New Orleans Saints Host Defending Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles are nothing if not resilient. For most of the season, they looked to be yet another in a long line of Super Bowl champions that failed to make the playoffs the following year. To their credit, however, they scrapped their way into the postseason even without their starting quarterback Carson Wentz. Nick Foles has proven to be a capable replacement and his reputation for coming up big in ‘money’ situations was only enhanced after the Eagles upset the Chicago Bears last week to earn this date against New Orleans in the NFC Divisional Round.

The Eagles now face an even tougher challenge in the form of the New Orleans Saints. Can the Eagles score enough points to keep up with the most potent offense in the National Football League? If not, can a banged up defense do enough to keep the game close? In both cases, the answer is ‘it’s doubtful’. For some perspective we can go back to Week 11 when New Orleans absolutely obliterated both the Eagles and the NFL pointspread when they beat Philadelphia 48-7 as -7 point home favorites. This was not only the worst loss by the Eagles this season it represented the worst loss ever by a defending Super Bowl champion. Has the matchup dynamic changed in a matter of weeks? One thing is for certain—Philadelphia will start a different quarterback. Carson Wentz started in Week 11 and was intercepted 3 times. You can make a case that Nick Foles will do a better job taking care of the football but that’s a stretch.

A more salient question—has anything changed from Week 11 in terms of the matchup between Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense and the Eagles’ secondary? Brees threw for 363 yards and four touchdown passes in the Saints’ regular season rout of the Eagles and it doesn’t look like anything has changed. Philadelphia’s pass coverage team is at best young and inexperience but a bigger problem now is that injuries have taken a serious toll on the entire Eagles’ defense. Cornerback Jalen Mills is on IR, CB Ronald Darby is out for the season, safety Rodney McLeod is on IR, cornerback Elie Bouka is on IR and cornerback Sidney Jones is listed as ‘questionable’ and that’s just the injuries in the secondary. The situation would be dire enough if the only challenge was to stop Brees but the Saints circa 2019 have a very balanced attack with a dangerous rushing game featuring Alvin Karma (18 TDs this season) and Mark Ingram.

There’s never been any question about the ability of the Saints’ offense to put points on the board but the team’s defense has improved this season. They’ll never be mistaken for the 1985 Chicago Bears or the Pittsburgh ‘Steel Curtain’ but they’re now good enough to keep opponents honest while the offense lights up the scoreboard. The Saints’ defense finished the regular season #14 in total defense and scoring defense and was particularly effective against the run ranking #2 in the league. Home field advantage is always nice to have but it looks to be particularly important in this matchup. The Mercedes-Benz Superdome turf is a perfect speedy track for the Saints offense and further tilts the matchup in New Orleans’ favor. Philadelphia is on a horrible run playing on turf going 1-2 SU/ATS this year and 3-8 SU/2-9 ATS over the last three seasons.

Philadelphia showed a lot of grit and determination making the playoffs despite a season where little went right. Credit to the character of the team and head coach Doug Pederson for that. Hard to see any other outcome here than a big Saints’ victory so the Eagles’ run likely ends here. Very little has changed since the Week 11 matchup and although Foles deserves props for his big game performances it’s very unlikely that he can match Brees and the high octane Saints’ offense. New Orleans rolls.

BET NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -8 OVER PHILADELPHIA EAGLES