NFL PRESEASON WEEK 3: THURSDAY & FRIDAY PREVIEWS & PICKS

BY ADAM GREENE

Our NFL Preseason journey enters the endgame as Week 3 kicks off with a Thursday overlapping double feature before moving to a Friday foursome.

Though we’ve had some serious scares, we haven’t lost anyone major outside of New York Jets tackle Mekhi Becton. And while that sucks for him and New York, it’s not going to affect the final outcome of the 2022 NFL season at all.

Last week was a rough one for betting. While it might not matter to the individual NFL teams who wins each preseason game, for those of us enjoying the early chance to wager on football, it can ruin a whole day.

We have nine teams that are winless through the first two weeks of the exhibition schedule. Eight of them are 0-2 and the hapless (even when it doesn’t count) Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-3. Does it matter? There’s no logical way it could, but in the olden days, going winless in the exhibition schedule was a bad omen. A team only had about a 25 percent chance of going to the postseason with 0-1 preseason wins. And that was all back when every team played at least four games.

Incidentally, we have six undefeated teams left including a 3-0 squad we’ll discuss in a minute. According to those same old timey numbers that are useless now, there was no real advantage to going undefeated in August and two of the worst teams of all time, the 0-16 2008 Detroit Lions and the 0-16 2017 Cleveland Browns both went 4-0.

But, hey, we still have odds, lines and totals to build up a nice little stash to turn into some real cash when the sparks fly for real. So let’s use them.

THURSDAY

GREENE BAY PACKERS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+1, O/U: 36)

Since we know the chances of seeing anyone’s starters much (if at all) this week will be rare, it’s safe to say that this will be the Jordan Love vs Chad Henne show. In fact, of all the quarterbacks in the league, Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes might be two of the four least likely we’ll watch toss a ball around before the regular season kicks off. I was really impressed with Love last week and I’m rolling with him. I don’t think the Pack is going to find a trade partner this year for the kid, unless some crazy rash of injuries hits the league, but I do feel better about him as an NFL QB. Packers 17, Chiefs 14

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT HOUSTON TEXANS (+4, O/U: 41.5)

Trey Lance didn’t take a snap last week, so it’d be hard to believe he’d be wearing anything other than his headphones on the sideline in this one. It doesn’t matter who Houston is starting at quarterback. They’re 2-0 in the preseason. A veritable juggernaut in meaningless games as they play their starters a lot. For good reason. Most of the Texans’ starters would be back ups on nearly every other team. San Fran is too deep at running back and offensive line to not just grind this one out and sim to the regular season. 49ers 20, Texans 13

FRIDAY

BUFFALO BILLS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (-6, O/U: 42)

The Bills scared me last week, not only starting Josh Allen, but turning him loose to do Josh Allen things. And while he’s a huge, sturdy dude, I don’t like to see him scrambling around and barely getting the ball out before getting crushed by an edge rusher two weeks before the real season opens. As for the Panthers, there’s no reason not to throw Sam Darnold out there to try to drum up some trade interest since Carolina is fully on the Baker Mayfield train to oblivion. Buffalo’s depth looked so good last week, I don’t think it’ll matter. Bills 24, Panthers 20

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT DALLAS COWBOYS (+4, O/U: 37)

The Seahawks better hope Drew Lock can knock off the Covid-19 bug soon because the only way Geno Smith could have looked worse last week is if he tried to rock those braids again. No team has played more poorly in August than the Seahawks and it’s not looking any better in this one. Dallas is already banged up, even before the real season starts, so they can’t be taking this game seriously in the least. Now, writing that, I’m pretending Mike McCarthy knows what he’s doing. He could cart out Dak Prescott and play him three quarters and I wouldn’t be shocked. Seahawks 19, Cowboys 16

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3, O/U: 36.5)

LA and New Orleans both roll into this game winless in the preseason. For these two squads, I can’t see how this game could matter less. The Chargers are an AFC and Super Bowl favorite for good reason, even though Justin Herbert has never played a second of NFL playoff football. The Saints went 9-8 last year starting every Fudrucker’s Grillmaster they could lure out of the kitchen at QB. I think both franchises will still be standing when the bracket is settled in January, so this game is all about depth and trying to find your 53. That means everybody gets to play. New Orleans has more to search through, so I’m picking them. Saints 20, Chargers 17

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (-1.5, O/U: 37)

Well, the Patriots offensive brain trust of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge finally picked up their first victory last week. They better enjoy it, because I have a feeling they’ll be tough to come by when the lights turn on for real. The Raiders have been steamrolling through the preseason since the Hall of Fame game. They have the chance to be the only team in the NFL to post a 4-0 preseason since 2019. They probably don’t care, but I like their chances to do it. Raiders 23, Patriots 10

Last week:

Straight up: 5-11

Against the spread: 7-9

Preseason:

Straight up: 15-18

Against the spread: 16-17

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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