NFL Betting Picks: Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

It’s almost impossible to believe that last year’s Jacksonville Jaguars were just one big play away from upsetting the New England Patriots and making the Super Bowl. Instead, New England overcame a 10 point fourth quarter deficit to reach the Super Bowl where they would ultimately lose to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Jaguars’ defense was the star last season and held the Patriots to 10 first half points and 0 third quarter points before they collapsed in the final fifteen minutes. As we head into the home stretch of the 2018 regular season that seems like a different world.

Jacksonville hit rock bottom last weekend as they lost 24-21 to the lowly Buffalo Bills. That dropped the Bills to 3-8 and even that dismal record doesn’t accurately convey how bad it was. It was their seventh consecutive defeat and it came to a team that observers have suggested might be even worse than the Jaguars. The Bills have the #31 scoring offense in the NFL putting up a miserable 14.6 points per game. They’re also #31 in total offense and one of only two teams in the league averaging less than 300 yards per game (273.9). Want to guess where the Bills rank in passing yards per game? If you said #31 give yourself a star. They do have the #17 rushing attack in the league, not that this means much.

The loss to Buffalo was more than just symbolic—it guaranteed that Jacksonville would finish with a non-winning season for the 10^th time in the past 11 years. And although head coach Doug Marrone might be ‘playing for his job’ down the stretch if that meant anything to his team they wouldn’t be in this situation. Marrone just benched starting quarterback Blake Bortles and fired offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. GM Tom Coughlin, who has spent most of the year dodging the less than viscous Jacksonville media, said that the changes were made because “you’re going to try something.” Not a phrase that instills his players, coaches and Jags fans with a ton of confidence.

It’s definitely tough to lay more than a field goal on the road with a .500 Indianapolis team but unlike the Jags the Colts are heading in the right direction having won five straight. More importantly, quarterback Andrew Luck has finally regained elite status and enters with career highs in completion rate (68.4%) and passer rating (102.7%). He’s one of only two quarterbacks in the league with more than 30 TD passes this season. The biggest improvement, however, might be on the other side of the ball where rookie linebacker Darius Leonard has been an absolute monster.

Jacksonville might be a play if they had shown any spirit at all during their seven game losing streak but that has not been the case. In fact, they’ve failed to cover any of those seven games going 0-5-2 against the number. The Colts are going to have a fight on their hands to make the playoffs but they should get a convincing win in the books against the hapless Jaguars.

BET INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -4 OVER JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS