KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 2022 WIN PREDICTION

BY ADAM GREENE

It was an odd season for the Kansas City Chiefs coming off their Super Bowl loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The hangover hit them early with a bad 2-3 start that saw them lose to teams that were real contenders, the Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills.

The fact that they got back on the winning track against the Washington Commanders really didn’t help anything because they were dominated by the Tennessee Titans the following week, 27-3.

Kansas City headed into November 3-4 and looked, in every way, like a team that would miss the playoffs.

This was in spite of all the work they did in the offseason to improve their offensive line. Patrick Mahomes was turning the ball over too much and the defense was a sieve. This usually is a time when a team needs to look at some wholesale changes, but to Andy Reid’s credit, he stuck with his coaches and they turned it around.

Kansas City finished the year 9-1, losing only to the eventual AFC Champion Cincinnati Bengals 34-31 in Cincy.

Once the playoffs started, the Chiefs immediately became the favorites, knocking off the Pittsburgh Steelers with ease in the Wild Card round, 42-21, before outlasting the Bills 42-36 in overtime in what have been one of the greatest playoff games in NFL history.

Overtime wasn’t their friend in the AFC Championship. KC blew a 21-3 lead to fall 27-24 to the Bengals and were forced, for the first time in three seasons, to watch the Super Bowl on their La-Z-Boys.

Mahomes, to no one’s surprise, made the Pro Bowl again. He completed 66.3 percent of his passes for 4,839 yards, 37 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Darrel Williams and Clyde Edwards-Helaire split the carries at running back. Williams finished with 558 yards and six touchdowns with 452 receiving yards and two receiving TDs. CEH rushed for 517 yards, four scores and caught 129 yards worth of passes for two touchdowns.

Tyreek Hill hauled in 111 passes for 1,239 yards and nine touchdowns. Travis Kelce caught 92 balls for 1,125 yards and nine TDs. Mecole Hardman, the only WR with significant playing time still on the team, had 59 catches for 693 yards and two touchdowns.

In spite of their early season struggles, Kansas City’s defense finished No. 8 in points allowed, but at No. 27 in yards allowed. Chris Jones led the team with nine sacks. No one else even hit five, with Frank Clark notching a disappointing 4.5 sack campaign.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Last season: 12-5

Odds: Over 10.5 wins (-140), Under 10.5 wins (+110)

2022 NFL Draft: Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington (Round 1), George Karlaftis, Edge, Purdue (Round 1), Skyy Moore, WR, Western Michigan (Round 2), Bryan Cook, Safety, Cincinnati (Round 2), Leo Chenal, LB, Wisconsin (Round 3), Joshua Williams, CB, Fayetteville, State (Round 4), Darian Kinnard, OG, Kentucky (Round 5), Jaylen Watson, CB, Washington State (Round 7), Isah Pacheco, RB, Rutgers (Round 7), Nazeeh Johnson, CB, Marshall (Round 7)

2022 Additions: Lonnie Johnson, CB (trade), Justin Reid, Safety (free agent), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (free agent), JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR (free agent), Carlos Dunlap, Edge (free agent), Jermain Carter, ILB (free agent), Ronald Jones, II (free agent), Taylor Stallworth, DT (free agent), Deon Bush, Safety (free agent), Geron Christian, OT (free agent), Danny Shelton, DT (free agent), Azur Kamara, LB (free agent), 

Projected Starters

Offense

QB: Patrick Mahomes

RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire

WR: JuJu Smith-Schuster

WR: Marquez Valdes-Scantling

WR: Mecole Hardman

TE: Travis Kelce

FB: Michael Burton

LT: Orlando Brown, Jr.

LG: Joe Thuney

C: Creed Humphrey

RG: Trey Smith

RT: Andrew Wylie

Defense

LDE: Mike Danna

LDT: Derrick Nnadi

RDT: Chris Jones

RDE: Frank Clark

WLB: Nick Bolton

MLB: Willie Gay

SLB: Elijah Lee

CB: Trent McDuffie

CB: L’Jarius Sneed

SS: Justin Reid

FS: Juan Thornhill

Special Teams

PK: Harrison Butker

P: Tommy Townsend

PR: Mecole Hardman

KR: Isiah Pacheco

PREVIEW

The Chiefs opened their offseason in the dumbest possible way — trading away their best wide receiver, Tyreek Hill. Hill wanted to be paid what he was worth and Kansas City, whose offense had benefited from Hill’s speed and receiving ability, decided they didn’t want to do that. The Green Bay Packers made the same stupid call with Devante Adams and both can expect similar results.

I don’t expect the wheels to fall off just because the Cheetah is off the roster, but the idea that they’ll replace his production with JuJu Smith-Schuster or rookie Skyy Moore is ridiculous on its face. The Chiefs were beaten in two tries by the Cincinnati Bengals last year, including losing at home in the AFC Championship. They are a worse team coming into this season.

Still, Mahomes is the gold standard of quarterbacking until his family off the field finally screws it up. As long as he’s under center, the Chiefs have a shot against anybody.

Their biggest problem this year is one of the toughest schedules in the league. KC’s opening eight games are all against 2021 playoff teams or teams that finished the year with a winning record. It gets a little easier in the back half, but that’s when they’ll play both of last year’s Super Bowl teams, the Los Angeles Rams on Nov. 27 and the Bengals the very next week.

Rolling through, I could realistically see the Chiefs being underwater again in November before surging over December and early January. Still, I’ve got them 5-2 heading into the bye and then 7-3 when they travel to the Chargers to take what could be four consecutive losses that will have Nick Wright ready to shave his head.

I’m tempted to put them at 10 wins, but they’ll have solid momentum over the last month with rematches against the Broncos and Raiders and cupcakes at the Houston Texans and hosting the Seattle Seahawks.

Final record prediction: 11-6

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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