GAME OF THROWERS: DESHAUN WATSON

BY ADAM GREENE

As of Thursday morning it became official. All the speculation, the column inches and Twitter posts were tossed aside as quarterback Deshaun Watson let it be publicly known that he wished to consciously uncouple from the Houston Texans.

The addition of new head coach David Culley did not change that. And I know what you’re thinking, “Why in the world wouldn’t Watson be dissuaded by the hiring of Culley, the former Baltimore Ravens passing game coordinator and architect of the No. 32 ranked aerial offense in all of the NFL?”

You’re telling me a Top Five NFL quarterback doesn’t want to play for a man who is famous for running the worst passing attack in the league? This was a passing offense that put up nearly 200 fewer yards than the New York Jets. There are only 32 NFL teams for God’s sake. You can, literally, not do any worse than Culley and the Ravens did.

So Watson, who was already out the door, made it clear that there was no way they were getting him back inside it.

Watson entered this season as one of the league’s best quarterbacks. He ended it as historically one of the best QBs to not make the postseason. He completed a career high 70.2 percent of his passes for an NFL-leading 4,823 yards, 33 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. He added 444 yards on the ground and three rushing TDs.

So to answer which teams would be interested in acquiring Watson via trade,? That would be pretty much all of them outside of maybe 10 franchises set with their signal callers or with young guys they’re high on. That certainly doesn’t mean that Watson wouldn’t be an upgrade on pretty much every team outside of the Kansas City Chiefs, but if you’re the Buffalo Bills, Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Chargers, you feel good where you’re at.

In fact, that’s an easier list to compile. The teams that wouldn’t be in the market for Deshaun Watson;

Kansas City Chiefs

Buffalo Bills

Cincinnati Bengals

Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville Jaguars

Los Angeles Chargers

Dallas Cowboys

Green Bay Packers

Seattle Seahawks

Arizona Cardinals

That’s it. Exactly 10.

Everybody else would at least pick up the phone. And before you argue about Lamar Jackson with the Ravens or Tom Brady with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, I’m just saying no one is pushing that call to voicemail when your phone vibrates next to their cob salad at lunch if you see Houston’s name pop up.

There’s a view out there that the Texans could ask for pretty much whatever they want in exchange for Watson and that’s just not the case. Watson has a “no-trade” clause in his contract, meaning he doesn’t have to play for Houston, but he also doesn’t have to let them trade him to just anybody. He controls where he wants to go. And because of that, his seemingly astronomical price drops to a much more manageable king’s ransom.

At the same time, the Texans do have some interests of their own. So while there are rumors that Watson would be fine with a deal to the New York Jets or Miami Dolphins, I don’t see any way Houston lets him remain in the AFC if they can avoid it.

So where is Watson likely to end up next season?

Here’s what must be factored in;

1. The Texans will need a QB

2. They want good compensation, even if they can’t get Watson’s true value because of his no trade clause.

3. They have to get him out of the AFC if they can

4. Watson has to want to play for the new team.

Looking at that criteria, the obvious Top Four destinations for Watson are;

1. San Francisco 49ers (+800)

2. Los Angeles Rams (+1000)

3. Miami Dolphins (N/A)

4. New York Jets (+200)

So let’s make the case for each team.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Trade: Jimmy Garoppolo, 2021 first round pick (No. 12), 2021 second round pick (No. 44), 2022 first round pick

The 49ers were a Super Bowl team with Garoppolo at quarterback and would have been in the mix in 2020 if not for a downright karmic attack of injuries. Putting Watson on this team would immediately make them the NFC favorite by a solid margin.

In return, the Texans get a starting QB in Garoppolo, though there are some question marks there, along with a pick high enough to grab a quarterback in April’s draft like a Zach Wilson, Mac Jones or Trey Lance if they want. At least one (if not all three) will be there. They get a high second rounder for a skill player and a first rounder next season, which will likely be VERY LOW. Like, you know, No. 31 or 32.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Trade: Jared Goff, 2021 second round pick (No. 57), 2021 third round pick (No. 88), 2022 first round pick, 2022 third round pick

First off, we need to get this out of the way. The Rams can work a trade for Goff if they want, regardless of his contract. General manager Les Snead has said as much.

Like the 49ers, if you put Watson on this Rams team, they’re the instant Super Bowl favorites. They also happen to have all their other star players under long term contracts so this move could be the beginning of a dynasty. Los Angeles has drafted so well in later rounds (as well as worked free agency) that they remain one of the youngest roster in the league. They can use their high picks to trade for other pieces and aren’t afraid to do it. It’s who they are.

In return, the Texans get Goff who, let’s not mince words, would be at worst the No. 2 prospect coming out in this year’s draft behind Trevor Lawrence. Goff is second in the league since 2017 in QB wins, has not posted a losing season at QB in that same time frame, took his team to a Super Bowl and put together some of his best games of the season with a broken thumb in the playoffs. His problems have all been in his brain, with silly decisions and ball security. This isn’t a Carson Wentz drop off. His 67.0 completion percentage this year was a career high. Los Angeles would also be stuck with the parts of Goff’s contract that make it rough. If the Texans can fix him, or plug him into an offense that works better with his skills, he costs them about $26 million a year. That’s a lower cap hit than Kirk Cousins has with the Vikings.

Again, the first rounder in 2021 would be low (No. 31-32 ish), but the other picks would all conceivably land starters in rounds 1-3.

MIAMI DOLPHINS

Trade: Tua Tagovailoa, 2021 first round pick (No. 3), 2021 first round pick (No. 23) or 2022 first round pick

The reason you make this trade if you’re Houston is that you think Tagovailoa is a franchise QB and you use those other two first round picks to build up the rest of your roster. Specifically, you need a pass rusher to replace J.J. Watt who has also reportedly asked for a trade.

The compensation is high for Miami, a starting QB (maybe), the No. 3 pick (which should belong to the Texans anyway) and another first rounder, either this year or next depending on how you roll the dice. While Watson would instantly put the Rams or 49ers in the Super Bowl conversation, he wouldn’t with the Dolphins. In fact, there’s a chance they might post a similar win total with the holes they have in their roster and a significantly tougher schedule in 2021.

Why aren’t the Dolphins higher? Because Tagovailoa is still an unknown. You’ve seen your bottom level from Goff and Garoppolo by now and know what you have to work with and work on. They’ve both taken their franchises to Super Bowls. Tagovailoa is still a mystery and it doesn’t help he got benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick more than once.

As for Houston, they’d be putting Watson on a good AFC team, a winning squad, that they’ll likely have to play at least once a season and maybe twice if both teams make the playoffs. If you’re the Texans, you want to avoid this.

NEW YORK JETS

Trade: 2021 first round pick (No. 2), 2022 first round pick, 2023 first round pick

While the Jets do have a second first rounder this season (No. 27 from the Seahawks), the Texans wouldn’t want that. It’s too low and, with the holes in New York’s roster, a better bet would be to take their next two in the ensuing years.

The Jets get Watson and that’s it, with a ton of roster problems on both sides of the ball. Houston gets Justin Fields at No. 2 (or whoever they like, but it should be Fields), probably an extra Top 10 pick in 2022 and a Top 15 pick in 2023.

And that’s really the biggest obstacle to this deal happening. New Jets head coach Robert Saleh and GM Joe Douglas have the worst roster in the league. Adding Watson makes them better, but it’s not how they’re going to build this team. They really need these picks because this roster, from top to bottom, is garbage. Watson may be a Ferrari engine, but he can’t do much in a 1979 Sears lawnmower. Adding Watson makes a 2-14 squad an 8-8 unit at best.

For the Texans, though, if Salah and Watson are able to turn the Jets around quick, you’re back to the same issues with Miami. You’re playing Watson every year. Maybe twice. And if he takes one of the AFC teams to the Super Bowl and wins it before Houston does? Heads would rightly roll.

ANY SURPRISES?

There could always be a shocker. Say new Atlanta Falcons head coach Arthur Smith wants to package picks and Matt Ryan? Houston takes that deal. If the Dallas Cowboys want to offer Dak Prescott for Watson with a pick, you pull the trigger on that too. The Jacksonville Jaguars offer you No. 1 overall and next year’s first rounder? You take that.  But I don’t think any of those are realistically happening.

The Indianapolis Colts, the Denver Broncos, Carolina Panthers and the Chicago Bears would all be possibilities, but simply have nothing to offer in picks or in talent.

I’m sure the New Orleans Saints and Sean Payton would love to get their hands on Watson, but in what universe could they make it happen? Payton is the only head coach in the league that likes Tayson Hill. Houston would rightly laugh him off the phone call.

The Lions have the player (Matthew Stafford) and pick (No. 7 overall) to make a deal, but Watson vetoes that trade and rightly so. He ain’t playing in Detroit.

No one is going to want anything to do with Carson Wentz in his current state, so the Philadelphia Eagles are out (and Watson would put the kibosh on that trade too). Watson would also bust up any trade attempt to the Washington Football Team even if they had the compensation (and they don’t).

Are you going to trade for Kirk Cousins and picks with the Minnesota Vikings if you could have Goff or Garoppolo and picks from the Rams or 49ers? Me neither.

And if you’re talking Derek Carr and picks from the Las Vegas Raiders, why wouldn’t you just pull the trigger on a deal with the Dolphins or Jets instead?

I feel like the only way the Texans get a good return and Watson OKs the deal is with one of the four teams I listed. My guess is we’ll find out not too long after the Super Bowl where he suits up.

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