NFL SEASON PREDICTIONS: DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR

BY ADAM GREENE

New England Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore broke a streak of five consecutive seasons in which a defensive lineman claimed the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year Award.

Before Gilmore, Los Angeles Rams defensive lineman Aaron Donald won it in back-to-back seasons, Edge rusher Khalil Mack claimed it once as an Oakland Raider and the Houston Texans J.J. Watt nabbed it in 2014 and 2015 to go with the one he earned in 2012.

So will this be another year that breaks the mold, or will a defensive lineman hoist the trophy once again?

2020 NFL DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR

To go ahead and answer that question, probably not. Aaron Donald, at +800, is easily the favorite to win this again for good reason. Frankly, if the Rams had won one more game in the regular season, Donald would have probably taken a third home in a row. His numbers in 2019 (48 tackles, league-leading 20 for a loss and 12.5 sacks and a safety) were better than the year he won it in 2017 (41 tackles, 15 for a loss, 11 sacks).

If you want to go ahead and place your bet on Donald, I won’t talk you out of it. I’ve already written about how the warm weather teams and players will have a distinct advantage when it comes with dealing with the ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic. Honestly, at +800, it’s the smart play.

And if you’ve been watching Donald on HBO’s Hard Knocks, yikes. The dude might make a run at the all time sack total this season. In the scrimmage they showed this week, he had something like six sacks in the first half.

But part of the reason I’m going through these individual awards is to pick out some dark horses. Guys that might be overlooked now, but show up big in the voting at the end of the season.

First, you want to look at guys you think will be contributors on playoff teams. It doesn’t matter that Donald is the best non quarterback in the league. The Rams missed the postseason by a game and he didn’t get the hardware.

We want a guy that not only plays on a contender, but is a big reason why that particular team is contending. Take a look at Jamal Adams and his +2000 payoff. Adams, if he was still a member of the New York Jets, would probably be a waste of a bet slip. But he’s a Seattle Seahawk now and will, most likely, get to experience playoff football for the first time. He’ll also make the Seahawks defense significantly better and, with Bobby Wagner, one of the two best players on it.

There will be plenty of Adams highlights at the end of the season and a possible NFC West title too.

If you’re looking for a bigger payout, take a gander at Jalen Ramsey and Minkah Fitzpatrick (+3300). Fitzpatrick thrived in the Steelers defense and, like Donald, was shut out of the DPOY conversation because his team missed the postseason. Ramsey is playing for a fat contract and is already probably the best corner in the league. If Los Angeles surprises people (everyone but me), he too could be in the conversation.

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