NFL Football: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks

By BetOnline November 1, 2019

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TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
NFL ODDS: SEAHAWKS -6
NFL TOTAL: 50.5

WHY THE BUCCANEERS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The have already gone on the road once as a big dog against an NFC West foe and cashed in, so what’s to say they can’t do it again? They played a brilliant game in Los Angeles and dealt the defending NFC champion Rams a humiliating 55-40 defeat. Jameis Winston threw for 385 yards and four touchdowns with just one interception. Bucs head coach Bruce Arians knows how to win in Seattle as he is 4-1 against Pete Carroll in games played in Seattle.

This Seahawks defense isn’t what it used to be. They are just 2-2 at home this season and have allowed no less than 29 points in three straight home games. In the one home game they didn’t – when they beat the Cincinnati Bengals 21-20 – they allowed the now-benched Andy Dalton to pass for a career-high 417 passing yards.

There’s no question that Tampa Bay is a crapshoot. From week-to-week, from play-to-play, Winston is a complete roll of the dice. He might make an All-Pro throw or embarrass himself and the team. If he can cut out the turnovers, Tampa Bay will have a chance.

WHY THE SEAHAWKS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

Even though Bruce Arians knows how to beat Pete Carroll, it is less certain that the Bucs’ roster knows how to beat the Seahawks. Winston has thrown 12 interceptions – tied for the NFL lead with Baker Mayfield of the Cleveland Browns – and is averaging 2.6 turnovers per game. Three of the Bucs five losses were by one score or less, so you can imagine just how crippling these turnovers have been.

The question is: why will it stop now? Seattle’s defense might not be great by many metrics but they are fifth in the NFL in terms of takeaways with 15.

On the other side of the ball, when the Seahawks are on offense, they should feast on the Bucs secondary. Russell Wilson is an NFL MVP candidate who has thrown for over 2,100 yards midway through the season with 17 touchdowns and just one interception. He is on pace to throw for over 4,200 yards. He should do well against a pass defense that’s second-last in the NFL with 285.9 passing yards allowed. Tampa Bay has just 16 sacks on the year but remember that 10 of them are by Shaq Barrett and eight of those were in the first three games. They have a total of eight sacks since. If Wilson has time to operate, it’s going to be a long day for this Bucs defense.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE TOTAL

We’ve seen this total trickle down a bit as it opened at 53.5 but it’s down to 51. It seems like the wrong move as the two defenses here are pretty generous in terms of points allowed and the two offenses are capable. The weather isn’t a factor here as we’re expecting a cool, crisp autumn day but no elements in play.

With weak secondaries in this game, combined with the talent at quarterback and the inability of either team to rush the passer, this points closer to a shootout than a defensive struggle.