NFL Futures Odds Value Plays: AFC Championship

The NFL loves parity and that’s definitely what they’ve got this season. The field is wide open and this is evident by looking at the Super Bowl futures odds. Only two teams are at single digit odds–Kansas City and New England are both priced at +800. Only eight teams are priced lower than +2000. In the past twenty years, there have been 12 different teams to win the Super Bowl. That trend could continue this season.

The odds to win the conference championship is also wide open both in the NFC and AFC. There are four teams with single digit odds in each conference. In the AFC, the co-favorites are the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots at +400. In the NFC, the New Orleans Saints are a +500 favorite right ahead of the Philadelphia Eagles at +650. In this post, we’ll look down the betting board a bit and look for a few value teams to win the AFC Championship. We’ll hit the NFC futures odds in a subsequent post.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP FUTURES BETTING VALUE PLAYS

Finding good betting value is the sports betting equivalent of ‘buy low/sell high’ in stock market investing. If you find value, you don’t need to worry about wins and losses–they take care of themselves. That’s one of the big steps in moving from a recreational bettor to a professional bettor–getting out of the mindset that you’re ‘picking winners’ and into one of ‘finding value’. In all cases, the probability of the teams I’ve listed below to win the AFC Championship is greater than implied by their futures odds prices.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+2500)

Before Andrew Luck’s retirement, the Colts were one of the public darlings to win the Super Bowl. Now the mood is that the Colts deserve to be relegated to the XFL. That’s hardly the case. No one is saying that Jacoby Brissett is as good as a healthy, focused Andrew Luck. Lest we forget, however, the reason Luck retired was that he was neither healthy nor focused. Colts improved all around and the enthusiasm that was there before Luck’s retirement is the same reason that the transition to Brissett will be easier. The offensive line gave up fewer sacks than any team in the NFL (18) and there’s talent at all of the skill positions. The defense was decent last year and got better in the off season. Great value on a very good team that has been excessively downgraded due to Luck’s retirement.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+2500)

Only five teams in the league held opponents to fewer than 20 PPG last year. Jacksonville was one of them. The Jaguars’ defense is nasty and now that they’ve upgraded at quarterback from Blake Bortles to Nick Foles they could be even better with an offense that can move the football. If running back Leonard Fournette stays healthy they’re a team that can surprise a lot of people. Remember that the Jaguars were just a few minutes away from going to the Super Bowl in 2017 *with* Bortles at quarterback. They’ve got the same nasty defense this year, only with a better quarterback.

TENNESSEE TITANS (+4000)

Most of the teams on the ‘fewest bets to win Super Bowl’ list are teams that I wouldn’t touch with a ten foot pole. The exception? The Tennessee Titans. The Titans were a bottom ten team in most offensive categories yet they were one of eight NFL teams with a positive point differential last season. How does that happen? With a nasty–and ridiculously underrated–defense. The Titans finished #3 in scoring defense last year giving up just 18.9 PPG. Only the Chicago Bears and Baltimore Ravens allowed fewer points. Overall, there were only 5 NFL teams that allowed less than 20 PPG and the Titans were one of them. This is a make or break year for Marcus Mariota but he’s been put into a position to succeed with upgraded weapons around him. The biggest upgrade could be a healthy offensive line.

BUFFALO BILLS (+5000)

This might be the most ridiculous AFC futures odds valuation of them all. The Bills have the same odds as the Raiders and only the Bengals and Dolphins are priced at longer odds. Bills are very well coached with the underrated Sean McDermott and particularly on defense. Great top draft pick with defensive tackle Ed Oliver out of Houston. He’s an absolute beast at 6’2″ 287 lbs and freakishly fast and athletic for the size. He’ll be a serious presence on the Bills’ line from the opening kickoff. Offensive line was upgraded as was the defense as a whole. Great move to bring in Ken Dorsey as quarterbacks’ coach–Dorsey worked with Cam Newton in Carolina for five years and Josh Allen has the potential to develop a similar game.

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