NFL Football Betting: Cleveland Browns at New York Jets

The Cleveland Browns were the team of the offseason. Numerous publications picked the Browns to make the postseason for the first time since 2002, but the star-crossed franchise fell flat on its face in Week 1. Cleveland was crushed by 30 points in its opener, and this team needs a win to keep its fans from muttering, “Same old Browns.” Fortunately, the Browns have a very winnable game against the New York Jets in Week 2.

CLEVELAND BROWNS AT NEW YORK JETS
LINE: BROWNS -6.5 -115
TOTAL: 44.5

Quarterback injuries and illnesses have a massive impact on NFL betting odds. We saw that firsthand with the line for this game, as the news of Sam Darnold being out for an extended period of time due to mono shifted the football betting line dramatically. Cleveland was originally -3, but the Darnold news moved the line to -6.5. The total moved too, falling from 46 to 44.5.

INJURY REPORT

When the NFL schedule was announced, this game was supposed to feature the No. 1 pick (Baker Mayfield) and the No. 2 pick (Darnold) in the 2018 NFL Draft. However, Darnold’s illness means that Trevor Siemian will be the Jets quarterback for Monday Night Football with Luke Falk backing up Siemian.

That’s not the only injury for the Jets though, as almost a dozen players are on the injury report. Wide receiver Quincy Enunwa was placed on injury reserve, defensive tackle Nathan Shepherd has been suspended by the NFL for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, and both star linebacker CJ Mosley and first round defensive tackle Quinnen Williams are sidelined due to injury. Additionally, Le’Veon Bell, Demaryius Thomas, Braxton Berrios, Kelvin Beachum, Alex Lewis, Brian Winters, and Steve McLendon are questionable.

Cleveland won’t have offensive tackle Kendall Lamm, running back Dontrell Hilliard, linebacker Adarius Taylor, and safety Damarious Randall for Monday’s game. Drew Stanton, Rashard Higgins, Joel Bitonio, and Chris Smith are questionable.

WHEN NEW YORK IS ON OFFENSE

Siemian will start his first game since December 2017 tomorrow night. The fifth-year quarterback started 24 games with the Denver Broncos in 2016 and 2017, accumulating a record of 13-11. Denver won and covered the NFL betting line in his last two games, but his inconsistent play led to Siemian becoming a back-up quarterback for Kirk Cousins in Minnesota last year.

The Jets would love to lean on high-priced acquisition Le’Veon Bell with Darnold out, but Bell is a game-time decision due to a shoulder injury. Bell is one of the most dynamic running backs in the NFL, and his versatility makes it hard for defenses to key on whether to expect a run or a pass. If he is out, Ty Montgomery and Bilal Powell are the running backs, and Cleveland’s defense will have a much easier time. Montgomery is most often used in the passing game, while Powell is used as a straight-line runner.

Cleveland gave up 43 points to Tennessee last week, but the defense wasn’t that bad. The Browns offense turned the ball over three times in the fourth quarter, leading to 21 Titans points. Cleveland’s defense allowed just 339 total yards and sacked Marcus Mariota four times on the afternoon.

WHEN CLEVELAND IS ON OFFENSE

Baker Mayfield tried to do too much against Tennessee last week, and the coaches probably reiterated that to their franchise quarterback in the film room this week. Mayfield threw three interceptions in Week 1, so expect him to be more careful with the ball against a Jets defense decimated by injuries. With that in mind, betting on Mayfield to not throw an interception per the NFL player props seems like a wise move.

Not everything can be blamed on Mayfield though, as Cleveland’s offensive line did not look sharp against Tennessee. Mayfield was sacked five times and pressured even more by the Titans, casting doubt on an offensive line that was a big question mark coming into this season. That’s something the Jets could expose with a healthy Mosley and Williams, but the loss of the two best players in their front seven really hurts.

Nick Chubb was one of the top-rated running backs in the NFL last season according to advanced metrics, and he should get more run here after only carrying the ball 17 times in Week 1. He averaged 4.4 yards per carry against the Titans and getting Chubb going will give the offensive line a boost and take pressure off of Mayfield.

PREDICTION

This is a great spot for the Browns. The Jets don’t have their best players on both sides of the ball, and there isn’t likely to be a big home field advantage for Gang Green. Cleveland should move to 1-1 here.