NFL Week 13 Games to Avoid

We were right on when we told you to avoid certain road favorites in Week 12 of the NFL season. The Pittsburgh Steelers failed to cover the number and needed to come from behind to beat winless Cincinnati last week, and the Oakland Raiders were pummeled by the New York Jets. Both teams were favored by too many points per the NFL betting odds, and road teams that were favored went 1-3 ATS last week.

The only wrong idea in this column was to doubt Buffalo. The Bills cruised to a win over Denver, and they showed the world they were for real after going into Dallas and beating the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. We won’t be doubting Buffalo again anytime soon.

GAMES TO AVOID IN WEEK 13

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +6 AT BALTIMORE RAVENS

This is one of the premier games of Week 13. Many will be looking to bet on this early afternoon tilt between two of the best teams in the league, and more than a few bettors will be scratching their heads at this line. San Francisco is tied with New England as the team with the best record in the league at 10-1, but the 49ers almost a touchdown underdog on the road per the NFL betting lines.

As we saw with Oakland last week, part of the reasoning behind this line is the difficulty West Coast teams typically have playing across country at 1 p.m. ET. However, the more important factor in this line is Lamar Jackson.

Jackson has been impeccable, and he is the current favorite to be named the NFL MVP at the end of the season. No team has figured out a way to stop him because of his athleticism, and San Francisco will be hard pressed to do the same on Sunday.

GREEN BAY PACKERS -6.5 AT NEW YORK GIANTS

The Packers are the most popular pick this week, and they are the most popular teaser pick too. Everyone is calling for Green Bay to bounce back after last week’s humiliating loss to San Francisco, as the Giants have lost seven in a row.

There are some things working in the Giants’ favor though. New York has lost four of its last five by a single score, and Daniel Jones hasn’t been terrible as a rookie. Jones has been inconsistent like most rookies are, but he hasn’t buried this team with mistakes either.

Green Bay doesn’t appear to be the team it was earlier in the year either. They have lost their last two home games by substantial margins, and there are undertones of locker room tension once again. Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers aren’t seeing eye to eye according to reports, and that has helped submarine this offense.

Not having Bryan Bulaga available for this game is a substantial loss for Green Bay too. Bulaga is one of the best offensive tackles in the game, and this offense’s production went in the tank without him last week. Even if he suits up, he’ll be limited, and the Giants could exploit mismatches along the offensive line.

NEW YORK JETS -3 AT CINCINNATI BENGALS

The red hot Jets are one of the most heaviest bet teams in Week 13. Gang Green have won three straight games after teetering on the ropes through the first half of the season, so many believe they will continue to turn things around. Sam Darnold is playing great football according to the stat sheet, but if you’re watching him, you know he has made some very iffy throws too.

Cincinnati have the worst pass defense in the country, so that should be exploited by Darnold. The second-year quarterback has played well over the last few weeks, but he is still checking down underneath way too much. Le’Veon Bell has been a massive disappointment as a running back, somewhat forcing Darnold’s hand, but this is exactly what teams want to do to Darnold.

Andy Dalton is back under center for Cincinnati, so the Bengals will be more competitive than they were under rookie Ryan Finley. Dalton is mocked nonstop by some websites for his mostly lackluster play, but he is certainly better than the other two options on the Bengals. He has the tools to pull off a surprising win.

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