NFL Football Betting: Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts

No Andrew Luck is almost no problem for Frank Reich’s Colts. Left for dead after the 2012 number-one pick’s sudden retirement, Indianapolis is surprisingly feisty so far in 2019. Despite starting the season with two road games as underdogs of six and three points against the Chargers and Titans, respectively, the Colts are 1-1 and could easily be 2-0.

Though also 1-1, the Falcons have underperformed. After getting dominated in Minnesota, they barely held on to defeat the injury-plagued Eagles on Sunday night. They do have the bigger names, including the MVP pedigree of Matt Ryan, and one of the top defenses in the league in terms of yards allowed.

ATLANTA FALCONS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
LINE: COLTS -1
TOTAL: 47

Thanks in part to “holding” Kirk Cousins to 98 yards in Week 1’s blowout, Atlanta has the league’s top pass defense. They’re third overall in pass yards allowed but 23rd in points allowed — one spot behind the Colts. 

Though the Falcons are led by a defensive coach in Dan Quinn, it’s the offense that typically wins and loses games. Matt Ryan already has two 300-yard games but has been more careless with the ball than usual. He has five interceptions already after throwing seven in all of 2018. On top of that, two of them were in the red zone.

Ryan has faced the Colts twice before, but oddly enough never faced Luck. The first meeting was 2011 when Luck was still at Stanford. Peyton Manning’s neck injury led to the Colts playing poorly enough to select Luck first overall in 2012. Atlanta won 31-7 and Ryan threw for 275 yards with three touchdowns and an interception.

The second meeting was in 2015. Matt Hasselbeck started for the Colts in that one since Luck was recovering from a lacerated kidney. However, the Falcons lost 24-21 at home as Ryan threw for 280 yards, three touchdowns and three picks, one of which was returned for a touchdown. So, in the middle of having interception issues, Ryan will face a team that has given him interception issues in the past.

The good news for Ryan is this is a completely new coaching staff. The Colts had just one interception and two total takeaways in the first two games. 

Further, they’re having some injury problems that Ryan could take advantage of. All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard did not practice on Thursday and his status is up in the air. Top corner Pierre Desir was limited as well as defensive end Jabaal Sheard. Leonard and Sheard ranked second and third on the Colts in sacks in 2018.

Despite few meetings over the years, the Colts do lead the all-time series between these two teams, 14-2. They also haven’t needed to pass to be relatively successful in their first two games. They’re last in the league in pass yards per game but second in rush yards per game.

The problem is Marlon Mack’s availability. Mack trails only Dalvin Cook and Saquon Barkley in rushing yards, but Mack didn’t practice on Thursday and his status is up in the air at the moment. If the Colts want to continue to be a running team, that will be more difficult with Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines leading the way.

THE PICK: FALCONS +1

The Colts have too many injuries and Ryan isn’t likely to continue turning the ball over. He had seven total interceptions in two of the last three years and has never thrown more than 17 in a season. He’s on pace for 40, so this shouldn’t continue. The line could change once we have concrete news on Darius Leonard, but for now we’ll assume he doesn’t and take the Falcons.

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