NFL Playoff Action Begins On Saturday As Houston Texans Host Indianapolis Colts

A pair of AFC South teams will do battle on Sunday as the Houston Texans host the Indianapolis Colts in a NFL Wild Card playoff game. These teams are great examples of the ephemeral nature of success and failure in the National Football League. A month or two into the season no one expected to see either team anywhere near the playoffs. The Houston Texans turned things around fairly quickly—after opening their schedule with three straight losses they embarked upon a nine game winning streak that made the AFC South title something of a foregone conclusion. Or at least that’s what they thought. The Indianapolis Colts mounted a spirited challenge after an even more impressive turnaround. The Colts lost five of six and appeared to be going nowhere. The second guessing had already begun over the hire of rookie head coach Frank Reich and although he appeared nonplussed by the season starting slump there were questions about his longevity.

Now? Not so much. After dropping a 42-34 decision to the lowly New York Jets the Colts flipped the proverbial switch. Since then, they’ve gone 9-1 with their only loss to a fired up Jacksonville Jaguars’ defensive unit in Week 13. That was the week that Jags’ ownership essentially questioned the players’ manhood and the excellent Jax defensive unit responded big time carrying the rest of the team in a 6-0 win. The way the schedule worked out it never looked like they would catch Houston atop the AFC South but the important thing to Indy fans is that the Colts are back in the playoffs and they’re surging and scary at the right time of the year. So what happened? It’s amazing how dominant that Andrew Luck becomes with even a modicum of pass protection and the Colts gave him a lot more than that—after the porous Indy offensive line allowed 56 sacks in 2017 they experienced a complete transformation in 2018 giving up a NFL low 18 sacks. Fortunately for Luck, he was sidelined with a shoulder injury last year and didn’t have to deal with the Indy sack fest. This year, he’s the beneficiary of a complete revival in the team’s lineplay and he’s repaid the favor with 39 touchdown passes.

The sack total is salient since this Indianapolis strength is a Houston weakness. The Texans’ offensive line play has completely atrophied this season. Maybe it’s laziness brought on by the fact that they’ve got the very mobile Deshaun Watson under center but for whatever reason their poor pass protection is downright alarming. In 2018, the Houston Texans allowed more sacks than the Colts did last year. Their 62 sacks allowed the highest number allowed by NFL team in over a decade. It’s extremely dangerous for a NFL team to get sloppy ‘in the trenches’ just because they have amazing athletes in skill positions. To some degree, it negates just how good Watson and his ridiculously talented wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins can be a their best.

In the past, this might not have been a big deal since you have to go back to Baltimore to find a Colts’ team that boasts a nasty defensive side. Things change quickly in today’s NFL, however, and in this case you’ve got a guy named Matt Eberflus to thank. Eberflus is the Indianapolis defensive coordinator who was hired along with Reich and while he might not get the media coverage of his former NFL quarterback boss is likely the team’s coaching ‘MVP’. Last year, Indy was downright embarrassing on defense ranked #30 in total defense, #28 in passing defense, #26 in rushing defense and #30 in scoring defense. Not hard to beat a team when you know that they struggle to stop whatever an opponent wants to do on offense. In Eberflus’ first season they’ve improved dramatically in all phases of the defensive game and after the 2018 regular season rank #11 in total defense, #8 in rushing defense, #16 in passing defense and #10 in scoring defense.

When you combine a resurgent Indianapolis defense with a potent offense (#6 in passing offense, #7 total offense and #5 in scoring offense) it’s a ticket for victory. The ‘tale of the tape’ shows that these teams split a pair of games during the regular season but that doesn’t tell the full story. Indy took the Texans to overtime in the first game but lost after an unsuccessful 4th down conversion late. A punt would have likely given them a tie but at this juncture it’s a plus that Reich’s playcalling is aggressive and that he trusts his personnel. In two games, Andrew Luck ripped Houston for 863 yards and six touchdowns and he’ll have another big day here in a Colts victory as +1 NFL playoff betting underdogs.

BET INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +1 OVER HOUSTON TEXANS