Mahomes Favored To Be Super Bowl MVP

The NFL’s ultimate showcase is this upcoming Sunday, February 2, in Miami. The NFC champion San Francisco 49ers face the AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs. The 49ers got to the big game by using their running game and defense to crush the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game, while the Chiefs made it by relying on their explosive offense to storm past the Tennessee Titans in the AFC Championship Game. Now we have the ultimate showdown. While there are lots of picks and previews on the game, let’s take a look at the Super Bowl MVP prop odds, which clearly favor the two quarterbacks on each team.

PATRICK MAHOMES
SUPER BOWL MVP ODDS: +125

It is true that if the Kansas City Chiefs win the game, Patrick Mahomes will almost certainly be the Most Valuable Player of Super Bowl LIV. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that Mahomes is in fact the player most likely to win the MVP award. Mahomes is the player who has the best chance of winning the award if his team wins. If you think the 49ers are likely to beat the Chiefs, you shouldn’t view Mahomes as the player most likely to win the award. He is merely the name which stands out more than the rest. Explaining Mahomes as an MVP possibility makes sense only when also discussing the possibilities for other players, including and especially those on the 49ers.

JIMMY GAROPPOLO
SUPER BOWL MVP ODDS: +300

The 49ers’ quarterback certainly has a realistic chance of being the game MVP for Super Bowl LIV, but he is not the first choice because he barely threw any passes in the NFC Championship Game. He was able to hand the ball off to Raheem Mostert and trust his offensive line to do the heavy lifting. He tossed just eight passes while Mostert compiled over 200 yards of rushing. San Francisco hammered Green Bay on the ground all day long, making Garoppolo’s job very easy.

If this is the case again in the Super Bowl, Mostert would likely get the MVP in the event of a 49er win. This matchup, though, might be different from the Green Bay game. If Kansas City scores 30 or more points, chances are Garoppolo will have to make clutch throws in big situations. If the Chiefs score only 20 points, San Francisco might be able to win a game with a score of 31-20 in which Garoppolo doesn’t have to do much work. However, a 35-30 or 38-35 49er victory would likely involve several big passing plays from Jimmy G, which would enable him to become the MVP.

GEORGE KITTLE
SUPER BOWL MVP ODDS: +1000

It is realistic to view Raheem Mostert as an MVP choice for the Niners if Garoppolo isn’t the guy, but the Chiefs did a decent job of limiting Tennessee running back Derrick Henry in the AFC title game. The 49ers, if they can’t completely bulldoze the Chiefs on the ground, will have to go to the air, and it is clear that George Kittle has been the best and most important pass catcher for the 49ers all season long. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ best player in the entire NFL. Deebo Samuel has been important as well, but Kittle has made the biggest plays, including and especially his fourth-down conversion which helped defeat the New Orleans Saints in the regular season. That win made the difference between San Francisco playing a wild card game and getting the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Kittle is the best non-Garoppolo choice for the 49ers.

TRAVIS KELCE
SUPER BOWL MVP ODDS: +1600

The playmaking of Mahomes speaks for itself, but let’s imagine a scenario in which Mahomes doesn’t run for first downs and is kept inside the pocket, and Travis Kelce keeps beating his man downfield for huge plays and touchdowns. If that happens, Kelce could be viewed as the player who made everything happen for the Chiefs.

Keep in mind that for all of the weapons the Chiefs have, Kelce was their only 1000-yard receiver with 1,229 receiving yards, leading the team with 76.9 receiving yards per game.

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