalo survived a tough game against the New York Giants, which is a ridiculous thing to write but it happened, and we all watched it in horror. The Pats are in bad shape and it’s glorious. The Mac Jones era could be coming to an end and this game, which should be a bad loss at home, could be where we pick out the headstone. Man, next summer’s Hard Knocks is going to be a blast. Bills 44, Patriots 13

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS AT NEW YORK GIANTS (+2.5, O/U: 37.5)

I know we talk about how Scott Hanson has the best job in sports and everyone wants to ask hi, about how he holds his urine for seven hours. I’m more interested in how he comes up with the appropriate apologies when he has to kick to a game like this because every other NFL Red Zone contest is in halftime or at a commercial break. Here’s a fun fact. Tyrod Taylor, who had his name pronounced “TIE-ROD” for years, admitted back when he was with the Browns it’s actually supposed to be pronounced “TUH-ROD,” which sounded a lot like his first name was “Turd.” Tyrod figured that out pretty quick and immediately went back to the “TIE-ROD” pronunciation. Anyway, Washington wins this one. Commanders 24, Giants 17

ARIZONA CARDINALS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-7.5, O/U: 44.5)

This is the week for the weirdest quarterback duels we’ve maybe ever seen. While we can blame injuries for some of our other contests — Sam Howell vs Tyrod Taylor, Gardner Minshew vs PJ Walker and Aiden O’Connell (probably) vs Tyson Bagent, those can all be blamed on injuries. Our Joshua Dobbs vs Geno Smith face off here is completely intentional. Both teams planned this. This was the idea coming in. Arizona hasn’t been an easy out with Dobbs, as he’s probably the smartest QB in the NFL. Smith has always had NFL quarterback talent, but lacked the other qualities needed. He had great year in 2022 and hasn’t been bad so far and I think he’ll be the difference. But I don’t like the spread. Seahawks 27, Cardinals 20

PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (-3, O/U: 44.5)

Here’s a not so fun fact if you root for Los Angeles (which I happen to do), Mike Tomlin has never lost to the Rams, not in LA or St. Louis. He’s 4-0, even when starting Mason Rudolph in 2019. That game, that Pittsburgh won 17-12, ultimately kept the Rams from making the playoffs and defending their NFC title. Los Angeles missed the postseason with a 9-7 record. Now, this was before seven teams from each conference made the playoffs, so with today’s rules, the Rams would have gotten in, but I hope that still stings Sean McVay enough that he makes this one count. LA will have an entirely new backfield Sunday as both Kyren Williams and his back up Ronnie Rivers are out, right as the team put together its best rushing attack of the season. I like Los Angeles here, as do the books, but I just hope TJ Watt is a gentle lover when it comes to the four sacks he’ll probably rack up against Matthew Stafford in this game. Rams 23, Steelers 20

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-5.5, O/U: 48)

The Chargers come into this game after what should be an embarrassing loss to the Dallas Cowboys, as Brandon Staley was outcoached by Mike McCarthy. That’s something that should come with an automatic pink slip every time. As for the Chiefs, they won an ugly one against the Denver Broncos last week. How ugly? It just showed up under my “most compatible” on Hinge. Chiefs 27, Chargers 20

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT DENVER BRONCOS (+1, O/U: 45)

The wheels have come off the Jordan Love bus over the last couple of weeks, thanks to a bad loss to the Lions and an even worse loss to the Raiders. And, yes, the Vegas game was close, but it’s a Josh McDaniels coached team. Any loss to them is a bad one. Luckily for Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love, they draw Denver this week and can fix a lot of problems really fast against the most laughable team in the sport. Packers 24, Broncos 16

Last week

Straight up: 9-6

Against the spread: 9-6

Season

Straight up: 57-36

Against the spread: 50-43

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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