NFL Football: Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers

By BetOnline October 24, 2019

0 Comments

The Carolina Panthers have been rolling with Kyle Allen at quarterback. It’s been a nice little streak as they’ve beaten the Arizona Cardinals, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That’s been nice and all, and it’s spurred the “maybe the Panthers are better with Allen instead of Cam Newton” talk, but now comes the real test. Can Allen lead the Panthers on the road and knock off the top team in the NFC?

CAROLINA PANTHERS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
NFL ODDS: 49ERS -5.5
NFL TOTAL: 41.5

WHY THE PANTHERS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Panthers haven’t lost a game since Week 2. They key to their success has been that Kyle Allen has avoided the crucial mistakes and running back Christian McCaffrey has performed like an NFL MVP, carrying this offense without Cam Newton. McCaffrey is by far the best offensive player on the Panthers, scoring seven rushing touchdowns in six games, plus multiple receiving touchdowns. He is on pace to collect over 1,600 rushing yards. But this team has playmakers at wide receiver as well and Allen has done a good job of getting the ball in the hands of Curtis Samuel and D.J. Moore, and letting them make their moves.

San Francisco might be undefeated but this is surely the toughest defense they’ve faced on the season. The Panthers rank fifth in overall defense; the 49ers other six opponents are all either 14th or worse in scoring defense. The 49ers mustered just nine points against the Redskins last week and only 20 points against the Rams the week before. Very quietly, Jimmy Garoppolo has been very mistake-prone as he has an interception in all but one game this season. If that continues and Allen avoids the turnovers, the Panthers could win.

WHY THE 49ERS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

Even though Carolina has won four straight games, only one of those wins was against a team with a winning record (the Houston Texans). The other three wins came against teams with break-even records (Arizona is 3-3-1) or losing records (Jacksonville and Tampa Bay). The Niners represent a much bigger and different challenge – especially with their defense, which is ranked second in the NFL in points allowed per game. San Francisco has allowed a grand total of 10 points in its last three games.

The key here should be the pass rush. Allen has been dropped 10 times in four games while the 49ers are ranked ninth in sacks. Nick Bosa has been great, but so has Arik Armstead, a less-noticed defensive lineman who has given the Niners great value. This isn’t just about Bosa; the defensive front has smothered opposing offensive lines such as the Los Angeles Rams’ front line. This shift is the primary reason the Niners have supplanted the Rams as the NFC West leader and favorite. The Panthers are unlikely to stand in the way.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE TOTAL

The quality of the 49ers’ defense makes it very hard to expect much from the Panthers’ offense. Moreover, since the Niners’ offense has not been great and they’re going up against the toughest defense they’ve seen so far. We’re probably looking at an under here.