NFL Football: New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens

By BetOnline November 1, 2019

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The New England Patriots have been cruising for much of the NFL season but they’ve mostly played cupcakes. Now they’ll get a stiffer test as they visit the 5-2 Baltimore Ravens for Sunday Night Football. The Ravens are fresh off a bye and are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 off a bye under John Harbaugh, so maybe they surprise here.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS
NFL ODDS: PATRIOTS -3.5
NFL TOTAL: 46

WHY THE PATRIOTS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Patriots have the best defense in the AFC. Maybe not the whole NFL – the San Francisco 49ers and New Orleans Saints have an argument to make – but certainly the AFC. No other AFC team can boast of a defense which has allowed just four offensive touchdowns in eight games this season. The Patriots have not allowed more than 14 points to any team they have faced this season, and in those two games in which they allowed 14 points, at least some of those points (if not all) were not given up by the defense in particular. The most offensive points the Patriots’ defense has allowed in a single game came this past Sunday against the Cleveland Browns: 13 points. This is a ridiculous level of consistent high-level production.

While the Patriots defense is stellar, the Ravens defense has been far from it. We’re talking about a team that’s ranked 26th in pass defense. Their secondary has taken a lot of criticism but the bigger issue has been up front where they’ve generated just 12 sacks. Only four teams have less. If Tom Brady has time to make reads and decisions, this game won’t be close.

There’s a lot of talk about how the Patriots have beaten up on a soft schedule but what about Baltimore? Their wins are against Miami, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Seattle. The Seahawks win is quality but everything else isn’t that impressive.

WHY THE RAVENS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

Even though New England’s defense has been incredible, the Patriots’ offense has not been very special. The Patriots’ offense has been competent and responsible, doing what it needs to do to win, but nothing more. The Patriots are getting short fields as a result of all the takeaways the defense has gained. The dominance of the defense also means the Patriots’ offense gets more possessions. New England has scored four defensive touchdowns this season, and that doesn’t count the drives the Patriots have started in an opponent’s half of the field.

For the most part, everyone who has faced the Patriots this season has handed them wins. Cleveland, for instance, coughed up three turnovers on three straight first quarter plays last Sunday, and then added 13 penalties to boot. If the Ravens come out and simply take care of the football and punt from time to time, they’ll be in this game.

A big concern in this spot for New England is their rushing yard average at just 95.2 yards per game (23rd). Going on the road without a ground game is always tough and that could be a problem here.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE TOTAL

The struggles of the Patriots’ running game, combined with the Ravens coming off a bye likely means we see more of a defensive game here. Keep in mind that the Patriots also have some kicking woes after cutting Mike Nugent, so that could keep some points off the board. This feels like an under.