NFL: Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets

By BetOnline October 11, 2019

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The Dallas Cowboys’ 3-0 start gave us the impression that a very good team was moving to the top tier of the NFL. Losses in back-to-back weeks have dropped back down and raised questions as to whether they’re still the Cowboys of old or whether Dak Prescott, Kellen Moore and Jason Garrett have, in fact, made progress. It’s hard to believe but this week’s game is a must-win for the Cowboys as a loss here might signal that it’s time for a change on the sidelines, which is hard to believe given where this team was two weeks ago.

DALLAS COWBOYS AT NEW YORK JETS
NFL ODDS: COWBOYS -7
NFL TOTAL: 44.5

WHY THE COWBOYS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Cowboys’ best chance to cover the spread is very simple: Ezekiel Elliott. For all of the hoopla of how Kellen Moore is a genius and how Dak Prescott has taken the next step, this team is still best suited by running the ball, controlling the clock and making throws off of play-action. Zeke has just 97 rushing yards in the last two games after averaging 96.3 in the first three games and remember, he didn’t play a lot in the opener.

While it’s true that the Jets will get Sam Darnold back this week, their defense is still a mess. Their top defender, C.J. Mosely, is still out and this team has just six sacks on the year (29th in the NFL). This sets up as a great matchup for the Cowboys offense after facing two solid defenses the last two weeks.

Although Darnold is back, let’s not act like he’s the be-all, end-all. He completed 28 passes in Week 1 for just 175 yards, which is 6.25 yards per completion. He might be a bit rusty and even if he’s on his game, it’s not as if this offense is loaded with weapons.

The Jets have averaged 9.75 points per game, but their offense has scored roughly half of that. The Jets are the only team in the NFL which has scored more non-offensive touchdowns than actual offensive touchdowns. Darnold’s return will help but it’s not going to fix an offense which is that bad. This is a layup for the Cowboys defense, which has allowed just 18 points per game.

WHY THE JETS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The return of Darnold can restore the balance to this team. Remember, last time we saw him, the Jets were up 16-0 on the Buffalo Bills. Even though they ended up losing that game, the Bills are 4-1, so that might give us an idea of how good the Jets could be.

Without Darnold, the Jets offense couldn’t move the ball and they kept hanging their defense out to dry. The Jets are dead-last with 11.2 first downs per game, so it’s understandable that they’ve been getting blown out. If Darnold can simply move the chains a few more times, it will help keep the team in those games.

All of the pressure here is on Dallas as nothing is expected of the Jets in this game. The longer they hang around in this game, the more the pressure mounts and if Darnold can simply make the right throws and avoid mistakes, the Jets could be in this in the fourth quarter.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE TOTAL

Originally, I thought this would be a game where the Cowboys “got right” and got back on track, but with lingering injuries to offensive tackles Tyron Smith and La’El Collins, this won’t be easy for Dallas. Randall Cobb is also a question mark for Week 6, so that adds more concern to the Cowboys.

Even so, I can’t see the Jets competing in this game for more than a half. Dallas will contain Le’Veon Bell, Darnold will be just OK and the Cowboys will win comfortably.