NFL SEASON PREDICTIONS: COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR

BY ADAM GREENE

We sit about two weeks away from the start of the NFL season with a veritable smorgasbord of futures bets before us. These always pay of well from the simple fact that there are so many options and it’s so early, that to be worth the wager at all the money making possibility must be significant.

We’re going to go through all these before the season starts, but we’re starting at the top.

NFL 2020 COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR

This actually got interesting over the last week or so when the Washington Football Team announced that Alex Smith would be able to practice with the team and, will most likely, dominate both Dwayne Haskins and Kyle Allen in any legitimate quarterback competition.

Smith currently leads the pack at +300 odds and, if that’s the way you want to go, it’s hard to argue against it. But I’ll give you some options anyway.

First off, Smith has to be 100 percent, and “free to practice” and “ready to play” are two separate things. The other issue is how his injury affected his mindset, meaning his body might be ready but mentally he may not be. The dude nearly lost his leg and you can Google the photos and see for yourself. He has every reason to be a little skunked out there when it comes to taking a hit on a pass rush.

But, if Smith is good to go between the ears and with his body, starts 16 games and plays decent, he’s your winner. Just the feel good story alone will be enough to nab that postseason award.

But, if you think that maybe Smith isn’t ready, either physically or mentally, Igive you options Nos. 2 and 3; Ben Roethisberger  and Cam Newton, both at +500. This award almost always goes to a player battling back from injury or who was out of the league. It can, at times, go to a guy who just had a crap year before, but it would have to come with a monster leap. So unless Baker Mayfield (at +1000) throws for 40 TDs and has the Cleveland Browns at 13-3, a bet on him is a waste of money.

Nah, Newton and Roethlisberger are the safest bets here. Even if Smith is ready and starts, there’s no guarantee he stays there. If he does struggle (for whatever reason. TWF is a bad team, after all), there’s plenty of reason to give him the hook and toss in Haskins to run out the stretch. For the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots, all their playoff and postseason hopes rest on the health and performances of their quarterbacks.

So while Smith has the best odds, for my money Newton is your best bet.

There is a dark horse here, sitting at a monstrous +6600 that should not be overlooked: Denver Broncos edge rusher Bradley Chubb. Two years ago Chubb notched 12 sacks as a rookie. He tore his ACL last season, but it was early. If he hit something like 15 sacks this year and the Broncos are actually good and make the playoffs, he could deliver monster returns with a minimal financial risk.

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