NFL Football Betting Season Begins With Hall of Fame Game

It might not quite be the ‘first robin of Spring’ but for NFL football fans and bettors the annual Hall of Fame game has become a symbolic start to a busy 9 or 10 months. The pace of sports betting is leisurely during the Summer months but that won’t be the case for much longer. It’ll be wall to wall football and basketball–along with hockey, soccer and a number of other sports–until late May/early June of next year. So let’s get things started with the first preseason game of the year between the Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons coming to you from the Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium in Canton, Ohio.

By now most people understand that handicapping preseason NFL football is a completely different concept from the regular season. This is particularly true in the early part of the preseason. It’s essential to remember that this game is going to be more ‘Atlanta’s backups and reserves’ against ‘Denver’s backups and reserves’ than it will be Joe Flacco vs. Matt Ryan. It’s easy to forget just how little starters play in this game so a quick refresher–last year Matt Ryan attempted two passes in the Falcons first preseason game. Most of the other key starters were in for one drive which consisted of four plays covering six yards and ending with a punt. The fact that both teams are coming off of losing seasons won’t change things. Flacco might not play at all–Kevin Hogan is listed as the starter.

Another concept that is effective in the preseason is understanding what each team’s reserves bring to the table. In particular, having experience and depth at quarterback and along the line can make a huge difference. So too can having players that have been in ‘the system’ for a period of time as opposed to situations with new players and/or a new coach. This likely favors Atlanta and particularly at quarterback where the Falcons have the extremely experienced Matt Schaub along with Kurt Benkert who played in all of the team’s preseason games this year. The offensive line fits the description of players that have been in ‘the system’ for awhile.

Denver has a ‘double whammy’ of a new head coach and plenty of new personnel. Quarterback is a big question mark behind Flacco so you’ll see some combination of rookie Drew Lock, Kevin Hogan and Brett Rypien as the Broncos try to figure out the depth chart. Lock is likely to see a good deal of time in the preseason as the team evaluates what they have in the second round pick out of Missouri. Denver hopes that they’ve found a solid asset for the future but new head coach Vic Fangio’s enthusiasm is somewhat muted at this point saying that Lock is “not a quarterback yet. He’s a hard-throwing pitcher that doesn’t know how to pitch yet.” Nice vote of confidence, Coach.

Speaking of coaching, Atlanta has more experience here as well. Worth noting, however, that the Falcons have been a huge preseason money loser during Dan Quinn’s tenure going 4-12 against the spread including a 0-4 last year. Even so, Quinn and company instills more confidence than the Broncos coaching staff. Vic Fangio is an extremely capable defensive coordinator as proven in his stops in Chicago and San Francisco but this will be his head coaching debut. New offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello was Kyle Shanahan’s quarterbacks coach with the Niners. He’s had plenty of coaching experience but has never done any play calling above the collegiate level.

The NFL pointspread has moved considerably for this game. It opened with the Falcons a -1 favorite and they took some early action but since then there’s been a strong move toward Denver. Ryan’s dubious preseason performance history notwithstanding it’s tough to figure why. Five of the last eight HOF games have been decided by single digit margins so we’ll take the points with the Falcons in a game that goes ‘Under’ the total.

BET ATLANTA FALCONS +3 -130 OVER DENVER BRONCOS
BET ATLANTA FALCONS/DENVER BRONCOS UNDER 34.5 -105

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