FRIDAY AFTERNOON QUARTERBACK: WEEK 16

BY ADAM GREENE

Well, that’s not the way you want to start off a week down the stretch. Sure, I could be talking about the San Francisco 49ers, who blew a game they should have won in blowout fashion against the Tennessee Titans, but I’m talking about me.

Because I picked the Niners to win and now I’m down a game before Christmas. This is what I get for banking on Jimmy Garoppolo to do anything other than catch some Lovecraftian STD.

San Francisco couldn’t do much about their current playoff positioning and will exit the week as the NFC’s sixth seed the same as they entered it. But what they have done is open the door for another team to sneak in and knock them out. The 49ers host the Houston Texans next week and that’s a win, sure.

But they wrap up their season at the Los Angeles Rams. Yes, they’ve dominated the Rams under Kyle Shanahan and Jimmy G has literally never lost to LA, but do you want to face a potential NFC West champion, fighting for the division and a home playoff game with the possibility of missing the playoffs entirely if you lose?

What if the Garoppolo that showed up in Nashville suits up in SoFi?

As for the Titans, their 20-17 win over the Niners changed their fortunes. They were able to put a healthy wide receiver corps on the field for the first time in weeks and it paid off. AJ Brown caught 11 passes for 145 yards and a score. Ryan Tannehill was locked in, completing 22 of 29 for 209 yards and that TD to Brown. Tennessee managed it with the whole left side of their offensive line peopled by reserves.

They did just manage only 90 yards on the ground and that’s a recipe for disaster in the playoffs, but it’s not like they were playing chumps on defense. The good news for the Titans is, they’re at worst holding the No. 2 seed after this win and could grab the top spot if the Kansas City Chiefs stumble against the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday.

The same stumble that the Titans suffered last week when they held the top spot in the AFC bracket.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (+10, O/U: 42.5)

Cam Newton is getting the start for the Panthers, but Sam Darnold will be in the bullpen. Against the Bucs? It’s not going to matter. What should factor in is Bruce Arians suddenly understanding nature when he promised his own fanbase and media members that consistently troubled wide receiver Antonio Brown would be on a one strike policy last year. I feel like faking a COVID-19 vaccine card, a federal crime that could come with prison time, should have counted as a solid strike. Arians, though, doesn’t seem to think so now. How much is that “love” for AB or horror at his own wide receiver depth chart? Either way, his QB Tom Brady has proved time and again that karma has no power over the NFL. Buccaneers 31, Panthers 16

NEW YORK GIANTS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-10, O/U: 40.5)

The Eagles are primed to sneak into an NFC Wild Card spot if they can knock off the Daniel Jones-less Giants and get a little help. Here’s a fun fact that will make you want to dive face first off the nearest bridge — current New York starter and Jones’ back up Mike Glennon has made $31.967 million in his NFL career. He’s started 30 games in the league and won just six. That comes out to $5.328 million per victory. Take Philly and the points. Eagles 27, Giants 13

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT HOUSTON TEXANS (+10, O/U: 46)

Tyrod Taylor is expected to start, but the Chargers are coming in pissed off from an overtime loss to the Kansas City Chiefs  and hot, having placed multiple players in the Pro Bowl including the All Star game starting QB, Justin Herbert. It’s the first time a Chargers’ quarterback will start in the Pro Bowl since Dan Fouts. I’m thinking they might put on a show. Chargers 37, Texans 23

DETROIT LIONS AT ATLANTA FALCONS (-5.5, O/U: 43)

Dan Campbell is the first Detroit coach to win a game over a 10 win opponent in more than a decade. While the Falcons don’t fit that criteria, they are still alive in the NFC playoff race, which is the perfect time for the Lions to ruin that for good. Detroit might have to do it without Jared Goff, who is currently on the league’s Covid reserve list. If he’s vaccinated, he might still suit up Sunday. Still, it’s the Lions. I’m going to regret this. Falcons 24, Lions 20 (if Goff plays). Falcons 27, Lions 10 (if Goff doesn’t play)

BALTIMORE RAVENS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (-3, O/U: 45)

Lamar Jackson’s ankle doesn’t seem to be getting any better, so Tyler Huntley gets the call again for Baltimore. The last time these two teams played, Cincy dominated their way to a 41-17 win, but followed it with two of their worst losses of the season. If the Bengals are going to hold onto a playoff spot, they have to win games like this against opponents missing their best player. And, yes, I know that every time I’ve written anything like that about Cincinnati, they’ve soil the bedsheets, so I’m probably all but dooming them again. Bengals 27, Ravens 23

LOS ANGELES RAMS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+3.5, O/U: 49)

Dalvin Cook is out on the league’s Covid reserve list and Kirk Cousins is sitting there unvaccinated. As I’m writing this, Cousins hasn’t tested positive but guys like him and Carson Wentz in Indianapolis are about to be serious problems for their teams trying to secure playoff spots here in the final stretch of the season. Depending on Wentz and what happens in the Arizona Cardinals game Saturday, LA could be playing to take over the NFC West here. After two weeks of being eaten alive by their own COVD-19 issues, the Rams should be at near full strength for this one. Rams 34, Vikings 24

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT NEW YORK JETS (-1, O/U: 41)

For two teams that should be angling for draft picks, nothing is worse than having to play each other. The Jags currently hold the No. 1 pick in April’s NFL Draft. The Jets have the fourth pick in their grasp. A Jacksonville win knocks them down to two. A New York win could drop them as far as six. The Jets might be without head coach Robert Saleh on the league’s Covid reserve list too. It’s a dumpster fire vs a garbage gyre. They should actively play for the tie. I’m holding my nose and going with New York. Jets 17, Jaguars 13

BUFFALO BILLS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-2.5, O/U: 43)

Here it is, Buffalo’s chance at redemption and they can’t blame the weather at their own home field if they don’t get it done. The Pats fell back to Earth last week in a loss to the Colts. I think they keep falling and, frankly, if the Bills can’t win this one by two scores, they don’t’ deserve to make the playoffs at all. Bills 31, Patriots 17

CHICAGO BEARS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-6.5 O/U: 42.5)

In the preseason, Russell Wilson let be known he wouldn’t mind being traded to the Bears. Chicago liked the idea well enough to draft a Russell Wilson type guy in the first round in Justin Fields. While the Bears are probably off the trade list now, this season is likely the RW3 farewell tour with Seattle. After a dud against the Rams last week, I think Russ cooks up something good at his home kitchen. Seahawks 34, Bears 16

PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-8.5, O/U: 45)

The Steelers are still very much alive for the playoffs, but are putting their necks in the guillotine at Arrowhead, facing a Kansas City team that’s rediscovered what’s worked for them the last three seasons. They’re the Super Bowl favorites for a reason. While they’ll still be mathematically alive with a loss, I think Ben Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh’s quest for one more playoff run ends here. Chiefs 27, Steelers 20

DENVER BRONCOS AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (pk, O/U: 42)

Teddy Bridgewater is likely out, so it’s the Drew Lock show for Denver at least this week. Las Vegas hasn’t managed back to back wins since before Halloween and still might not do it here. They barely knocked off the Cleveland Browns a week ago and they started a guy that was making Subway sandwiches the day before at quarterback. I’m going with the home team, but I don’t like it. Raiders 20, Broncos 17

Last Week

Straight up: 9-7

Against the spread: 9-7

Season

Straight up: 133-90-1

Against the spread: 115-109

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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