NFL Football: Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs

By BetOnline October 25, 2019

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The Green Bay Packers are trying to keep pace with the unbeaten San Francisco 49ers and the one-loss New Orleans Saints at the top of the NFC. They have received a stroke of good fortune in Week 8 as it looks like they’ll dodge the reigning league MVP, Patrick Mahomes. Can they take advantage of it?

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
NFL ODDS: PACKERS -4
NFL TOTAL: 48

WHY THE PACKERS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Packers are in great position to cover the spread as barring a miracle, the Kansas City Chiefs won’t have Patrick Mahomes for this game. By most accounts, that’s a seven-point swing on the betting lines as the Chiefs would have been around -3.

Mahomes wasn’t the MVP-level player over the last few weeks but he’s still a person who makes so many things possible for the Chiefs’ offense with his incredible skill set. Mahomes’ agility and presence in the pocket; his ability to throw the ball side-armed and at other unusual angles; and his combination of speed and touch on a vast array of passes, all enable the Kansas City offense to put up huge numbers. That’s going to make Green Bay’s job on defense a lot easier.

But remember that the Chiefs struggled with Mahomes in the lineup, losing two of their last three. The defense has been bad, allowing 28 points to the Baltimore Ravens, 31 to the Houston Texans, 30 to the Detroit Lions. They’ve had a really tough time getting off the field, allowing the Colts to get 25 first downs and control the ball for 37 minutes and 15 seconds. If that’s the defense the Packers are going to see on Sunday, they’re getting the win.

WHY THE CHIEFS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

While it’s true that the Chiefs are without Mahomes and are down to journeyman Matt Moore, take caution writing off an Andy Reid team using a backup. Reid made Chase Daniel look serviceable the last couple of seasons and there were many times in Philadelphia where he stole wins with backups (see: A.J. Feeley and Koy Detmer). Nobody will mistake Moore for Mahomes but he is a lot better than many other NFL backup quarterbacks. Moore quarterbacked the Miami Dolphins in the AFC playoffs a few seasons ago. Much like Ryan Fitzpatrick, another player with some NFL starts on his ledger sheet, Moore is not a high-level No. 1 quarterback, but he is a very good backup who can perform well in spot duty.

The Packers run defense has been hemorrhaging yards this season, giving up 128.9 rushing yards per game (24th in the NFL). While the Chiefs have been awful at running the ball, this would be a good week to get things going. If that happens to work, then Moore should have more time to operate in the pocket and find the playmakers like Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman, and Tyreek Hill. They’ve had 10 days to adjust for this injury, so don’t expect the Chiefs to come out unprepared.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE TOTAL

Careful banking on what you see week-to-week. Yes, the Packers offense clicked last week as Aaron Rodgers compiled six total touchdowns but the Packers offense has mostly labored throughout the year outside of that explosion (and the one at Dallas). Look for a strong effort from the Chiefs and a muted offensive effort from both sides.