NFL Betting Picks: Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans

Houston is the hottest team in the AFC having won eight straight games. The Texans might not be the hottest team in the league (that would be the New Orleans Saints, winners of ten straight) but they’re in complete control of the AFC South at 8-3. The Cleveland Browns have been the NFL’s poster child for futility in recent years but there are some signs of life despite a 4-6-1 record. Baker Mayfield is expected to be the ‘quarterback of the future’ and Cleveland should be able to attract a good head coach in the off season based on his potential alone. Then again, this year has been nothing short of bizarre due to the firing of former head coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley. The two men were engaged in a battle of wills over ‘artistic differences’ concerning the development of generation QB Mayfield. Instead of taking sides in the feud, Cleveland ownership did the smart thing and sent them both packing.

Perhaps the craziest part of the Cleveland coaching situation is that the team has performed markedly better since Jackson and Haley were given their walking papers. Haley’s replacement, Freddie Kitchens, has received rave reviews from NFL cognoscenti with some going so far as to calling him the Brown’s ‘MVP’. There’s been plenty of rumors about who will take over as head coach following the season with Bruce Arians, Mike McCarthy and Josh McDaniels’ names coming up frequently. What is obvious is that a) the Browns will end up with a first rate coach and b) Kitchens has definitely earned the right to stay on as offensive coordinator. The mood of the team has been transformed since Jackson and Haley’s ouster and the Browns have even been able to win on the road—they beat the Cincinnati Bengals last weekend to end their ridiculous 25 game road losing streak.

The Texans enter this game on a 4-1 run against the spread but that’s very misleading. Houston has been a very poor pointspread team over the past couple of years and even with their recent performance they’re on a 5-11 run against the spread overall. They’ve failed to cover in 5 of their last 6 games at NRG Stadium, are on a 3-11 ATS run off a division game and 1-6 ATS run off a divisional win. They’ve also covered only once in their last nine December games and are on a 3-6 ATS run against losing teams in the second half of the season.

Houston is a very good team but they’re somewhat overvalued due to their recent success and particularly on their current ATS run. They enter this game off a short week off a Monday Night win and with a much more challenging game against the resurgent Indianapolis Colts on deck. In a classic ‘sandwich game’ situation we’ll take the road team plus the points.

BET CLEVELAND BROWNS +6 OVER HOUSTON TEXANS