NFL Playoff Trends: Vikings 1-9 In San Francisco Since 1988
The Vikings were the biggest underdogs of the Wild Card round and Mike Zimmer made sure they were aware. In true “nobody believed in us but the guys in this locker room” fashion, Minnesota defeated the 13-3 Saints in overtime. The bad news: they only have six days to prepare for a road matchup with the 49ers.
While the Vikings were in the midst of an emotional road win in overtime, the 49ers relaxed at home. As the top seed, they’ll be very well rested against a team playing on a short week. However, Minnesota’s playoff win gave them more postseason experience than much of San Francisco’s roster. The 49ers will be making their first playoff appearance since losing in the NFC Championship six years ago.
If you’re looking for some action on the Divisional round, here are some trends to inform your betting decisions.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+6.5) @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The Vikings have covered in four of their last five games. They’re 3-7 ATS after a win. They’re 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs of 6.5 or more.
The 49ers are 3-1 ATS with a rest advantage. They’re 3-4-1 ATS as home favorites and 7-3 ATS outside of the NFC West. They’re 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home meetings with Minnesota. In their last 10 games as home favorites of 6.5 or more, they’re 1-8-1 ATS. They’re 0-3-1 ATS in that spot this season.
The total went over in seven of Minnesota’s 11 games outside of the NFC North. Twelve of their last 20 games as road underdogs of 6.5 or more went under.
The 49ers closed the season with three overs and a push. The total went over in five of their eight games at home.
The total went under in each of the last three Minnesota-San Francisco games.
MINNESOTA MONEY LINE: +235
SAN FRANCISCO MONEY LINE: -285
The Vikings are now 9-2 in non-division games this season. After Sunday’s win, they’re 2-18 as road underdogs of 6.5 or more since 2011. Since 2009, the Vikings are 3-1 against the 49ers.
The 49ers are just 2-2 with a rest advantage and 2-2 as home favorites of 6.5 or more. They’re 9-2 as favorites and 6-2 at home. Since the 1988 season, the 49ers are 9-1 when hosting the Vikings.
Kirk Cousins hasn’t thrown multiple touchdown passes in a game since Week 12.
When Dalvin Cook faced the 49ers last season, he was held to 40 rushing yards on 16 attempts.
Adam Thielen has nine targets in each of his last three postseason games but has never scored a touchdown in the playoffs.
Raheem Mostert has at least one rushing touchdown in six straight games. Over that stretch, he’s averaging 70.7 rushing yards per game.
Jimmy Garoppolo threw 44 percent of his touchdown passes in three games (at Arizona, vs. Arizona, at New Orleans). He threw one touchdown pass six times and no touchdown passes three times.
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