NFL Football Betting: Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons

By BetOnline September 27, 2019

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The NFC South is wide open for the taking and this is a golden opportunity for the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta fell apart last season after making the playoffs in 2016 and 2017, but with Drew Brees and Cam Newton both banged up, the Falcons should have the best offense in the division. That offense has sputtered through the first three games of the season, yet the oddsmakers think Atlanta should move to 2-2 when facing the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.

TENNESSEE TITANS AT ATLANTA FALCONS
LINE: FALCONS -3.5
TOTAL: 45

This line has come down from where it opened. Initially, the NFL betting odds had Atlanta installed as a five-point favorite, but action on Tennessee has led to the line falling to 3.5 points. The total has dropped from 46 to 45 as well.

INJURY REPORT

Atlanta lost one of its best defenders when Keanu Neal suffered a torn Achilles’ tendon last Sunday against Indianapolis. Neal is a playmaking safety that is excellent in run support, and the Falcons will miss him terribly. Defensive end Takk McKinley and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett are both questionable, while on the offensive side of the ball, running backs Kenjon Barner and Ito Smith and wide receiver Calvin Ridley are questionable.

There aren’t as many injuries to report for the Titans. Tight end Delanie Walker and guard Kevin Pamphile are questionable on offense, and linebacker Daren Bates is questionable on defense.

WHEN ATLANTA IS ON OFFENSE

The Falcons were expected to have one of the best passing attacks in the NFL coming into this season. Matt Ryan was the favorite to lead the league in passing yards per NFL futures odds, but something has been amiss.

On the surface, the numbers are fine. Ryan has thrown for over 900 yards, and he is completing 72.4 percent of his passes. However, many of those numbers have been padded in garbage time in games against Minnesota and Indianapolis, and Ryan has already thrown six interceptions this season. Ridley might not play due to a hip injury, leaving Jones as the No. 1 wide receiver with a bullet this week.

Atlanta’s ground game has not helped matters much. Devonta Freeman is averaging a scant 3.7 yards per carry on the season, and the Falcons have been unable to establish the run. They are averaging just 18 carries per game, a number that pales in comparison to the rest of the league.

The Titans have one of the NFL’s best defenses for a second straight season, and this defense is keeping Tennessee in games. They have an excellent ball hawking safety in Kevin Byard, and Tennessee is allowing just 6.6 yards per attempt on the year. Tennessee held Jacksonville’s power run game in check last week outside of one big run from Leonard Fournette, so don’t expect a big game from Freeman.

WHEN TENNESSEE IS ON OFFENSE

Tennessee must find a way to protect Marcus Mariota. Mariota has been sacked 17 times already this season, and he was brought down nine times against Jacksonville last week. The fifth-year quarterback isn’t a great passer as it is, but he is not getting the time to look downfield since he is always under pressure. This Titans’ offensive line must find a way to keep Mariota upright.

If the Titans can keep Mariota from being pressured too much, they could have a lot of success against Atlanta’s defense. The Falcons secondary collapsed without Neal last season, and the run defense took a hit since he often rolled down into the box. That could mean a big game for Corey Davis who has gotten open often this year. Mariota hasn’t connected with Davis much, but that means there should be value in Davis’ player prop odds.

Derrick Henry is a power back that can wear down defenses over four quarters, and he could be the X-Factor in a close game. Henry is averaging 4.1 yards per carry this year, and he has become more of an every down back. He’ll get the chance to tote the rock often.

This Falcons defense is seventh in the NFL in yards allowed, but that’s a misleading stat. Minnesota pulled the plug on its offense after jumping ahead early on Atlanta, and Indianapolis scaled things down significantly in the second half. That has led to this defense’s value being inflated so don’t think Atlanta will have a banner day on defense.