Kyle Shanahan’s Not Blowing This One

BY ADAM GREENE

If you were so inclined, there are some sports books that are offering you the chance to bet, with your hard-earned cash, that Kyle Shanahan will once again blow a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl.

It pays off 100-1, which seems low to me, considering the real mathematical odds it would take for the San Francisco 49ers, and their run-first offense, to build that kind of lead to begin with without Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs responding. The Chiefs already had all the bad luck they were due in this playoff season by getting down 24-0 to the Houston Texans and we all know how that turned out.

Shanahan, unquestionably, should take a huge heaping helping of the blame for the Atlanta Falcons’ historic collapse in Super Bowl LI. The math was simple, but it’s a mistake many head coaches and playcallers have made before.

The Falcons weren’t going to beat that New England Patriots team 28-3 or anything to 3. New England was going to get into the end zone and they did, scoring a TD to make the game 28-9 near the end of the third quarter. The Patriots added a field goal on their next possession to put the score at 28-12 and a sack-fumble gave New England new life midway through the fourth. They scored a TD to make it 28-20 and it was time to sweat.

Only, the Falcons still held all the cards. There was 5:56 left in the game and a score, any score for Atlanta, would realistically and mathematically put the game out of reach. The smart move here, as a playcaller, would be to play it like an overtime possession. Go for the field goal and if the Falcons had done that, Shanahan, Matt Ryan and Dan Quinn would all have a fat ring on their finger.

But Shanahan didn’t. He got the ball down to the Pats’ 22 and, again, if this was OT, you run it three times, eat clock, and kick the field goal. But Shanahan was frustrated. He was angry at offensive mistakes, miscues and the fact that he couldn’t completely blow out Bill Belichick and Tom Brady in the Super Bowl. So he called a pass and got a holding call on Jake Matthews.

You can argue that it was Matthew’s fault, getting called for the hold, but if he hadn’t held then Ryan would have probably been sacked. And the last time that happened Ryan coughed it up. The Patriots pass rush was feeling it and consistently beating the Falcons O-line. On the play to get Atlanta to the 22, the insane Julio Jones catch, Ryan had to escape the pocket and two New England rushers in the process to make the throw.

Be smart. Run three times. Kick the field goal. Get your ring.

Shanahan didn’t do it and we all know what happened next.

He’s learned from that mistake. Kyle Shanahan is a good coach and, if put in that position against Andy Reid and Patrick Mohomes Sunday, you better believe he’s not dropping Jimmy Garoppolo back to pass.

Does that mean I think the 49ers are going to win? You’ll have to come back for the Friday Afternoon Quarterback to find out. Here’s what I do think; if San Francisco does lose, it won’t be a choke job and sure as hell won’t be because Kyle Shanahan surrendered a 28-3 lead.

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