How Bad Are The Packers As Road Underdogs?

The final Monday night game of 2019 could also be one of the most consequential. The 11-3 Packers and 10-4 Vikings are both vying for the NFC North championship as well as playoff seeding. Green Bay could still be the NFC’s top seed if things go their way, and whichever team comes in second place would much prefer to be the fifth seed. Any playoff team would rather visit the fourth-seeded NFC East Champion than whichever team picks up the third seed.

The Packers may not have many decisive wins, but they all count the same. A win tonight would return the division title to Green Bay after a two-year hiatus.

Minnesota has some running back issues, as both Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison are expected to sit. That would leave Mike Boone and Ameer Abdullah to handle most of the carries. Serviceable as they may be, they don’t compare to Cook. How Minnesota’s offense will look is anyone’s guess.

If you’re looking to make your own educated guesses for tonight’s matchup, here are some trends to inform your betting decisions.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (+5) @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

The Vikings are 4-2 ATS as home favorites. They’re 5-1 ATS when their opponent is playing on equal rest but 3-6 ATS after a win. The Vikings were favored by five or more against Green Bay twice since 2009 and covered in both games.

The Packers are 3-1 ATS in division games and 4-2 ATS on the road. They’ve covered in seven of their last 10 trips to Minnesota as underdogs. They’re 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games in the NFC North. They’ve failed to cover in their last four games as road underdogs in December.

TOTAL: 47

The Vikings have gone over in five of their last six. Only one of their last 10 home division games has gone under. Three of their four division games this season went under.

The Packers have gone under in four of their last five. All four of their division games have gone under. 

MINNESOTA MONEY LINE: -220
GREEN BAY MONEY LINE: +190

The Vikings have won seven of their last ten home games against the NFC North. They’ve won eight of their last 10 as home favorites in December. They are undefeated at home and 9-2 as favorites. Kirk Cousins is 0-8 on Monday night.

The Packers are 1-9 in their last 10 games as road underdogs of five or more. They’ve won three of their last 10 as road underdogs in December. They’re 4-0 against the NFC North this season. Aaron Rodgers has won five straight Monday night games.

PROPS

In four career games against the Packers, Kirk Cousins has 11 touchdowns and three interceptions.

Stefon Diggs was held under 80 yards in five of six Monday night appearances. He hasn’t scored in his last three. He has scored against the Packers in six consecutive games.

Kyle Rudolph has a touchdown in three of his last four Monday night games. 

Aaron Rodgers has at least two touchdown passes in five straight Monday night games. He went over 300 yards in four of those games.

In three Monday night appearances, Aaron Jones has never rushed for more than 47 yards. He has a touchdown in two straight games against Minnesota.

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