NFL Betting: 2021 MVP Race After Week 1

After one week of play in the 2021 NFL season, how has the MVP race changed? In one obvious way, the dynamics of this competition are already very different compared to preseason projections. Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers played a horrible game in a 38-3 loss to the New Orleans Saints. Rodgers lost substantial ground in one week. He can certainly compensate for it with a brilliant remainder of the regular season, but he certainly has a high bar to clear at this point. He has very little margin for error after a game that bad versus New Orleans, on a day when the Saints played their first regular-season game after the retirement of Drew Brees.

Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens committed crucial turnovers in a loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, so he took a huge hit in an attempt to win a second MVP award in three seasons (having won in 2019). Let’s look at the four very early leaders in the race, knowing that a lot of plot twists await in a 17-game season.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

The leader after one week has to be Mahomes. The best quarterback in football lead a rally from a 12-point deficit against the Cleveland Browns. The Chiefs continued their pattern from 2020: They didn’t dominate, but they made all the plays they needed to make in crunch time. Mahomes’ ability to pull close wins out of the fire with great regularity marks him as the toughest quarterback to beat in the NFL. He did lose the Super Bowl, but keep in mind he lost only one game before the Super Bowl last season. Kansas City went 16-1 with Mahomes playing. The Chiefs lost a second game before the Super Bowl when Mahomes took Week 17 off against the Chargers. Mahomes is the early favorite and will need to slump at some point for others to pass him.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

The relocated quarterback, free from the misery of the Detroit Lions, helped the Rams put up 34 points in Week 1 against the Chicago Bears. Stafford has the best offensive line he has ever played with in his career. He has the best receivers he has ever played with in his career. He has the best coaching he has ever received in his career. He has the best defense he has ever played with in his career. So many components of Stafford’s situation are ideal. He is set up to succeed this season. If he can continue to perform the way he did in Week 1, Stafford will make a run at the league MVP award. The Rams must be a top-two seed in the NFC playoffs in order for Stafford to have an especially strong chance, however. If the San Francisco 49ers beat the Rams in the NFC West Division race, Stafford’s MVP chances will be crushed, end of discussion.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

The best team performance of Week 1 went to the Arizona Cardinals, who blasted the Tennessee Titans on the road. Kyler Murray was a big part of the Cardinals’ explosion, making insanely athletic plays with his legs and his arm. One of his touchdown passes was thrown against his body. The ball curved in mid-flight and hit a receiver in the back of the end zone for one of the more acrobatic touchdowns of the opening weekend of the NFL season. If Murray can lead the Cardinals to the NFC West title against the Rams, 49ers, and the Seattle Seahawks this season, his MVP chances go way up. If Murray can at least make the playoffs and win at least 11 games with the Cardinals, he would remain in the MVP conversation, given the struggles of the Cardinals franchise in recent NFL seasons.

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The MVP of the NFL has to win big games for his team and be at the heart of the Super Bowl conversation. This definitely applies to Brady, who outdueled Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys on opening night. Brady is aging as gracefully as any NFL player who has ever played the game. He actually struggled early in his 2020 season with the Buccaneers but got off to a great start in 2021 against the Cowboys. The Dallas defense is not that good, which is why Brady rates a notch below Mahomes and Murray in particular, but if Brady can play like this throughout the whole season, and the Bucs get a top-two seed in the NFC, Brady certainly has a very realistic chance of walking away with this award. Stafford isn’t used to normally being in the MVP conversation. Neither is Murray. Mahomes is a heavy hitter and very likely the main threat to Brady (and conversely, Brady is the main obstacle for Mahomes). The two quarterbacks who met in the most recent Super Bowl, and who represent the best of their respective generations, could be on a collision course to finish 1 and 2 in the NFL MVP balloting at the end of the season.

Other prominent names had big Week 1 games: Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks turned in a strong showing. Derek Carr of the Raiders had a huge win on Monday Night Football against the Baltimore Ravens and Lamar Jackson. Dak Prescott lost to Brady but put up huge numbers and looked extremely sharp in coming back from his 2020 injury. Baker Mayfield played a solid game against the Chiefs but didn’t get the win over Mahomes, much as Dak Prescott played well against Brady but lacked the end result.

The names who did not step up in Week 1: Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins, Mac Jones of the New England Patriots. Justin Herbert of the Chargers won, but his team scored just 20 points against Washington. Herbert needs to beat Dak Prescott and the Cowboys on Sunday in Week 2.

Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons had a disastrous opener against the Philadelphia Eagles. Former teammate Julio Jones had a miserable day for the Tennessee Titans against the Cardinals. Derrick Henry of the Titans had a bad day as well. They both need to bounce back against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks in Week 2.

Josh Allen had a bad day for the Buffalo Bills against the Pittsburgh Steelers. He faces a must-win game against the Dolphins in Week 2 if he really wants to be in the top tier of MVP candidates. It is similar for Lamar Jackson against Mahomes and the Chiefs in Week 2 on Sunday Night Football.