NFL Football Betting: Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins

The big news for the Chargers is the return of Melvin Gordon, but his return to the field will have to wait at least another week. Looking to avoid a 1-3 start, Los Angeles will travel to Miami, where they have historically struggled.

Fortunately, the Dolphins have been historically bad. The high point of their season was a 25-point loss last week and they basically haven’t looked competitive at any point after halftime. Perhaps never before has a team been so deserving of double-digit home underdog status.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
LINE: CHARGERS -15
TOTAL: 44.5

A seasoned gambler would be tempted to take a 15-point home underdog. In fact, some poor fool made a similar case just two weeks ago. Said fool was shocked to see the Dolphins make the wrong kind of history and, full disclosure: it might be affecting his view of this game.

We can say things like “the Dolphins can’t get any worse” and “surely they won’t finish 0-16 against the spread–no team is that bad.” The thing is, they just might be. They’ve somehow been outscored 133-16, meaning they have the dubious distinction of being ranked 32nd in both points scored and points allowed.

But that’s not all! They’re also 32nd in turnover differential and rushing yards allowed per game. They’re 31st in rushing yards per game, 30th in passing yards per game and 28th in passing yards allowed per game. That’s right, the 28th ranked pass defense, that isn’t even called upon that often due to always playing from behind, is the pride of the team.

With all of that in mind, it’s fair to wonder if the spread should be even higher. But the Chargers’ struggles in Miami could give the underdogs some small measure of hope.

Since 1988, the Chargers are 0-6 in Miami and 2-4 against the spread. The two covers came in 1988 and 1999. In 2014, the last time the Chargers went to Miami, they lost 37-0.

Surprisingly, this will be the Chargers’ first trip to Miami in September. They’ve never even played in Miami when the weather is at its worst. 

The Chargers, like most west coast teams, are undoubtedly not looking forward to a cross-country trip and 10 am PT start time. Even against the hapless Dolphins, LA’s horrid history in Miami and the time zone change are worth taking into account.

But “hapless” is probably too kind for the Dolphins. They simply don’t do anything well and they keep getting worse through injuries and trading away players who could’ve helped. As much as their offensive line has struggled, Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram could be unstoppable. 

THE PICK: LOS ANGELES -15

Yes, this breaks all the rules. We’re supposed to jump on big home underdogs whenever we can, especially when the favorite is a west coast team playing on the east coast at 10 am PT. That’s what we’ll tell ourselves if this goes the other way.

But who could possibly feel good about betting on the Dolphins? They’ve already benefited from enormous point spreads this season and still haven’t come close to covering. 

Really, it all comes down to this: what will make you feel dumber if you’re wrong? Will you be angrier that you ignored conventional gambling wisdom, or will you be angrier that you trusted the historically terrible Dolphins? At this point, it’s relying on the Dolphins for us. Take the Chargers but prepare to feel terrible if it doesn’t work out.

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