NFL Regular Season Prop Betting Preview: Part 2–Most Wins/Losses Totals

We’re making our way through the list of NFL regular season prop bets at BetOnline.ag. We tackled some of the props involving Andrew Luck, Jacoby Brissett and Todd Gurley in a previous post. In this preview we’ll hit some NFL proposition bets covering the ‘Most Wins’ and ‘Most Losses’ for the 2019 NFL season. This bet is somewhat unique because it’s not specific to an individual team–you have to bet the ‘Over’ or ‘Under’ and the bet will be graded based on the team with the most wins or losses.

NFL REGULAR SEASON PROP BETTING PREVIEW

MOST WINS FOR A TEAM IN 2019 REGULAR SEASON

The total in question is 13.5 wins and the best place to start is to look at this wager within the context of previous seasons. During the past 12 seasons the ‘Over’ and ‘Under’ would have each cashed 6 times. The average ‘Most Wins’ total from the last dozen seasons is 13.66. So this prop is a ‘coin flip’ right?

The NFL loves the concept of ‘parity’–by now you’ve probably heard the old cliche about how on ‘any given Sunday any team can beat any other team’ thousands of times. The gravitational pull of parity within the qualitative structure of the National Football League is strong enough that we’d look ‘Under’ before ‘Over’ on this prop based on that alone. Furthermore, looking at the most recent trend–the past seven years–suggests that the league might be more evenly matched now than earlier in the decade. As noted above, this prop would have gone ‘Over’ 6 times and ‘Under’ 6 times in the past 12 years. In the past seven years, however, it would have only exceeded this total twice.

Here’s a little more math–the average ‘Most Wins’ in a season for the first six years of the timeframe we’re looking at (2007–2012 inclusive) was 14.1 wins. For the most recent six years (2013-2018 inclusive) it was 13.1. Obviously, this is a small sample size and all of that but it does give us at least a little mathematical basis for our theory that the league is more evenly matched now than it was just a few years ago.

BET MOST WINS FOR A TEAM IN 2019 REGULAR SEASON UNDER 13.5 WINS -130

MOST LOSSES FOR A TEAM IN 2019 REGULAR SEASON

Now we’ll go to the other end of the spectrum. Once again, the total we’re working with is 13.5 but this time it is 13.5 losses. The ‘Under’ would have cashed last season as the Arizona Cardinals had the worst record at 3-13. But looking at the same timeframe we examined in the previous prop it’s obvious that the way to play it is to go ‘Over’. The ‘Over’ 13.5 losses has cashed in 10 of the past 12 seasons and even in the two years it stayed ‘Under’ (2018 and 2015) it was by 1/2 win. The 14 loss figure appears to be the ‘sweet spot’ for NFL regular season losses. The average ‘most losses’ during the past 12 years is 14.3 and the worst team went 2-14 in six straight seasons between 2009 and 2014 inclusive.

BET MOST LOSSES FOR A TEAM IN 2019 REGULAR SEASON OVER 13.5 LOSSES -150

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